Feature extraction is one of the fundamental challenges in improving the accuracy of document classification. While there has been a large body of research literature on document classification, most existing approaches either do not have a high classification accuracy or require massive training sets. In this paper, we propose a simple feature extraction algorithm that can achieve high document classification accuracy in the context of development-centric topics. Our feature extraction algorithm exploits two distinct aspects in development-centric topics: most of these topics tend to be very focused (unlike semantically hard classification topics such as chemistry or banks) due to local language and cultural underpinnings in these topics, the authentic pages tend to use several region specific features. Our algorithm uses a combination of popularity and rarity as two separate metrics to extract features that describe a topic. Given a topic, our output feature set comprises of: (i) a list of popular keywords closely related to the topic; (ii) a list of rare keywords closely related to the topic. We show that a simple joint classifier based on these two feature sets can achieve high classification accuracy while each feature sub-set in itself is insufficient. We have tested our algorithm across a wide range of development-centric topics.

The correct recognition of behaviours based on sensor observations in a smart home is a challenging problem; the sensor observations themselves can be noisy, and the pattern activity seen for a behaviour is rarely identical for different occurrences of the behaviour. For this reason, probabilistic methods such as Hidden Markov Models are preferred over symbolic reasoning approaches. However, these models do not deal well with interleaved behaviours, nor do they allow small variations in behaviour to be detected as abnormal, although this might be useful for the smart home, since changes in ingrained habit could be early signs of illness. We propose methods for using Allen's temporal relations in order to solve these problems, and demonstrate how they can be used to recognise the interleaving of different behaviours, as well as to reason about behaviours that are frequently seen together, and therefore form a behavioural pattern or habit. In this way we have been able to extend our behaviour recognition system to recognise unusual presentations of behaviours.

We present an exact dynamic programming solution for a finite-horizon decentralized two-player Markov decision process, where player 1 only has access to its own states, while player 2 has access to both player’s states but cannot affect player 1’s states. The solution is obtained by solving several centralized partially-observable Markov decision processes. We then conclude with several computational examples.

Many probabilistic models introduce strong dependencies between variables using a latent multivariate Gaussian distribution or a Gaussian process. We present a new Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for performing inference in models with multivariate Gaussian priors. Its key properties are: 1) it has simple, generic code applicable to many models, 2) it has no free parameters, 3) it works well for a variety of Gaussian process based models. These properties make our method ideal for use while model building, removing the need to spend time deriving and tuning updates for more complex algorithms.

The paper investigates parameterized approximate message-passing schemes that are based on bounded inference and are inspired by Pearls belief propagation algorithm (BP). We start with the bounded inference mini-clustering algorithm and then move to the iterative scheme called Iterative Join-Graph Propagation (IJGP), that combines both iteration and bounded inference. Algorithm IJGP belongs to the class of Generalized Belief Propagation algorithms, a framework that allowed connections with approximate algorithms from statistical physics and is shown empirically to surpass the performance of mini-clustering and belief propagation, as well as a number of other state-of-the-art algorithms on several classes of networks. We also provide insight into the accuracy of iterative BP and IJGP by relating these algorithms to well known classes of constraint propagation schemes.

In Newcomb's paradox you choose to receive either the contents of a particular closed box, or the contents of both that closed box and another one. Before you choose, a prediction algorithm deduces your choice, and fills the two boxes based on that deduction. Newcomb's paradox is that game theory appears to provide two conflicting recommendations for what choice you should make in this scenario. We analyze Newcomb's paradox using a recent extension of game theory in which the players set conditional probability distributions in a Bayes net. We show that the two game theory recommendations in Newcomb's scenario have different presumptions for what Bayes net relates your choice and the algorithm's prediction. We resolve the paradox by proving that these two Bayes nets are incompatible. We also show that the accuracy of the algorithm's prediction, the focus of much previous work, is irrelevant. In addition we show that Newcomb's scenario only provides a contradiction between game theory's expected utility and dominance principles if one is sloppy in specifying the underlying Bayes net. We also show that Newcomb's paradox is time-reversal invariant; both the paradox and its resolution are unchanged if the algorithm makes its `prediction' after you make your choice rather than before.

We introduce supervised latent Dirichlet allocation (sLDA), a statistical model of labelled documents. The model accommodates a variety of response types. We derive an approximate maximum-likelihood procedure for parameter estimation, which relies on variational methods to handle intractable posterior expectations. Prediction problems motivate this research: we use the fitted model to predict response values for new documents. We test sLDA on two real-world problems: movie ratings predicted from reviews, and the political tone of amendments in the U.S. Senate based on the amendment text. We illustrate the benefits of sLDA versus modern regularized regression, as well as versus an unsupervised LDA analysis followed by a separate regression.

The syntactic topic model (STM) is a Bayesian nonparametric model of language that discovers latent distributions of words (topics) that are both semantically and syntactically coherent. The STM models dependency parsed corpora where sentences are grouped into documents. It assumes that each word is drawn from a latent topic chosen by combining document-level features and the local syntactic context. Each document has a distribution over latent topics, as in topic models, which provides the semantic consistency. Each element in the dependency parse tree also has a distribution over the topics of its children, as in latent-state syntax models, which provides the syntactic consistency. These distributions are convolved so that the topic of each word is likely under both its document and syntactic context. We derive a fast posterior inference algorithm based on variational methods. We report qualitative and quantitative studies on both synthetic data and hand-parsed documents. We show that the STM is a more predictive model of language than current models based only on syntax or only on topics.

The methodology of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is applied for assessment of newborn brain maturity from sleep EEG. In theory this methodology provides the most accurate assessments of uncertainty in decisions. However, the existing BMA techniques have been shown providing biased assessments in the absence of some prior information enabling to explore model parameter space in details within a reasonable time. The lack in details leads to disproportional sampling from the posterior distribution. In case of the EEG assessment of brain maturity, BMA results can be biased because of the absence of information about EEG feature importance. In this paper we explore how the posterior information about EEG features can be used in order to reduce a negative impact of disproportional sampling on BMA performance. We use EEG data recorded from sleeping newborns to test the efficiency of the proposed BMA technique.

Recently, new approaches to adaptive control have sought to reformulate the problem as a minimization of a relative entropy criterion to obtain tractable solutions. In particular, it has been shown that minimizing the expected deviation from the causal input-output dependencies of the true plant leads to a new promising stochastic control rule called the Bayesian control rule. This work proves the convergence of the Bayesian control rule under two sufficient assumptions: boundedness, which is an ergodicity condition; and consistency, which is an instantiation of the sure-thing principle.