Belief fusion is the principle of combining separate beliefs or bodies of evidence originating from different sources. Depending on the situation to be modelled, different belief fusion methods can be applied. Cumulative and averaging belief fusion is defined for fusing opinions in subjective logic, and for fusing belief functions in general. The principle of fission is the opposite of fusion, namely to eliminate the contribution of a specific belief from an already fused belief, with the purpose of deriving the remaining belief. This paper describes fission of cumulative belief as well as fission of averaging belief in subjective logic. These operators can for example be applied to belief revision in Bayesian belief networks, where the belief contribution of a given evidence source can be determined as a function of a given fused belief and its other contributing beliefs.

This monograph deals with adaptive supervised classification, using tools borrowed from statistical mechanics and information theory, stemming from the PACBayesian approach pioneered by David McAllester and applied to a conception of statistical learning theory forged by Vladimir Vapnik. Using convex analysis on the set of posterior probability measures, we show how to get local measures of the complexity of the classification model involving the relative entropy of posterior distributions with respect to Gibbs posterior measures. We then discuss relative bounds, comparing the generalization error of two classification rules, showing how the margin assumption of Mammen and Tsybakov can be replaced with some empirical measure of the covariance structure of the classification model.We show how to associate to any posterior distribution an effective temperature relating it to the Gibbs prior distribution with the same level of expected error rate, and how to estimate this effective temperature from data, resulting in an estimator whose expected error rate converges according to the best possible power of the sample size adaptively under any margin and parametric complexity assumptions. We describe and study an alternative selection scheme based on relative bounds between estimators, and present a two step localization technique which can handle the selection of a parametric model from a family of those. We show how to extend systematically all the results obtained in the inductive setting to transductive learning, and use this to improve Vapnik's generalization bounds, extending them to the case when the sample is made of independent non-identically distributed pairs of patterns and labels. Finally we review briefly the construction of Support Vector Machines and show how to derive generalization bounds for them, measuring the complexity either through the number of support vectors or through the value of the transductive or inductive margin.

Bayesian classification and regression with high order interactions is largely infeasible because Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) would need to be applied with a great many parameters, whose number increases rapidly with the order. In this paper we show how to make it feasible by effectively reducing the number of parameters, exploiting the fact that many interactions have the same values for all training cases. Our method uses a single ``compressed'' parameter to represent the sum of all parameters associated with a set of patterns that have the same value for all training cases. Using symmetric stable distributions as the priors of the original parameters, we can easily find the priors of these compressed parameters. We therefore need to deal only with a much smaller number of compressed parameters when training the model with MCMC. The number of compressed parameters may have converged before considering the highest possible order. After training the model, we can split these compressed parameters into the original ones as needed to make predictions for test cases. We show in detail how to compress parameters for logistic sequence prediction models. Experiments on both simulated and real data demonstrate that a huge number of parameters can indeed be reduced by our compression method.

We consider how an agent should update her uncertainty when it is represented by a set $\P$ of probability distributions and the agent observes that a random variable $X$ takes on value $x$, given that the agent makes decisions using the minimax criterion, perhaps the best-studied and most commonly-used criterion in the literature. We adopt a game-theoretic framework, where the agent plays against a bookie, who chooses some distribution from $\P$. We consider two reasonable games that differ in what the bookie knows when he makes his choice. Anomalies that have been observed before, like time inconsistency, can be understood as arising important because different games are being played, against bookies with different information. We characterize the important special cases in which the optimal decision rules according to the minimax criterion amount to either conditioning or simply ignoring the information. Finally, we consider the relationship between conditioning and calibration when uncertainty is described by sets of probabilities.

Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) have become a popular tool for computational analysis of biological data in a variety of domains. But, what exactly are they and how do they work? How can we use PGMs to discover patterns that are biologically relevant? And to what extent can PGMs help us formulate new hypotheses that are testable at the bench? This note sketches out some answers and illustrates the main ideas behind the statistical approach to biological pattern discovery.

This paper addresses a method to analyze the covert social network foundation hidden behind the terrorism disaster. It is to solve a node discovery problem, which means to discover a node, which functions relevantly in a social network, but escaped from monitoring on the presence and mutual relationship of nodes. The method aims at integrating the expert investigator's prior understanding, insight on the terrorists' social network nature derived from the complex graph theory, and computational data processing. The social network responsible for the 9/11 attack in 2001 is used to execute simulation experiment to evaluate the performance of the method.

The adoption of probabilistic models for the best individuals found so far is a powerful approach for evolutionary computation. Increasingly more complex models have been used by estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs), which often result better effectiveness on finding the global optima for hard optimization problems. Supervised and unsupervised learning of Bayesian networks are very effective options, since those models are able to capture interactions of high order among the variables of a problem. Diversity preservation, through niching techniques, has also shown to be very important to allow the identification of the problem structure as much as for keeping several global optima. Recently, clustering was evaluated as an effective niching technique for EDAs, but the performance of simpler low-order EDAs was not shown to be much improved by clustering, except for some simple multimodal problems. This work proposes and evaluates a combination operator guided by a measure from information theory which allows a clustered low-order EDA to effectively solve a comprehensive range of benchmark optimization problems.

Previous work in social network analysis (SNA) has modeled the existence of links from one entity to another, but not the attributes such as language content or topics on those links. We present the Author-Recipient-Topic (ART) model for social network analysis, which learns topic distributions based on the direction-sensitive messages sent between entities. The model builds on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and the Author-Topic (AT) model, adding the key attribute that distribution over topics is conditioned distinctly on both the sender and recipient---steering the discovery of topics according to the relationships between people. We give results on both the Enron email corpus and a researcher's email archive, providing evidence not only that clearly relevant topics are discovered, but that the ART model better predicts people's roles and gives lower perplexity on previously unseen messages. We also present the Role-Author-Recipient-Topic (RART) model, an extension to ART that explicitly represents people's roles.

Data mining allows the exploration of sequences of phenomena, whereas one usually tends to focus on isolated phenomena or on the relation between two phenomena. It offers invaluable tools for theoretical analyses and exploration of the structure of sentences, texts, dialogues, and speech. We report here the results of an attempt at using it for inspecting sequences of verbs from French accounts of road accidents. This analysis comes from an original approach of unsupervised training allowing the discovery of the structure of sequential data. The entries of the analyzer were only made of the verbs appearing in the sentences. It provided a classification of the links between two successive verbs into four distinct clusters, allowing thus text segmentation. We give here an interpretation of these clusters by applying a statistical analysis to independent semantic annotations.

We present a new local approximation algorithm for computing Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) and log-partition function for arbitrary exponential family distribution represented by a finite-valued pair-wise Markov random field (MRF), say $G$. Our algorithm is based on decomposition of $G$ into {\em appropriately} chosen small components; then computing estimates locally in each of these components and then producing a {\em good} global solution. We show that if the underlying graph $G$ either excludes some finite-sized graph as its minor (e.g. Planar graph) or has low doubling dimension (e.g. any graph with {\em geometry}), then our algorithm will produce solution for both questions within {\em arbitrary accuracy}. We present a message-passing implementation of our algorithm for MAP computation using self-avoiding walk of graph. In order to evaluate the computational cost of this implementation, we derive novel tight bounds on the size of self-avoiding walk tree for arbitrary graph. As a consequence of our algorithmic result, we show that the normalized log-partition function (also known as free-energy) for a class of {\em regular} MRFs will converge to a limit, that is computable to an arbitrary accuracy.