A general modeling framework is proposed that unifies nonparametric-Bayesian models, topic-models and Bayesian networks. This class of infinite state Bayes nets (ISBN) can be viewed as directed networks of'hierarchical Dirichlet processes' (HDPs) where the domain of the variables can be structured (e.g.

We present a novel Bayesian model for semi-supervised paIt-of-speech tagging.

We address the problem of factorial learning which associates a set of latent causes or features with the observed data. Factorial models usually assume that each feature has a single occurrence in a given data point. However, there are data such as images where latent features have multiple occurrences, e.g. a visual object class can have multiple instances shown in the same image. To deal with such cases, we present a probability model over non-negative integer valued matrices with possibly unbounded number of columns. This model can play the role of the prior in an nonparametric Bayesian learning scenario where both the latent features and the number of their occurrences are unknown. We use this prior together with a likelihood model for unsupervised learning from images using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference algorithm.

Motivated by stochastic systems in which observed evidence and conditional dependencies betweenstates of the network change over time, and certain quantities of interest (marginal distributions, likelihood estimates etc.) must be updated, we study the problem of adaptive inference in tree-structured Bayesian networks. We describe an algorithm for adaptive inference that handles a broad range of changes to the network and is able to maintain marginal distributions, MAP estimates, and data likelihoods in all expected logarithmic time. We give an implementation of our algorithm and provide experiments that show that the algorithm can yield up to two orders of magnitude speedups on answering queries and responding to dynamic changesover the sum-product algorithm.

When training and test samples follow different input distributions (i.e., the situation called \emph{covariate shift}), the maximum likelihood estimator is known to lose its consistency. For regaining consistency, the log-likelihood terms need to be weighted according to the \emph{importance} (i.e., the ratio of test and training input densities). Thus, accurately estimating the importance is one of the key tasks in covariate shift adaptation. A naive approach is to first estimate training and test input densities and then estimate the importance by the ratio of the density estimates. However, since density estimation is a hard problem, this approach tends to perform poorly especially in high dimensional cases. In this paper, we propose a direct importance estimation method that does not require the input density estimates. Our method is equipped with a natural model selection procedure so tuning parameters such as the kernel width can be objectively optimized. This is an advantage over a recently developed method of direct importance estimation. Simulations illustrate the usefulness of our approach.

We provide a provably efficient algorithm for learning Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with continuous state and action spaces in the online setting. Specifically, we take a model-based approach and show that a special type of online linear regression allows us to learn MDPs with (possibly kernalized) linearly parameterized dynamics. This result builds on Kearns and Singh's work that provides a provably efficient algorithm for finite state MDPs. Our approach is not restricted to the linear setting, and is applicable to other classes of continuous MDPs.

We propose an extended probabilistic model for human perception. We argue that in many circumstances, human observers simultaneously evaluate sensory evidence under different hypotheses regarding the underlying physical process that might have generated the sensory information. Within this context, inference can be optimal if the observer weighs each hypothesis according to the correct belief in that hypothesis. But if the observer commits to a particular hypothesis, the belief in that hypothesis is converted into subjective certainty, and subsequent perceptual behavior is suboptimal, conditioned only on the chosen hypothesis. We demonstrate that this framework can explain psychophysical data of a recently reported decision-estimation experiment. The model well accounts for the data, predicting the same estimation bias as a consequence of the preceding decision step. The power of the framework is that it has no free parameters except the degree of the observer's uncertainty about its internal sensory representation. All other parameters are defined by the particular experiment which allows us to make quantitative predictions of human perception to two modifications of the original experiment.

When predicting class labels for objects within a relational database, it is often helpful to consider a model for relationships: this allows for information between class labels to be shared and to improve prediction performance. However, there are different ways by which objects can be related within a relational database. One traditional way corresponds to a Markov network structure: each existing relation is represented by an undirected edge. This encodes that, conditioned on input features, each object label is independent of other object labels given its neighbors in the graph. However, there is no reason why Markov networks should be the only representation of choice for symmetric dependence structures. Here we discuss the case when relationships are postulated to exist due to hidden common causes.We discuss how the resulting graphical model differs from Markov networks, and how it describes different types of real-world relational processes. A Bayesian nonparametric classification model is built upon this graphical representation andevaluated with several empirical studies.

We investigate a family of inference problems on Markov models, where many sample paths are drawn from a Markov chain and partial information is revealed to an observer who attempts to reconstruct the sample paths. We present algorithms andhardness results for several variants of this problem which arise by revealing differentinformation to the observer and imposing different requirements for the reconstruction of sample paths. Our algorithms are analogous to the classical Viterbialgorithm for Hidden Markov Models, which finds the single most probable sample path given a sequence of observations. Our work is motivated by an important application in ecology: inferring bird migration paths from a large database of observations.

Many formal models of cognition implicitly use subjective probability distributions to capture the assumptions of human learners.