Many problems require repeated inference on probabilistic graphical models, with different values for evidence variables or other changes. Examples of such problems include utility maximization, MAP inference, online and interactive inference, parameter and structure learning, and dynamic inference. Since small changes to the evidence typically only affect a small region of the network, repeatedly performing inference from scratch can be massively redundant. In this paper, we propose expanding frontier belief propagation (EFBP), an efficient approximate algorithm for probabilistic inference with incremental changes to the evidence (or model). EFBP is an extension of loopy belief propagation (BP) where each run of inference reuses results from the previous ones, instead of starting from scratch with the new evidence; messages are only propagated in regions of the network affected by the changes. We provide theoretical guarantees bounding the difference in beliefs generated by EFBP and standard BP, and apply EFBP to the problem of expected utility maximization in influence diagrams. Experiments on viral marketing and combinatorial auction problems show that EFBP can converge much faster than BP without significantly affecting the quality of the solutions.

Lifting can greatly reduce the cost of inference on first-order probabilistic graphical models, but constructing the lifted network can itself be quite costly. In online applications (e.g., video segmentation) repeatedly constructing the lifted network for each new inference can be extremely wasteful, because the evidence typically changes little from one inference to the next. The same is true in many other problems that require repeated inference, like utility maximization, MAP inference, interactive inference, parameter and structure learning, etc. In this paper, we propose an efficient algorithm for updating the structure of an existing lifted network with incremental changes to the evidence. This allows us to construct the lifted network once for the initial inference problem, and amortize the cost over the subsequent problems. Experiments on video segmentation and viral marketing problems show that the algorithm greatly reduces the cost of inference without affecting the quality of the solutions.

We examine the suitability of using decision processes to model real-world systems of intelligent adversaries. Decision processes have long been used to study cooperative multiagent interactions, but their practical applicability to adversarial problems has received minimal study. We address the pros and cons of applying sequential decision-making in this area, using the crime of money laundering as a specific example. Motivated by case studies, we abstract out a model of the money laundering process, using the framework of interactive partially observable Markov decision processes (I-POMDPs). We address why this framework is well suited for modeling adversarial interactions. Particle filtering and value iteration are used to solve the model, with the application of different pruning and look-ahead strategies to assess the tradeoffs between solution quality and algorithmic run time. Our results show that there is a large gap in the level of realism that can currently be achieved by such decision models, largely due to computational demands that limit the size of problems that can be solved. While these results represent solutions to a simplified model of money laundering, they illustrate nonetheless the kinds of agent interactions that cannot be captured by standard approaches such as anomaly detection. This implies that I-POMDP methods may be valuable in the future, when algorithmic capabilities have further evolved.

Automatically constructing novel representations of tasks from analysis of state spaces is a longstanding fundamental challenge in AI. I review recent progress on this problem for sequential decision making tasks modeled as Markov decision processes. Specifically, I discuss three classes of representation discovery problems: finding functional, state, and temporal abstractions. I describe solution techniques varying along several dimensions: diagonalization or dilation methods using approximate or exact transition models; reward-specific vs reward-invariant methods; global vs. local representation construction methods; multiscale vs. flat discovery methods; and finally, orthogonal vs. redundant representa- tion discovery methods. I conclude by describing a number of open problems for future work.

We present a method for unsupervised learning of event classes from videos in which multiple actions might occur simultaneously. It is assumed that all such activities are produced from an underlying set of event class generators. The learning task is then to recover this generative process from visual data. A set of event classes is derived from the most likely decomposition of the tracks into a set of labelled events involving subsets of interacting tracks. Interactions between subsets of tracks are modelled as a relational graph structure that captures qualitative spatio-temporal relationships between these tracks. The posterior probability of candidate solutions favours decompositions in which events of the same class have a similar relational structure, together with other measures of well-formedness. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure is used to efficiently search for the MAP solution. This search moves between possible decompositions of the tracks into sets of unlabelled events and at each move adds a close to optimal labelling (for this decomposition) using spectral clustering. Experiments on real data show that the discovered event classes are often semantically meaningful and correspond well with groundtruth event classes assigned by hand.

