Maximum A Posteriori inference in graphical models is often solved via message-passing algorithms, such as the junction-tree algorithm, or loopy belief-propagation. The exact solution to this problem is well known to be exponential in the size of the model's maximal cliques after it is triangulated, while approximate inference is typically exponential in the size of the model's factors. In this paper, we take advantage of the fact that many models have maximal cliques that are larger than their constituent factors, and also of the fact that many factors consist entirely of latent variables (i.e., they do not depend on an observation). This is a common case in a wide variety of applications, including grids, trees, and ring-structured models. In such cases, we are able to decrease the exponent of complexity for message-passing by 0.5 for both exact and approximate inference.

Recent studies in the field of human vision science suggest that the human responses to the stimuli on a visual display are non-deterministic. People may attend to different locations on the same visual input at the same time. Based on this knowledge, we propose a new stochastic model of visual attention by introducing a dynamic Bayesian network to predict the likelihood of where humans typically focus on a video scene. The proposed model is composed of a dynamic Bayesian network with 4 layers. Our model provides a framework that simulates and combines the visual saliency response and the cognitive state of a person to estimate the most probable attended regions. Sample-based inference with Markov chain Monte-Carlo based particle filter and stream processing with multi-core processors enable us to estimate human visual attention in near real time. Experimental results have demonstrated that our model performs significantly better in predicting human visual attention compared to the previous deterministic models.

We present a novel framework for learning to interpret and generate language using only perceptual context as supervision. We demonstrate its capabilities by developing a system that learns to sportscast simulated robot soccer games in both English and Korean without any language-specific prior knowledge. Training employs only ambiguous supervision consisting of a stream of descriptive textual comments and a sequence of events extracted from the simulation trace. The system simultaneously establishes correspondences between individual comments and the events that they describe while building a translation model that supports both parsing and generation. We also present a novel algorithm for learning which events are worth describing. Human evaluations of the generated commentaries indicate they are of reasonable quality and in some cases even on par with those produced by humans for our limited domain.

Decentralized planning in uncertain environments is a complex task generally dealt with by using a decision-theoretic approach, mainly through the framework of Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (DEC-POMDPs). Although DEC-POMDPS are a general and powerful modeling tool, solving them is a task with an overwhelming complexity that can be doubly exponential. In this paper, we study an alternate formulation of DEC-POMDPs relying on a sequence-form representation of policies. From this formulation, we show how to derive Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) problems that, once solved, give exact optimal solutions to the DEC-POMDPs. We show that these MILPs can be derived either by using some combinatorial characteristics of the optimal solutions of the DEC-POMDPs or by using concepts borrowed from game theory. Through an experimental validation on classical test problems from the DEC-POMDP literature, we compare our approach to existing algorithms. Results show that mathematical programming outperforms dynamic programming but is less efficient than forward search, except for some particular problems. The main contributions of this work are the use of mathematical programming for DEC-POMDPs and a better understanding of DEC-POMDPs and of their solutions. Besides, we argue that our alternate representation of DEC-POMDPs could be helpful for designing novel algorithms looking for approximate solutions to DEC-POMDPs.

Probabilistic matrix factorization (PMF) is a powerful method for modeling data associated with pairwise relationships, finding use in collaborative filtering, computational biology, and document analysis, among other areas. In many domains, there is additional information that can assist in prediction. For example, when modeling movie ratings, we might know when the rating occurred, where the user lives, or what actors appear in the movie. It is difficult, however, to incorporate this side information into the PMF model. We propose a framework for incorporating side information by coupling together multiple PMF problems via Gaussian process priors. We replace scalar latent features with functions that vary over the space of side information. The GP priors on these functions require them to vary smoothly and share information. We successfully use this new method to predict the scores of professional basketball games, where side information about the venue and date of the game are relevant for the outcome.

Current statistical models for structured prediction make simplifying assumptions about the underlying output graph structure, such as assuming a low-order Markov chain, because exact inference becomes intractable as the tree-width of the underlying graph increases. Approximate inference algorithms, on the other hand, force one to trade off representational power with computational efficiency. In this paper, we propose two new types of probabilistic graphical models, large margin Boltzmann machines (LMBMs) and large margin sigmoid belief networks (LMSBNs), for structured prediction. LMSBNs in particular allow a very fast inference algorithm for arbitrary graph structures that runs in polynomial time with a high probability. This probability is data-distribution dependent and is maximized in learning. The new approach overcomes the representation-efficiency trade-off in previous models and allows fast structured prediction with complicated graph structures. We present results from applying a fully connected model to multi-label scene classification and demonstrate that the proposed approach can yield significant performance gains over current state-of-the-art methods.

A key challenge for policymakers in many developing countries is to decide which intervention or collection of interventions works best to improve learning outcomes in their schools. Our aim is to develop a causal model that explains student learning outcomes in terms of observable characteristics as well as conditions and processes difficult to observe directly. We start with a theoretical model based on the results of previous research, direct experience and experts’ knowledge in the field. This model is then refined through application of supervised learning methods to available data sets. Once calibrated with local data in a country, the model estimates the probability that a given intervention would affect learning outcomes.

We have adapted an expert system of medical diagnosis for use by low to mid-level health workers in remote and rural locations. Key to the successful deployment of this expert system is the rapid adaptation of the database and clinical interface for use in specific regions and by varying user skill.

Food shortages are increasing in many areas of the world. In this paper, we consider the problem of understanding the causal relationships between socioeconomic factors in a developing-world household and their risk of experiencing famine. We analyse the extent to which it is possible to predict famine in a household based on these factors, looking at a data collected from 5404 households in Uganda. To do this we use a set of causal structure learning algorithms, employed as a committee that votes on the causal relationships between the variables. We contrast prediction accuracy of famine based on feature sets suggested by our prior knowledge and by the models we learn.

On interactive surfaces, an accurate system calibration is crucial for a precise user interaction. Today, geometric distortions are eliminated by a static calibration. However, this calibration is specific to a user’s posture, and parallax distortions occur if this changes (i.e. if the user moves or if multiple users take turns). Within this paper, we describe an approach to model automatic online re-calibration to cope with changing viewpoints by using Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDP). Hereby, the viewpoint is stochastically deducted from the precision of user interactions on the surface. To enable the implementation on embedded systems, a small model is defined using states and observations, which are formulated relative to the current assumed viewpoint. We show the structure of a family of models, that can be generated automatically based on the user’s position probability and pointing accuracy.