We present a new statistical framework called hidden Markov Dirichlet process (HMDP) to jointly model the genetic recombinations among possibly infinite number of founders and the coalescence-with-mutation events in the resulting genealogies. TheHMDP posits that a haplotype of genetic markers is generated by a sequence of recombination events that select an ancestor for each locus from an unbounded set of founders according to a 1st-order Markov transition process. Conjoining this process with a mutation model, our method accommodates both between-lineage recombination and within-lineage sequence variations, and leads to a compact and natural interpretation of the population structure and inheritance process underlying haplotype data. We have developed an efficient sampling algorithm forHMDP based on a two-level nested Pólya urn scheme. On both simulated and real SNP haplotype data, our method performs competitively or significantly better than extant methods in uncovering the recombination hotspots along chromosomal loci;and in addition it also infers the ancestral genetic patterns and offers a highly accurate map of ancestral compositions of modern populations.

Planning in partially observable domains is a notoriously difficult problem. However, inmany real-world scenarios, planning can be simplified by decomposing the task into a hierarchy of smaller planning problems. Several approaches have been proposed to optimize a policy that decomposes according to a hierarchy specified a priori. In this paper, we investigate the problem of automatically discovering the hierarchy. More precisely, we frame the optimization of a hierarchical policy as a non-convex optimization problem that can be solved with general nonlinear solvers, a mixed-integer nonlinear approximation or a form of bounded hierarchical policyiteration. By encoding the hierarchical structure as variables of the optimization problem, we can automatically discover a hierarchy. Our method is flexible enough to allow any parts of the hierarchy to be specified based on prior knowledge while letting the optimization discover the unknown parts. It can also discover hierarchical policies, including recursive policies, that are more compact (potentially infinitely fewer parameters) and often easier to understand given the decomposition induced by the hierarchy.

Abstract Missing

Data sets that characterize human activity over time through collections of timestamped eventsor counts are of increasing interest in application areas as humancomputer interaction,video surveillance, and Web data analysis. We propose a nonparametric Bayesian framework for modeling collections of such data. In particular, we use a Dirichlet process framework for learning a set of intensity functions corresponding to different categories, which form a basis set for representing individualtime-periods (e.g., several days) depending on which categories the time-periods are assigned to. This allows the model to learn in a data-driven fashion what "factors" are generating the observations on a particular day, including (forexample) weekday versus weekend effects or day-specific effects corresponding tounique (single-day) occurrences of unusual behavior, sharing information where appropriate to obtain improved estimates of the behavior associated with each category. Applications to real-world data sets of count data involving both vehicles and people are used to illustrate the technique.

The switch 5t may depend on both the previous 5:71 and hkl.

Perceptual Bistability refers to the phenomenon of spontaneously switching between twoor more interpretations of an image under continuous viewing. Although switchingbehavior is increasingly well characterized, the origins remain elusive. We propose that perceptual switching naturally arises from the brain's search for best interpretations while performing Bayesian inference. In particular, we propose that the brain explores a posterior distribution over image interpretations ata rapid time scale via a sampling-like process and updates its interpretation when a sampled interpretation is better than the discounted value of its current interpretation. Weformalize the theory, explicitly derive switching rate distributions and discuss qualitative properties of the theory including the effect of changes in the posterior distribution on switching rates. Finally, predictions of the theory are shown to be consistent with measured changes in human switching dynamics to Necker cube stimuli induced by context.

Propagation based methods are developed and rigorously assessed.

Starting with the work of Jaakkola and Haussler, a variety of approaches have been proposed for coupling domain-specific generative models with statistical learning methods. The link is established by a kernel function which provides a similarity measure based inherently on the underlying model. In computational biology, the full promise of this framework has rarely ever been exploited, as most kernels are derived from very generic models, such as sequence profiles or hidden Markov models. Here, we introduce the MTreeMix kernel, which is based on a generative model tailored to the underlying biological mechanism.

Computation of a satisfactory control policy for a Markov decision process when the parameters of the model are not exactly known is a problem encountered in many practical applications. The traditional robust approach is based on a worstcase analysisand may lead to an overly conservative policy. In this paper we consider thetradeoff between nominal performance and the worst case performance over all possible models. Based on parametric linear programming, we propose a method that computes the whole set of Pareto efficient policies in the performancerobustness planewhen only the reward parameters are subject to uncertainty. In the more general case when the transition probabilities are also subject to error, we show that the strategy with the "optimal" tradeoff might be non-Markovian and hence is in general not tractable.

However, most of these techniques have been developed for univariate Classification problems, or Class label classification with a structured input [22, 23, 24].