We study models for human-AI teaming through the lens of statistical calibration. We assume the team consists of an AI model and human -- both of which are calibrated with respect to some partitioning of the feature space -- and expose how the calibration assumptions propagate into the teaming framework. In particular, we consider frameworks that either (i) combine human and model predictions or (ii) delegate prediction responsibility to either a human or model. We show via theoretical and empirical results that existing methods for combination do not preserve the human's degree of calibration. Methods for delegation (by the very act of delegation) preserve calibration of the downstream predictors but shift the burden onto the rejector meta-model that decides who predicts. The rejector must be calibrated finely enough to locate where each member is superior, a demand that grows with the human's expertise and becomes unattainable when the human relies on information the system cannot observe.

Convergence-rate analysis for classifiers is often conducted under either Tsybakov margin or Massart margin. The former is a relatively weak condition that typically yields polynomial rates, while the latter is substantially stronger but can guarantee exponential rates. In this paper, we introduce a new condition, called Boltzmann margin, that bridges the gap between these two regimes. It is weaker than Massart margin, generally stronger than Tsybakov margin, and can imply many of their properties under suitable conditions. We apply Boltzmann Figure 1: Example data densities on [0,1] that satisfy different margins respectively. Bayes decision boundary is 0.5.margin to the analysis of kNN classifiers and establish the first near-exponential convergence rates for kNN classification. We also present extensions of the main results and provide numerical evidencenecessarily strong for many problems. Can there be a more supporting the main theoretical implications.

The analogy between deep neural network forward passes and renormalization group (RG) flows has been repeatedly noted in the literature, but existing treatments remain qualitative: depth is described as a coarse-graining scale, attention is likened to a partition function, and representations are said to flow toward fixed points. No existing work has defined a measurable RG order parameter, tested it under controlled variation of the input distribution, or made quantitative predictions that are empirically verified. We study the simplest architecture for which the analogy is tractable: a pure MLP residual stack trained on masked token prediction over synthetic Markov chain sequences with known spectral properties. We report three findings. (i) The effective rank of the residual stream decreases monotonically with depth after training, consistent with progressive integration of irrelevant degrees of freedom. (ii) This rank collapse is selective: it occurs for chains with short correlation length approximately 1 but is absent for chains with long correlation length approximately 7, measured at the position level to control for mean-pooling artifacts. The network preserves exactly the degrees of freedom relevant to the prediction task, the content of the RG relevance criterion. (iii) Inter-layer kernel drift is concentrated at one or two specific transitions, with the remainder of the network near a fixed point, consistent with a discrete fixed-point plateau. Together these findings constitute the first quantitative, position-level evidence that MLP residual networks implement a selective coarse-graining procedure governed by the spectral structure of the input distribution.

Compositional priors describe the generic properties of layered functions in deep Bayesian models, where deep neural networks with random weights are a canonical example.In the wide-network limit, the prior is a Gaussian process with a depth-dependent kernel, and its behaviour as depth grows has been extensively studied through this kernel. Here, we study another case, where each layer itself is a vector valued Gaussian process, and our aim is similarly to understand the limiting behaviour of the prior as depth grows. Previous GP work has established that for the RBF kernel and a certain range of bandwidths $r$, the prior degenerates in the limit, converging to the set of constant functions -- which is not useful as a probabilistic model. In this paper we establish several new results. First, we identify a sharp bandwidth threshold $r_c(d) = Θ(\sqrt{d})$ above which the limit is degenerate, strengthening the earlier bounds. Second, and more importantly, we show that for $r$ below the threshold $r_c(d)$ the prior converges to a limit distribution $π_{\bar{Z}}$. We also prove that these distributions are non-degenerate and non-Gaussian, with non-vanishing dependence between coordinates. In contrast to the previously known degenerate regime, deep Gaussian process priors can therefore admit non-trivial limits. Empirically, we verify the threshold across a range of dimensions $d$, and demonstrate a complex multimodal behaviour of the limit distributions $π_{\bar{Z}}$ -- a regime that becomes increasingly narrow with $d$ and would be hard to identify without knowing the threshold.

Undirected graphical models provide a fundamental framework for representing conditional independence structures among high-dimensional random variables. While undirected graphical model selection has become a central problem in high-dimensional statistics, most existing methods are restricted to parametric settings. In this paper, we develop a nonparametric approach to undirected graphical model selection based on diffusion models. Recent work has shown that diffusion models can adapt to the unknown graph structure of the underlying distribution, yet utilizing these models for explicit graph estimation remains unexplored. To bridge this gap, we introduce a novel diffusion-based method for nonparametric undirected graphical model selection. We establish the model selection consistency of the proposed method and demonstrate its empirical performance through extensive simulations and two real data analyses.

This paper proposes a collapsible method for estimating causal effects that maintains the estimator's consistency before and after marginalization over some variables in completed partially directed acyclic graphs (CPDAGs). We first introduce the estimate collapsibility for CPDAGs and characterize the minimal collapsible sets as strong d-convex hulls. An efficient algorithm is devised to obtain such sets in DAGs and is generalized to CPDAGs. Then, we combine the graph reduction procedure with the IDA framework.

