Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) model sequential decision-making problems under uncertainty and partial observability. Unfortunately, some problems cannot be modeled with state-dependent reward functions, e.g., problems whose objective explicitly implies reducing the uncertainty on the state. To that end, we introduce rho-POMDPs, an extension of POMDPs where the reward function rho depends on the belief state. We show that, under the common assumption that rho is convex, the value function is also convex, what makes it possible to (1) approximate rho arbitrarily well with a piecewise linear and convex (PWLC) function, and (2) use state-of-the-art exact or approximate solving algorithms with limited changes.

Bayesian approaches to utility elicitation typically adopt (myopic) expected value of information (EVOI)as a natural criterion for selecting queries. However, EVOI-optimization is usually computationally prohibitive. In this paper, we examine EVOI optimization using choice queries, queries in which a user is ask to select her most preferred product from a set. We show that, under very general assumptions, the optimal choice query w.r.t. EVOI coincides with the optimal recommendation set, that is, a set maximizing the expected utility ofthe user selection. Since recommendation set optimization is a simpler, submodular problem, this can greatly reduce the complexity of both exact and approximate (greedy) computation of optimal choice queries. We also examine the case where user responses to choice queries are error-prone (using both constant and mixed multinomial logit noise models) and provide worst-case guarantees. Finally we present a local search technique for query optimization that works extremely well with large outcome spaces.

We tackle the fundamental problem of Bayesian active learning with noise, where we need to adaptively select from a number of expensive tests in order to identify an unknown hypothesis sampled from a known prior distribution. In the case of noise-free observations, a greedy algorithm called generalized binary search (GBS) is known to perform near-optimally. We show that if the observations are noisy, perhaps surprisingly, GBS can perform very poorly. We develop EC2, a novel, greedy active learning algorithm and prove that it is competitive with the optimal policy, thus obtaining the first competitiveness guarantees for Bayesian active learning with noisy observations. Our bounds rely on a recently discovered diminishing returns property called adaptive submodularity, generalizing the classical notion of submodular set functions to adaptive policies. Our results hold even if the tests have non–uniform cost and their noise is correlated. We also propose EffECXtive, a particularly fast approximation of EC2, and evaluate it on a Bayesian experimental design problem involving human subjects, intended to tease apart competing economic theories of how people make decisions under uncertainty.

Recently, some variants of the $l_1$ norm, particularly matrix norms such as the $l_{1,2}$ and $l_{1,\infty}$ norms, have been widely used in multi-task learning, compressed sensing and other related areas to enforce sparsity via joint regularization. In this paper, we unify the $l_{1,2}$ and $l_{1,\infty}$ norms by considering a family of $l_{1,q}$ norms for $1 < q\le\infty$ and study the problem of determining the most appropriate sparsity enforcing norm to use in the context of multi-task feature selection. Using the generalized normal distribution, we provide a probabilistic interpretation of the general multi-task feature selection problem using the $l_{1,q}$ norm. Based on this probabilistic interpretation, we develop a probabilistic model using the noninformative Jeffreys prior. We also extend the model to learn and exploit more general types of pairwise relationships between tasks. For both versions of the model, we devise expectation-maximization~(EM) algorithms to learn all model parameters, including $q$, automatically. Experiments have been conducted on two cancer classification applications using microarray gene expression data.

We present an algorithm for learning high-treewidth Markov networks where inference is still tractable. This is made possible by exploiting context specific independence and determinism in the domain. The class of models our algorithm can learn has the same desirable properties as thin junction trees: polynomial inference, closed form weight learning, etc., but is much broader. Our algorithm searches for a feature that divides the state space into subspaces where the remaining variables decompose into independent subsets (conditioned on the feature or its negation) and recurses on each subspace/subset of variables until no useful new features can be found. We provide probabilistic performance guarantees for our algorithm under the assumption that the maximum feature length is k (the treewidth can be much larger) and dependences are of bounded strength. We also propose a greedy version of the algorithm that, while forgoing these guarantees, is much more efficient.Experiments on a variety of domains show that our approach compares favorably with thin junction trees and other Markov network structure learners.

There has been a recent push in extraction of 3D spatial layout of scenes. However, none of these approaches model the 3D interaction between objects and the spatial layout. In this paper, we argue for a parametric representation of objects in 3D, which allows us to incorporate volumetric constraints of the physical world. We show that augmenting current structured prediction techniques with volumetric reasoning significantly improves the performance of the state-of-the-art.

We present a new way of converting a reversible finite Markov chain into a nonreversible one, with a theoretical guarantee that the asymptotic variance of the MCMC estimator based on the non-reversible chain is reduced. The method is applicable to any reversible chain whose states are not connected through a tree, and can be interpreted graphically as inserting vortices into the state transition graph. Our result confirms that non-reversible chains are fundamentally better than reversible ones in terms of asymptotic performance, and suggests interesting directions for further improving MCMC.

The International Monitoring System (IMS) is a global network of sensors whose purpose is to identify potential violations of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), primarily through detection and localization of seismic events. We report on the first stage of a project to improve on the current automated software system with a Bayesian inference system that computes the most likely global event history given the record of local sensor data. The new system, VISA (Vertically Integrated Seismological Analysis), is based on empirically calibrated, generative models of event occurrence, signal propagation, and signal detection. VISA exhibits significantly improved precision and recall compared to the current operational system and is able to detect events that are missed even by the human analysts who post-process the IMS output.

In many real-world scenarios, it is nearly impossible to collect explicit social network data. In such cases, whole networks must be inferred from underlying observations. Here, we formulate the problem of inferring latent social networks based on network diffusion or disease propagation data. We consider contagions propagating over the edges of an unobserved social network, where we only observe the times when nodes became infected, but not who infected them. Given such node infection times, we then identify the optimal network that best explains the observed data. We present a maximum likelihood approach based on convex programming with a l1-like penalty term that encourages sparsity. Experiments on real and synthetic data reveal that our method near-perfectly recovers the underlying network structure as well as the parameters of the contagion propagation model. Moreover, our approach scales well as it can infer optimal networks on thousands of nodes in a matter of minutes.

Probabilistic models of natural images are usually evaluated by measuring performance on rather indirect tasks, such as denoising and inpainting. A more direct way to evaluate a generative model is to draw samples from it and to check whether statistical properties of the samples match the statistics of natural images. This method is seldom used with high-resolution images, because current models produce samples that are very different from natural images, as assessed by even simple visual inspection. We investigate the reasons for this failure and we show that by augmenting existing models so that there are two sets of latent variables, one set modelling pixel intensities and the other set modelling image-specific pixel covariances, we are able to generate high-resolution images that look much more realistic than before. The overall model can be interpreted as a gated MRF where both pair-wise dependencies and mean intensities of pixels are modulated by the states of latent variables. Finally, we confirm that if we disallow weight-sharing between receptive fields that overlap each other, the gated MRF learns more efficient internal representations, as demonstrated in several recognition tasks.