Many recent studies analyze how data from different modalities can be combined. Often this is modeled as a system that optimally combines several sources of information about the same variable. However, it has long been realized that this information combining depends on the interpretation of the data. Two cues that are perceived by different modalities can have different causal relationships: (1) They can both have the same cause, in this case we should fully integrate both cues into a joint estimate.

Data sets that characterize human activity over time through collections of timestamped events or counts are of increasing interest in application areas as humancomputer interaction, video surveillance, and Web data analysis. We propose a nonparametric Bayesian framework for modeling collections of such data. In particular, we use a Dirichlet process framework for learning a set of intensity functions corresponding to different categories, which form a basis set for representing individual time-periods (e.g., several days) depending on which categories the time-periods are assigned to. This allows the model to learn in a data-driven fashion what "factors" are generating the observations on a particular day, including (for example) weekday versus weekend effects or day-specific effects corresponding to unique (single-day) occurrences of unusual behavior, sharing information where appropriate to obtain improved estimates of the behavior associated with each category. Applications to real-world data sets of count data involving both vehicles and people are used to illustrate the technique.

The additive clustering model is widely used to infer the features of a set of stimuli from their similarities, on the assumption that similarity is a weighted linear function of common features. This paper develops a fully Bayesian formulation of the additive clustering model, using methods from nonparametric Bayesian statistics to allow the number of features to vary. We use this to explore several approaches to parameter estimation, showing that the nonparametric Bayesian approach provides a straightforward way to obtain estimates of both the number of features used in producing similarity judgments and their importance.

We propose a new technique for sampling the solutions of combinatorial problems in a near-uniform manner. We focus on problems specified as a Boolean formula, i.e., on SAT instances. Sampling for SAT problems has been shown to have interesting connections with probabilistic reasoning, making practical sampling algorithms for SAT highly desirable. The best current approaches are based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, which have some practical limitations.

We present a probabilistic model applied to the fMRI video rating prediction task of the Pittsburgh Brain Activity Interpretation Competition (PBAIC) [2]. Our goal is to predict a time series of subjective, semantic ratings of a movie given functional MRI data acquired during viewing by three subjects. Our method uses conditionally trained Gaussian Markov random fields, which model both the relationships between the subjects' fMRI voxel measurements and the ratings, as well as the dependencies of the ratings across time steps and between subjects. We also employed nontraditional methods for feature selection and regularization that exploit the spatial structure of voxel activity in the brain. The model displayed good performance in predicting the scored ratings for the three subjects in test data sets, and a variant of this model was the third place entrant to the 2006 PBAIC.

We describe Hidden Semi-Markov Support Vector Machines (SHM SVMs), an extension of HM SVMs to semi-Markov chains. This allows us to predict segmentations of sequences based on segment-based features measuring properties such as the length of the segment. We propose a novel technique to partition the problem into sub-problems. The independently obtained partial solutions can then be recombined in an efficient way, which allows us to solve label sequence learning problems with several thousands of labeled sequences. We have tested our algorithm for predicting gene structures, an important problem in computational biology. Results on a well-known model organism illustrate the great potential of SHM SVMs in computational biology.

We consider the problem of inferring the structure of a network from cooccurrence data: observations that indicate which nodes occur in a signaling pathway but do not directly reveal node order within the pathway. This problem is motivated by network inference problems arising in computational biology and communication systems, in which it is difficult or impossible to obtain precise time ordering information. Without order information, every permutation of the activated nodes leads to a different feasible solution, resulting in combinatorial explosion of the feasible set. However, physical principles underlying most networked systems suggest that not all feasible solutions are equally likely. Intuitively, nodes that cooccur more frequently are probably more closely connected. Building on this intuition, we model path co-occurrences as randomly shuffled samples of a random walk on the network. We derive a computationally efficient network inference algorithm and, via novel concentration inequalities for importance sampling estimators, prove that a polynomial complexity Monte Carlo version of the algorithm converges with high probability.

Computation of a satisfactory control policy for a Markov decision process when the parameters of the model are not exactly known is a problem encountered in many practical applications. The traditional robust approach is based on a worstcase analysis and may lead to an overly conservative policy. In this paper we consider the tradeoff between nominal performance and the worst case performance over all possible models. Based on parametric linear programming, we propose a method that computes the whole set of Pareto efficient policies in the performancerobustness plane when only the reward parameters are subject to uncertainty. In the more general case when the transition probabilities are also subject to error, we show that the strategy with the "optimal" tradeoff might be non-Markovian and hence is in general not tractable.

Go is an ancient board game that poses unique opportunities and challenges for AI and machine learning. Here we develop a machine learning approach to Go, and related board games, focusing primarily on the problem of learning a good evaluation function in a scalable way. Scalability is essential at multiple levels, from the library of local tactical patterns, to the integration of patterns across the board, to the size of the board itself. The system we propose is capable of automatically learning the propensity of local patterns from a library of games. Propensity and other local tactical information are fed into a recursive neural network, derived from a Bayesian network architecture.

Many unsupervised learning problems can be expressed as a form of matrix factorization, reconstructing an observed data matrix as the product of two matrices of latent variables. A standard challenge in solving these problems is determining the dimensionality of the latent matrices. Nonparametric Bayesian matrix factorization is one way of dealing with this challenge, yielding a posterior distribution over possible factorizations of unbounded dimensionality. A drawback to this approach is that posterior estimation is typically done using Gibbs sampling, which can be slow for large problems and when conjugate priors cannot be used. As an alternative, we present a particle filter for posterior estimation in nonparametric Bayesian matrix factorization models. We illustrate this approach with two matrix factorization models and show favorable performance relative to Gibbs sampling.