There have been many efforts to identify causal graphical features such as directed edges between random variables from observational data. Recently, Tian et al. proposed a new dynamic programming algorithm which computes marginalized posterior probabilities of directed edge features over all the possible structures in O( n 3 n ) time when the number of parents per node is bounded by a constant, where n is the number of variables of interest. However the main drawback of this approach is that deciding a single appropriate threshold for the existence of the directed edge feature is difficult due to the scale difference of the posterior probabilities between the directed edges forming v- structures and the directed edges not forming v -structures. We claim that computing posterior probabilities of both adjacencies and v -structures is necessary and more effective for discovering causal graphical features, since it allows us to find a single appropriate decision threshold for the existence of the feature that we are testing. For efficient computation, we provide a novel dynamic programming algorithm which computes the posterior probabilities of all of n ( n – 1)/2 adjacency and n ( n –1 choose 2) v -structure features in O( n 3 * 3 n ) time.

We explore the relationship between two approaches to rationalizing voting rules: the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) framework originally suggested by Condorcet and recently studied by Conitzer, Rognlie, and Xia, and the distance rationalizability (DR) framework of Elkind, Faliszewski, and Slinko. The former views voting as an attempt to reconstruct the correct ordering of the candidates given noisy estimates (i.e., votes), while the latter explains voting as search for the nearest consensus outcome. We provide conditions under which an MLE interpretation of a voting rule coincides with its DR interpretation, and classify a number of classic voting rules, such as Kemeny, Plurality, Borda and Single Transferable Vote (STV), according to how well they fit each of these frameworks. The classification we obtain is more precise than the ones that result from using MLE or DR alone: indeed, we show that the MLE approach can be used to guide our search for a more refined notion of distance rationalizability and vice versa.

We introduce a new discriminative piecewise linear model for classification. A two-step method is developed to construct the model. In the first step, we sample some boundary points that lie between positive and negative data, as well as corresponding directions from negative data to positive data. The sampling result gives a discriminative nonparametric decision surface, which preserves enough information to correctly classify all training data. To simplify this surface, in the second step we propose a nonparametric approach for linear surface segmentation using Dirichlet process mixtures. The final result is a piecewise linear model, in which the number of linear surface pieces is automatically determined by the Bayesian inference according to data. Experiments on both synthetic and real data verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.

We consider the task of assigning experts from a portfolio of specialists in order to solve a set of tasks. We apply a Bayesian model which combines collaborative filtering with a feature-based description of tasks and experts to yield a general framework for managing a portfolio of experts. The model learns an embedding of tasks and problems into a latent space in which affinity is measured by the inner product. The model can be trained incrementally and can track non-stationary data, tracking potentially changing expert and task characteristics. The approach allows us to use a principled decision theoretic framework for expert selection, allowing the user to choose a utility function that best suits their objectives. The model component for taking into account the performance feedback data is pluggable, allowing flexibility. We apply the model to manage a portfolio of algorithms to solve hard combinatorial problems. This is a well studied area and we demonstrate a large improvement on the state of the art in one domain (constraint solving) and in a second domain (combinatorial auctions) created a portfolio that performed significantly better than any single algorithm.

Relational Markov Decision Processes (MDP) are a useful abstraction for stochastic planning problems since one can develop abstract solutions for them that are independent of domain size or instantiation. While there has been an increased interest in developing relational fully observable MDPs, there has been very little work on relational partially observable MDPs (POMDP), which deal with uncertainty in problem states in addition to stochastic action effects. This paper provides a concrete formalization of relational POMDPs making several technical contributions toward their solution. First, we show that to maintain correctness one must distinguish between quantification over states and quantification over belief states; this implies that solutions based on value iteration are inherently limited to the finite horizon case. Second, we provide a symbolic dynamic programing algorithm for finite horizon relational POMDPs, solving them at an abstract level, by lifting the propositional incremental pruning algorithm. Third, we show that this algorithm can be implemented using first order decision diagrams, a compact representation for functions over relational structures, that has been recently used to solve relational MDPs.

