Scoring structures of undirected graphical models by means of evaluating the marginal likelihood is very hard. The main reason is the presence of the partition functionwhich is intractable to evaluate, let alone integrate over. We propose to approximate the marginal likelihood by employing two levels of approximation: we assume normality of the posterior (the Laplace approximation) and approximate allremaining intractable quantities using belief propagation and the linear response approximation.

We focus on the problem of estimating the graph structure associated with a discrete Markov random field.

Their machine counterparts have historically been unable to compete with this ability, until now.

Current road-traffic optimisation practice around the world is a combination of hand tuned policies with a small degree of automatic adaption. Even state-ofthe-art researchcontrollers need good models of the road traffic, which cannot be obtained directly from existing sensors. We use a policy-gradient reinforcement learningapproach to directly optimise the traffic signals, mapping currently deployed sensor observations to control signals. Our trained controllers are (theoretically) compatiblewith the traffic system used in Sydney and many other cities around the world. We apply two policy-gradient methods: (1) the recent natural actor-critic algorithm, and (2) a vanilla policy-gradient algorithm for comparison. Along the way we extend natural-actor critic approaches to work for distributed and online infinite-horizon problems.

The ill-posed nature of the MEG/EEG source localization problem requires the incorporation of prior assumptions when choosing an appropriate solution out of an infinite set of candidates. Bayesian methods are useful in this capacity because they allow these assumptions to be explicitly quantified. Recently, a number of empirical Bayesian approaches have been proposed that attempt a form of model selection by using the data to guide the search for an appropriate prior. While seemingly quite different in many respects, we apply a unifying framework based on automatic relevance determination (ARD) that elucidates various attributes of these methods and suggests directions for improvement. We also derive theoretical propertiesof this methodology related to convergence, local minima, and localization bias and explore connections with established algorithms.

We study the problem of parameter estimation in continuous density hidden Markov models (CD-HMMs) for automatic speech recognition (ASR). As in support vectormachines, we propose a learning algorithm based on the goal of margin maximization. Unlike earlier work on max-margin Markov networks, our approach is specifically geared to the modeling of real-valued observations (such as acoustic feature vectors) using Gaussian mixture models. Unlike previous discriminative frameworksfor ASR, such as maximum mutual information and minimum classification error, our framework leads to a convex optimization, without any spurious local minima. The objective function for large margin training of CD-HMMs is defined over a parameter space of positive semidefinite matrices. Its optimization can be performed efficiently with simple gradient-based methods thatscale well to large problems. We obtain competitive results for phonetic recognition on the TIMIT speech corpus.

Many neural areas, notably, the hippocampus, show structured, dynamical, population behavior such as coordinated oscillations.

We introduce binary matrix factorization, a novel model for unsupervised matrix decomposition.The decomposition is learned by fitting a nonparametric Bayesian probabilistic model with binary latent variables to a matrix of dyadic data. Unlike bi-clustering models, which assign each row or column to a single cluster based on a categorical hidden feature, our binary feature model reflects the prior belief that items and attributes can be associated with more than one latent cluster at a time. We provide simple learning and inference rules for this new model and show how to extend it to an infinite model in which the number of features is not a priori fixed but is allowed to grow with the size of the data.

Many problems that arise in machine learning domain deal with nonlinearity and quite often demand users to obtain global optimal solutions rather than local optimal ones. Optimization problems are inherent in machine learning algorithms and hence many methods in machine learning were inherited from the optimization literature. Popularly known as the initialization problem, the ideal set of parameters required will significantly depend on the given initialization values. The recently developed TRUST-TECH (TRansformation Under STability-reTaining Equilibria CHaracterization) methodology systematically explores the subspace of the parameters to obtain a complete set of local optimal solutions. In this thesis work, we propose TRUST-TECH based methods for solving several optimization and machine learning problems. Two stages namely, the local stage and the neighborhood-search stage, are repeated alternatively in the solution space to achieve improvements in the quality of the solutions. Our methods were tested on both synthetic and real datasets and the advantages of using this novel framework are clearly manifested. This framework not only reduces the sensitivity to initialization, but also allows the flexibility for the practitioners to use various global and local methods that work well for a particular problem of interest. Other hierarchical stochastic algorithms like evolutionary algorithms and smoothing algorithms are also studied and frameworks for combining these methods with TRUST-TECH have been proposed and evaluated on several test systems.

We present a new algorithm for probabilistic planning with no observability. Our algorithm, called Probabilistic-FF, extends the heuristic forward-search machinery of Conformant-FF to problems with probabilistic uncertainty about both the initial state and action effects. Specifically, Probabilistic-FF combines Conformant-FF's techniques with a powerful machinery for weighted model counting in (weighted) CNFs, serving to elegantly define both the search space and the heuristic function. Our evaluation of Probabilistic-FF shows its fine scalability in a range of probabilistic domains, constituting a several orders of magnitude improvement over previous results in this area. We use a problematic case to point out the main open issue to be addressed by further research.