Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are a popular framework to express multivariate probability distributions. Acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs) are generalizations of DAGs that can succinctly capture much richer sets of conditional independencies, and are especially useful in modeling the effects of latent variables implicitly. Unfortunately there are currently no good parameterizations of general ADMGs. In this paper, we apply recent work on cumulative distribution networks and copulas to propose one one general construction for ADMG models. We consider a simple parameter estimation approach, and report some encouraging experimental results.

It is well known that text compression can be achieved by predicting the next symbol in the stream of text data based on the history seen up to the current symbol. The better the prediction the more skewed the conditional probability distribution of the next symbol and the shorter the codeword that needs to be assigned to represent this next symbol. What about the opposite direction ? suppose we have a black box that can compress text stream. Can it be used to predict the next symbol in the stream ? We introduce a criterion based on the length of the compressed data and use it to predict the next symbol. We examine empirically the prediction error rate and its dependency on some compression parameters.

Since learning is typically very slow in Boltzmann machines, there is a need to restrict connections within hidden layers. However, the resulting states of hidden units exhibit statistical dependencies. Based on this observation, we propose using $l_1/l_2$ regularization upon the activation possibilities of hidden units in restricted Boltzmann machines to capture the loacal dependencies among hidden units. This regularization not only encourages hidden units of many groups to be inactive given observed data but also makes hidden units within a group compete with each other for modeling observed data. Thus, the $l_1/l_2$ regularization on RBMs yields sparsity at both the group and the hidden unit levels. We call RBMs trained with the regularizer \emph{sparse group} RBMs. The proposed sparse group RBMs are applied to three tasks: modeling patches of natural images, modeling handwritten digits and pretaining a deep networks for a classification task. Furthermore, we illustrate the regularizer can also be applied to deep Boltzmann machines, which lead to sparse group deep Boltzmann machines. When adapted to the MNIST data set, a two-layer sparse group Boltzmann machine achieves an error rate of $0.84\%$, which is, to our knowledge, the best published result on the permutation-invariant version of the MNIST task.

The scientific method relies on the iterated processes of inference and inquiry. The inference phase consists of selecting the most probable models based on the available data; whereas the inquiry phase consists of using what is known about the models to select the most relevant experiment. Optimizing inquiry involves searching the parameterized space of experiments to select the experiment that promises, on average, to be maximally informative. In the case where it is important to learn about each of the model parameters, the relevance of an experiment is quantified by Shannon entropy of the distribution of experimental outcomes predicted by a probable set of models. If the set of potential experiments is described by many parameters, we must search this high-dimensional entropy space. Brute force search methods will be slow and computationally expensive. We present an entropy-based search algorithm, called nested entropy sampling, to select the most informative experiment for efficient experimental design. This algorithm is inspired by Skilling's nested sampling algorithm used in inference and borrows the concept of a rising threshold while a set of experiment samples are maintained. We demonstrate that this algorithm not only selects highly relevant experiments, but also is more efficient than brute force search. Such entropic search techniques promise to greatly benefit autonomous experimental design.

The Aviation Safety Reporting System collects voluntarily submitted reports on aviation safety incidents to facilitate research work aiming to reduce such incidents. To effectively reduce these incidents, it is vital to accurately identify why these incidents occurred. More precisely, given a set of possible causes, or shaping factors, this task of cause identification involves identifying all and only those shaping factors that are responsible for the incidents described in a report. We investigate two approaches to cause identification. Both approaches exploit information provided by a semantic lexicon, which is automatically constructed via Thelen and Riloff's Basilisk framework augmented with our linguistic and algorithmic modifications. The first approach labels a report using a simple heuristic, which looks for the words and phrases acquired during the semantic lexicon learning process in the report. The second approach recasts cause identification as a text classification problem, employing supervised and transductive text classification algorithms to learn models from incident reports labeled with shaping factors and using the models to label unseen reports. Our experiments show that both the heuristic-based approach and the learning-based approach (when given sufficient training data) outperform the baseline system significantly.

Agents that solve problems in unknown graphs are usually required to iteratively explore parts of the graph. In this paper we research the problem of finding a k-clique in an unknown graph while minimizing the number of required exploration actions. Two novel heuristics Known Degree and Clique* are proposed to reduce the required exploration cost by carefully choosing which part of the environment to explore. We further investigate the problem by adding probabilistic knowledge of the graph and propose an Markov Decision Process(MDP) and a Monte Carlo based heuristic (RClique*) that uses knowledge of edge probabilities to reduce the required exploration cost. We demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approaches on simulated random and scale free graphs as well as on real online web crawls.

The successful completion of a software development process depends on the analytical capability and foresightedness of the project manager. For the project manager, the main intriguing task is to manage the risk factors as they adversely influence the completion deadline. One such key risk factor is staff training. The risk of this factor can be avoided by pre-judging the amount of training required by the staff. So, a procedure is required to help the project manager make this decision. This paper presents a system that uses influence diagrams to implement the risk model to aid decision making. The system also considers the cost of conducting the training, based on various risk factors such as, (i) Lack of experience with project software; (ii) Newly appointed staff; (iii) Staff not well versed with the required quality standards; and (iv) Lack of experience with project environment. The system provides estimated requirement details for staff training at the beginning of a software development project.

Spam is commonly known as unsolicited or unwanted email messages in the Internet causing potential threat to Internet Security. Users spend a valuable amount of time deleting spam emails. More importantly, ever increasing spam emails occupy server storage space and consume network bandwidth. Keyword-based spam email filtering strategies will eventually be less successful to model spammer behavior as the spammer constantly changes their tricks to circumvent these filters. The evasive tactics that the spammer uses are patterns and these patterns can be modeled to combat spam. This paper investigates the possibilities of modeling spammer behavioral patterns by well-known classification algorithms such as Na\"ive Bayesian classifier (Na\"ive Bayes), Decision Tree Induction (DTI) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs). Preliminary experimental results demonstrate a promising detection rate of around 92%, which is considerably an enhancement of performance compared to similar spammer behavior modeling research.

Deep belief networks are a powerful way to model complex probability distributions. However, learning the structure of a belief network, particularly one with hidden units, is difficult. The Indian buffet process has been used as a nonparametric Bayesian prior on the directed structure of a belief network with a single infinitely wide hidden layer. In this paper, we introduce the cascading Indian buffet process (CIBP), which provides a nonparametric prior on the structure of a layered, directed belief network that is unbounded in both depth and width, yet allows tractable inference. We use the CIBP prior with the nonlinear Gaussian belief network so each unit can additionally vary its behavior between discrete and continuous representations. We provide Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for inference in these belief networks and explore the structures learned on several image data sets.

Addressing the problem of spam emails in the Internet, this paper presents a comparative study on Na\"ive Bayes and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) based modeling of spammer behavior. Keyword-based spam email filtering techniques fall short to model spammer behavior as the spammer constantly changes tactics to circumvent these filters. The evasive tactics that the spammer uses are themselves patterns that can be modeled to combat spam. It has been observed that both Na\"ive Bayes and ANN are best suitable for modeling spammer common patterns. Experimental results demonstrate that both of them achieve a promising detection rate of around 92%, which is considerably an improvement of performance compared to the keyword-based contemporary filtering approaches.