Trial-based approaches offer an efficient way to solve single-agent MDPs and POMDPs. These approaches allow agents to focus their computations on regions of the environment they encounter during the trials, leading to significant computational savings. We present a novel trial-based dynamic programming (TBDP) algorithm for DEC-POMDPs that extends these benefits to multi-agent settings. The algorithm uses trial-based methods for both belief generation and policy evaluation. Policy improvement is implemented efficiently using linear programming and a sub-policy reuse technique that helps bound the amount of memory. The results show that TBDP can produce significant value improvements and is much faster than the best existing planning algorithms.

We consider the task of assigning experts from a portfolio of specialists in order to solve a set of tasks. We apply a Bayesian model which combines collaborative filtering with a feature-based description of tasks and experts to yield a general framework for managing a portfolio of experts. The model learns an embedding of tasks and problems into a latent space in which affinity is measured by the inner product. The model can be trained incrementally and can track non-stationary data, tracking potentially changing expert and task characteristics. The approach allows us to use a principled decision theoretic framework for expert selection, allowing the user to choose a utility function that best suits their objectives. The model component for taking into account the performance feedback data is pluggable, allowing flexibility. We apply the model to manage a portfolio of algorithms to solve hard combinatorial problems. This is a well studied area and we demonstrate a large improvement on the state of the art in one domain (constraint solving) and in a second domain (combinatorial auctions) created a portfolio that performed significantly better than any single algorithm.

There have been many efforts to identify causal graphical features such as directed edges between random variables from observational data. Recently, Tian et al. proposed a new dynamic programming algorithm which computes marginalized posterior probabilities of directed edge features over all the possible structures in O( n 3 n ) time when the number of parents per node is bounded by a constant, where n is the number of variables of interest. However the main drawback of this approach is that deciding a single appropriate threshold for the existence of the directed edge feature is difficult due to the scale difference of the posterior probabilities between the directed edges forming v- structures and the directed edges not forming v -structures. We claim that computing posterior probabilities of both adjacencies and v -structures is necessary and more effective for discovering causal graphical features, since it allows us to find a single appropriate decision threshold for the existence of the feature that we are testing. For efficient computation, we provide a novel dynamic programming algorithm which computes the posterior probabilities of all of n ( n – 1)/2 adjacency and n ( n –1 choose 2) v -structure features in O( n 3 * 3 n ) time.

Wikis are being increasingly used as a tool for conducting colla-borative writing assignments in today’s classrooms. However, Wikis in general (1) do not provide group formation methods to more specifically facilitate collaborative learning of the students and (2) suffer from typical problems of collaborative learning like detection of free-riding (earning credit without contribution). To improve the state of the art of the use of Wikis as a collaborative writing tool, we have designed and implemented ClassroomWiki - a Web-based collaborative Wiki that utilizes a set of learner pedagogy theories to provide multiagent-based tracking, modeling, and group formation functionalities. For the students, ClassroomWiki provides a Web interface for writing and revising their group’s Wiki and a topic-based forum for discussing their ideas during collaboration. When the students collaborate, ClassroomWiki’s agents track all student activities to learn a model of the students and use a Bayesian Network to learn a probabilistic mapping that describes the ability of a group of students with a specific set of models to work together. For the teacher, Clas-sroomWiki provides a framework that uses the learned student models and the mapping to form student groups to improve the collaborative learning of students. ClassroomWiki was deployed in three university-level courses and the results suggest that ClassroomWiki can (1) form better student groups that improve stu-dent learning and collaboration and (2) alleviate free-riding and allow the instructor to provide scaffolding by its multiagent-based tracking and modeling.

Software defect prediction aims to reduce software testing efforts by guiding testers through the defect-prone sections of software systems. Defect predictors are widely used in organizations to predict defects in order to save time and effort as an alternative to other techniques such as manual code reviews. The application of a defect prediction model in a real-life setting is difficult because it requires software metrics and defect data from past projects to predict the defect-proneness of new projects. It is, on the other hand, very practical because it is easy to apply, can detect defects using less time and reduces the testing effort. We have built a learning-based defect prediction model for a telecommunication company during a period of one year. In this study, we have briefly explained our model, presented its pay-off and described how we have implemented the model in the company. Furthermore, we have compared the performance of our model with that of another testing strategy applied in a pilot project that implemented a new process called Team Software Process (TSP). Our results show that defect predictors can be used as supportive tools during a new process implementation, predict 75% of code defects, and decrease the testing time compared with 25% of the code defects detected through more labor-intensive strategies such as code reviews and formal checklists.