Singular learning theory and information geometry have studied the same parameter spaces in mostly separate vocabularies: the former computes Bayesian invariants in resolved coordinates, the latter works in original coordinates under a non-degeneracy assumption that overparameterised models routinely violate. We bridge them through one primitive, the dead direction: a unit vector along which the Fisher metric degenerates, equivalently a tangent to the analytic singular set with a definite KL order, set by how fast the KL divergence vanishes. The two readings name the same vector; our central move shows its KL order is recoverable as the decay rate of the directional Fisher curvature approaching the singularity, in original parameter coordinates and without a Hironaka resolution. A selection rule on smooth fibres translates this rate into Watanabe's single-direction contribution to the real log canonical threshold, and we extend the recovery to multi-component crossings, multiplicity $m$, the singular fluctuation $ν$ (universal in the KL order for 1D directions), prior-RLCT shifts, and tempered posteriors. We then lift this rate to a deep network: a multi-layer K-FAC factorisation writes each Fisher block as a product of activation- and gradient-side rates with a duality between them, instantiated at modern-network primitives (residual streams, layer normalisation, attention). A quotient theorem carries the rate to the gauge quotient $Θ/G$ under gradient flow on a $G$-invariant metric; SGD qualifies, standard Adam does not, and we construct a $G$-equivariant Adam-family preconditioner (DDCAdam) that does. The bridge yields a parameter-coordinate handle on singular geometry, closed-form per-architecture predictions, and a trajectory-rate readout of Watanabe's triple $(λ, m, ν)$ from one checkpoint's forward and backward passes, without posterior sampling.

We consider multi-environment prediction problems. We assume the environments change the distribution of a latent variable, while the mechanisms generating observed covariates and targets remain stable conditional on that variable. For example, hospitals or clinical cohorts may differ in the prevalence of latent patient states, even though the relationships between those states, physiological measurements, and outcomes remain unchanged. Given a dataset from multiple environments, we formulate a Bayesian model for such problems and derive the corresponding variational objective. We show that this objective decomposes into per-environment terms and an additional cross-environment balancing term induced by the model's structure. We use an empirical Bayes method to set the prior and incorporate it into the objective. Based on this objective, we develop an amortized variational algorithm for posterior approximation, and use the resulting learned latent variables to form predictions in new environments. We study our approach through simulations and real-world studies of astronomical source identification, microbiome-based disease detection, and ICU sepsis prediction. Across these settings, our method outperforms previous approaches for prediction in new environments.

Whilst the vulnerability of graph neural networks (GNNs) to adversarial attacks poses a critical threat to graph representation learning, the understanding of the robust generalization behavior remains a fundamental challenge in the adversarial setting. Recently, PAC-Bayesian margin-based generalization analysis substantially advances this line of research by providing a flexible and data-dependent analytical framework. However, existing robust analyses often rely on isotropic Gaussian posteriors and control weight perturbations in the full parameter space, which limits the ability to capture heterogeneous parameter sensitivity yet hinges on hidden-width-dependent complexity terms, resulting in not-tight-enough generalization bounds. In this paper, we extend a recently proposed sensitivity-aware PAC-Bayesian framework from deep neural networks to message passing GNNs (MPGNNs) and derive a tighter robust generalization bound in the adversarial setting. Specifically, we first quantify how sensitive the perturbations across different parameter blocks are to the network outputs by deriving the output Jacobians with respect to the weight parameters. Exploiting the fact that these Jacobian matrices have rank at most $K$ in $K$-class graph classification, we then construct Jacobian-aligned sensitivity matrices and use anisotropic Gaussian posteriors with optimized covariances to upper bound the KL divergence in a tight way. Notably, by refining the spectral-norm dependence on the learned weights and reducing the leading dimension factor from hidden-width-dependent terms to the number of classes $K$, our analysis yields much tighter robust generalization guarantees for MPGNNs, thereby guiding their designs to enhance adversarial robustness.

Data-driven causal relationship identification is pertinent to advancing understanding of complex systems both within and beyond science. Bayesian networks offer a probabilistic method for modelling generic causal relationships via directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). However, typical techniques for constructing Bayesian networks rely on optimization, which can be ill-suited for learning causal relationships because the underlying data may admit multiple chains of causation. More data-faithful representations of causal relationships would provide frameworks for constructing multiple causal maps that are consistent with the variability that is inherent in underlying data. Here, we show that entropy-based inference generates atlases of plausible causal relationships that are consistent with underlying data. On simulated noisy data of 2- and 20-node linear structural equation models, we sample a maximum-entropy ensemble of graphs that allow us to quantify the inherent structural ambiguity in underlying causal relationships. Our method shows that "optimized" DAGs can contain causal artifacts are not consistent across equivalently accurate topologies.