Recent advancements in model-based reinforcement learning have shown that the dynamics of many structured domains (e.g. DBNs) can be learned with tractable sample complexity, despite their exponentially large state spaces. Unfortunately, these algorithms all require access to a planner that computes a near optimal policy, and while many traditional MDP algorithms make this guarantee, their computation time grows with the number of states. We show how to replace these over-matched planners with a class of sample-based planners — whose computation time is independent of the number of states — without sacrificing the sample-efficiency guarantees of the overall learning algorithms. To do so, we define sufficient criteria for a sample-based planner to be used in such a learning system and analyze two popular sample-based approaches from the literature. We also introduce our own sample-based planner, which combines the strategies from these algorithms and still meets the criteria for integration into our learning system. In doing so, we define the first complete RL solution for compactly represented (exponentially sized) state spaces with efficiently learnable dynamics that is both sample efficient and whose computation time does not grow rapidly with the number of states.

This paper presents the Topic-Aspect Model (TAM), a Bayesian mixture model which jointly discovers topics and aspects. We broadly define an aspect of a document as a characteristic that spans the document, such as an underlying theme or perspective. Unlike previous models which cluster words by topic or aspect, our model can generate token assignments in both of these dimensions, rather than assuming words come from only one of two orthogonal models. We present two applications of the model. First, we model a corpus of computational linguistics abstracts, and find that the scientific topics identified in the data tend to include both a computational aspect and a linguistic aspect. For example, the computational aspect of GRAMMAR emphasizes parsing, whereas the linguistic aspect focuses on formal languages. Secondly, we show that the model can capture different viewpoints on a variety of topics in a corpus of editorials about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. We show both qualitative and quantitative improvements in TAM over two other state-of-the-art topic models.

In Service-Oriented Computing (SOC) environments, the trustworthiness of each service is critical for a service client when selecting one from a large pool of services. The trust value of a service is usually in the range of [0,1] and is evaluated from the ratings given by service clients, which represent the subjective belief of these service clients on the satisfaction of delivered services. So a trust value can be taken as the subjective probability, with which one party believes that another party can perform an action in a certain situation. Hence, subjective probability theory should be adopted in trust evaluation. In addition, in SOC environments, a service usually invokes other services offered by different service providers forming a composite service. Thus, the global trust of a composite service should be evaluated based on complex invocation structures. In this paper, firstly, based on Bayesian inference, we propose a novel method to evaluate the subjective trustworthiness of a service component from a series of ratings given by service clients. Secondly, we interpret the trust dependency caused by service invocations as conditional probability, which is evaluated based on the subjective trust values of service components. Furthermore, we propose a joint subjective probability method to evaluate the subjective global trust of a composite service on the basis of trust dependency. Finally, we introduce the results of our conducted experiments to illustrate the properties of our proposed subjective global trust inference method.

Methods for discovering causal knowledge from observational data have been a persistent topic of AI research for several decades. Essentially all of this work focuses on knowledge representations for propositional domains. In this paper, we present several key algorithmic and theoretical innovations that extend causal discovery to relational domains. We provide strong evidence that effective learning of causal models is enhanced by relational representations. We present an algorithm, relational PC, that learns causal dependencies in a state-of-the-art relational representation, and we identify the key representational and algorithmic innovations that make the algorithm possible. Finally, we prove the algorithm's theoretical correctness and demonstrate its effectiveness on synthetic and real data sets.

Bayesian inference is an appealing approach for leveraging prior knowledge in reinforcement learning (RL). In this paper we describe an algorithm for discovering different classes of roles for agents via Bayesian inference. In particular, we develop a Bayesian policy search approach for Multi-Agent RL (MARL), which is model-free and allows for priors on policy parameters. We present a novel optimization algorithm based on hybrid MCMC, which leverages both the prior and gradient information estimated from trajectories. Our experiments in a complex real-time strategy game demonstrate the effective discovery of roles from supervised trajectories, the use of discovered roles for successful transfer to similar tasks, and the discovery of roles through reinforcement learning.