Experts (human or computer) are often required to assess the probability of uncertain events. When a collection of experts independently assess events that are structurally interrelated, the resulting assessment may violate fundamental laws of probability. Such an assessment is termed incoherent. In this work we investigate how the problem of incoherence may be affected by allowing experts to specify likelihood models and then update their assessments based on the realization of a globally-observable random sequence.

Score Matching is a recently-proposed criterion for training high-dimensional density models for which maximum likelihood training is intractable. It has been applied to learning natural image statistics but has so-far been limited to simple models due to the difficulty of differentiating the loss with respect to the model parameters. We show how this differentiation can be automated with an extended version of the double-backpropagation algorithm. In addition, we introduce a regularization term for the Score Matching loss that enables its use for a broader range of problem by suppressing instabilities that occur with finite training sample sizes and quantized input values. Results are reported for image denoising and super-resolution.

This paper explores links between basis construction methods in Markov decision processes and power series expansions of value functions. This perspective provides a useful framework to analyze properties of existing bases, as well as provides insight into constructing more effective bases. Krylov and Bellman error bases are based on the Neumann series expansion. These bases incur very large initial Bellman errors, and can converge rather slowly as the discount factor approaches unity. The Laurent series expansion, which relates discounted and average-reward formulations, provides both an explanation for this slow convergence as well as suggests a way to construct more efficient basis representations. The first two terms in the Laurent series represent the scaled average-reward and the average-adjusted sum of rewards, and subsequent terms expand the discounted value function using powers of a generalized inverse called the Drazin (or group inverse) of a singular matrix derived from the transition matrix. Experiments show that Drazin bases converge considerably more quickly than several other bases, particularly for large values of the discount factor. An incremental variant of Drazin bases called Bellman average-reward bases (BARBs) is described, which provides some of the same benefits at lower computational cost.

We present a generative probabilistic model for learning general graph structures, which we term concept graphs, from text. Concept graphs provide a visual summary of the thematic content of a collection of documents-a task that is difficult to accomplish using only keyword search. The proposed model can learn different types of concept graph structures and is capable of utilizing partial prior knowledge about graph structure as well as labeled documents. We describe a generative model that is based on a stick-breaking process for graphs, and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference procedure. Experiments on simulated data show that the model can recover known graph structure when learning in both unsupervised and semi-supervised modes. We also show that the proposed model is competitive in terms of empirical log likelihood with existing structure-based topic models (such as hPAM and hLDA) on real-world text data sets. Finally, we illustrate the application of the model to the problem of updating Wikipedia category graphs.

We study several classes of interactive assistants from the points of view of decision theory and computational complexity. We first introduce a class of POMDPs called hidden-goal MDPs (HGMDPs), which formalize the problem of interactively assisting an agent whose goal is hidden and whose actions are observable. In spite of its restricted nature, we show that optimal action selection in finite horizon HGMDPs is PSPACE-complete even in domains with deterministic dynamics. We then introduce a more restricted model called helper action MDPs (HAMDPs), where the assistant's action is accepted by the agent when it is helpful, and can be easily ignored by the agent otherwise. We show classes of HAMDPs that are complete for PSPACE and NP along with a polynomial time class. Furthermore, we show that for general HAMDPs a simple myopic policy achieves a regret, compared to an omniscient assistant, that is bounded by the entropy of the initial goal distribution. A variation of this policy is shown to achieve worst-case regret that is logarithmic in the number of goals for any goal distribution.

This paper describes a probabilistic framework for studying associations between multiple genotypes, biomarkers, and phenotypic traits in the presence of noise and unobserved confounders for large genetic studies. The framework builds on sparse linear methods developed for regression and modified here for inferring causal structures of richer networks with latent variables. The method is motivated by the use of genotypes as ``instruments'' to infer causal associations between phenotypic biomarkers and outcomes, without making the common restrictive assumptions of instrumental variable methods. The method may be used for an effective screening of potentially interesting genotype phenotype and biomarker-phenotype associations in genome-wide studies, which may have important implications for validating biomarkers as possible proxy endpoints for early stage clinical trials. Where the biomarkers are gene transcripts, the method can be used for fine mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) detected in genetic linkage studies. The method is applied for examining effects of gene transcript levels in the liver on plasma HDL cholesterol levels for a sample of sequenced mice from a heterogeneous stock, with $\sim 10^5$ genetic instruments and $\sim 47 \times 10^3$ gene transcripts.

This paper presents Bayesian non-parametric models that simultaneously learn to segment words from phoneme strings and learn the referents of some of those words, and shows that there is a synergistic interaction in the acquisition of these two kinds of linguistic information. The models themselves are novel kinds of Adaptor Grammars that are an extension of an embedding of topic models into PCFGs. These models simultaneously segment phoneme sequences into words and learn the relationship between non-linguistic objects to the words that refer to them. We show (i) that modelling inter-word dependencies not only improves the accuracy of the word segmentation but also of word-object relationships, and (ii) that a model that simultaneously learns word-object relationships and word segmentation segments more accurately than one that just learns word segmentation on its own. We argue that these results support an interactive view of language acquisition that can take advantage of synergies such as these.

We consider the tree structured group Lasso where the structure over the features can be represented as a tree with leaf nodes as features and internal nodes as clusters of the features. The structured regularization with a pre-defined tree structure is based on a group-Lasso penalty, where one group is defined for each node in the tree. Such a regularization can help uncover the structured sparsity, which is desirable for applications with some meaningful tree structures on the features. However, the tree structured group Lasso is challenging to solve due to the complex regularization. In this paper, we develop an efficient algorithm for the tree structured group Lasso. One of the key steps in the proposed algorithm is to solve the Moreau-Yosida regularization associated with the grouped tree structure. The main technical contributions of this paper include (1) we show that the associated Moreau-Yosida regularization admits an analytical solution, and (2) we develop an efficient algorithm for determining the effective interval for the regularization parameter. Our experimental results on the AR and JAFFE face data sets demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

We develop an online variational Bayes (VB) algorithm for Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). Online LDA is based on online stochastic optimization with a natural gradient step, which we show converges to a local optimum of the VB objective function. It can handily analyze massive document collections, including those arriving in a stream. We study the performance of online LDA in several ways, including by fitting a 100-topic topic model to 3.3M articles from Wikipedia in a single pass. We demonstrate that online LDA finds topic models as good or better than those found with batch VB, and in a fraction of the time.

We consider problems for which one has incomplete binary matrices that evolve with time (e.g., the votes of legislators on particular legislation, with each year characterized by a different such matrix). An objective of such analysis is to infer structure and inter-relationships underlying the matrices, here defined by latent features associated with each axis of the matrix. In addition, it is assumed that documents are available for the entities associated with at least one of the matrix axes. By jointly analyzing the matrices and documents, one may be used to inform the other within the analysis, and the model offers the opportunity to predict matrix values (e.g., votes) based only on an associated document (e.g., legislation). The research presented here merges two areas of machine-learning that have previously been investigated separately: incomplete-matrix analysis and topic modeling. The analysis is performed from a Bayesian perspective, with efficient inference constituted via Gibbs sampling. The framework is demonstrated by considering all voting data and available documents (legislation) during the 220-year lifetime of the United States Senate and House of Representatives.