Previous work in social network analysis (SNA) has modeled the existence of links from one entity to another, but not the attributes such as language content or topics on those links. We present the Author-Recipient-Topic (ART) model for social network analysis, which learns topic distributions based on the direction-sensitive messages sent between entities. The model builds on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and the Author-Topic (AT) model, adding the key attribute that distribution over topics is conditioned distinctly on both the sender and recipient---steering the discovery of topics according to the relationships between people. We give results on both the Enron email corpus and a researcher's email archive, providing evidence not only that clearly relevant topics are discovered, but that the ART model better predicts people's roles and gives lower perplexity on previously unseen messages. We also present the Role-Author-Recipient-Topic (RART) model, an extension to ART that explicitly represents people's roles.

Data mining allows the exploration of sequences of phenomena, whereas one usually tends to focus on isolated phenomena or on the relation between two phenomena. It offers invaluable tools for theoretical analyses and exploration of the structure of sentences, texts, dialogues, and speech. We report here the results of an attempt at using it for inspecting sequences of verbs from French accounts of road accidents. This analysis comes from an original approach of unsupervised training allowing the discovery of the structure of sequential data. The entries of the analyzer were only made of the verbs appearing in the sentences. It provided a classification of the links between two successive verbs into four distinct clusters, allowing thus text segmentation. We give here an interpretation of these clusters by comparing the statistical distribution of independent semantic annotations.

We present a new local approximation algorithm for computing Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) and log-partition function for arbitrary exponential family distribution represented by a finite-valued pair-wise Markov random field (MRF), say $G$. Our algorithm is based on decomposition of $G$ into {\em appropriately} chosen small components; then computing estimates locally in each of these components and then producing a {\em good} global solution. We show that if the underlying graph $G$ either excludes some finite-sized graph as its minor (e.g. Planar graph) or has low doubling dimension (e.g. any graph with {\em geometry}), then our algorithm will produce solution for both questions within {\em arbitrary accuracy}. We present a message-passing implementation of our algorithm for MAP computation using self-avoiding walk of graph. In order to evaluate the computational cost of this implementation, we derive novel tight bounds on the size of self-avoiding walk tree for arbitrary graph. As a consequence of our algorithmic result, we show that the normalized log-partition function (also known as free-energy) for a class of {\em regular} MRFs will converge to a limit, that is computable to an arbitrary accuracy.

The Bayesian framework is a well-studied and successful framework for inductive reasoning, which includes hypothesis testing and confirmation, parameter estimation, sequence prediction, classification, and regression. But standard statistical guidelines for choosing the model class and prior are not always available or fail, in particular in complex situations. Solomonoff completed the Bayesian framework by providing a rigorous, unique, formal, and universal choice for the model class and the prior. We discuss in breadth how and in which sense universal (non-i.i.d.) sequence prediction solves various (philosophical) problems of traditional Bayesian sequence prediction. We show that Solomonoff's model possesses many desirable properties: Strong total and weak instantaneous bounds, and in contrast to most classical continuous prior densities has no zero p(oste)rior problem, i.e. can confirm universal hypotheses, is reparametrization and regrouping invariant, and avoids the old-evidence and updating problem. It even performs well (actually better) in non-computable environments.

This paper presents a multi-sensor fusion strategy for a novel road-matching method designed to support real-time navigational features within advanced driving-assistance systems. Managing multihypotheses is a useful strategy for the road-matching problem. The multi-sensor fusion and multi-modal estimation are realized using Dynamical Bayesian Network. Experimental results, using data from Antilock Braking System (ABS) sensors, a differential Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver and an accurate digital roadmap, illustrate the performances of this approach, especially in ambiguous situations.

This paper proposes a new neuro-rough model for modelling the risk of HIV from demographic data. The model is formulated using Bayesian framework and trained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and Metropolis criterion. When the model was tested to estimate the risk of HIV infection given the demographic data it was found to give the accuracy of 62% as opposed to 58% obtained from a Bayesian formulated rough set model trained using Markov chain Monte Carlo method and 62% obtained from a Bayesian formulated multi-layered perceptron (MLP) model trained using hybrid Monte. The proposed model is able to combine the accuracy of the Bayesian MLP model and the transparency of Bayesian rough set model. Keywords: Neuro-rough model, multi-layered perceptron, Bayesian, HIV modelling Introduction The role of machine learning is to be able to make predictions given a set of inputs.

Numerous formalisms and dedicated algorithms have been designed in the last decades to model and solve decision making problems. Some formalisms, such as constraint networks, can express "simple" decision problems, while others are designed to take into account uncertainties, unfeasible decisions, and utilities. Even in a single formalism, several variants are often proposed to model different types of uncertainty (probability, possibility...) or utility (additive or not). In this article, we introduce an algebraic graphical model that encompasses a large number of such formalisms: (1) we first adapt previous structures from Friedman, Chu and Halpern for representing uncertainty, utility, and expected utility in order to deal with generic forms of sequential decision making; (2) on these structures, we then introduce composite graphical models that express information via variables linked by "local" functions, thanks to conditional independence; (3) on these graphical models, we finally define a simple class of queries which can represent various scenarios in terms of observabilities and controllabilities. A natural decision-tree semantics for such queries is completed by an equivalent operational semantics, which induces generic algorithms. The proposed framework, called the Plausibility-Feasibility-Utility (PFU) framework, not only provides a better understanding of the links between existing formalisms, but it also covers yet unpublished frameworks (such as possibilistic influence diagrams) and unifies formalisms such as quantified boolean formulas and influence diagrams. Our backtrack and variable elimination generic algorithms are a first step towards unified algorithms.

We present and analyse three online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and compare them with the Baldi-Chauvin Algorithm. Using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a measure of generalisation error we draw learning curves in simplified situations. The performance for learning drifting concepts of one of the presented algorithms is analysed and compared with the Baldi-Chauvin algorithm in the same situations. A brief discussion about learning and symmetry breaking based on our results is also presented.

This dissertation presents several new methods of supervised and unsupervised learning of word sense disambiguation models. The supervised methods focus on performing model searches through a space of probabilistic models, and the unsupervised methods rely on the use of Gibbs Sampling and the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. In both the supervised and unsupervised case, the Naive Bayesian model is found to perform well. An explanation for this success is presented in terms of learning rates and bias-variance decompositions.

In this article, we work towards the goal of developing agents that can learn to act in complex worlds. We develop a probabilistic, relational planning rule representation that compactly models noisy, nondeterministic action effects, and show how such rules can be effectively learned. Through experiments in simple planning domains and a 3D simulated blocks world with realistic physics, we demonstrate that this learning algorithm allows agents to effectively model world dynamics.