Gaussian graphical models are of great interest in statistical learning. Because the conditional independencies between different nodes correspond to zero entries in the inverse covariance matrix of the Gaussian distribution, one can learn the structure of the graph by estimating a sparse inverse covariance matrix from sample data, by solving a convex maximum likelihood problem with an $\ell_1$-regularization term. In this paper, we propose a first-order method based on an alternating linearization technique that exploits the problem's special structure; in particular, the subproblems solved in each iteration have closed-form solutions. Moreover, our algorithm obtains an $\epsilon$-optimal solution in $O(1/\epsilon)$ iterations. Numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data from gene association networks show that a practical version of this algorithm outperforms other competitive algorithms.

Because reinforcement learning suffers from a lack of scalability, online value (and Q-) function approximation has received increasing interest this last decade. This contribution introduces a novel approximation scheme, namely the Kalman Temporal Differences (KTD) framework, that exhibits the following features: sample-efficiency, non-linear approximation, non-stationarity handling and uncertainty management. A first KTD-based algorithm is provided for deterministic Markov Decision Processes (MDP) which produces biased estimates in the case of stochastic transitions. Than the eXtended KTD framework (XKTD), solving stochastic MDP, is described. Convergence is analyzed for special cases for both deterministic and stochastic transitions. Related algorithms are experimented on classical benchmarks. They compare favorably to the state of the art while exhibiting the announced features.

Computer Science University of Toronto The Gaussian process (GP) is a popular way to specify dependencies between random variables in a probabilistic model. In the Bayesian framework the covariance structure can be specified using unknown hyperparameters. Integrating over these hyperparameters considers different possible explanations for the data when making predictions. This integration is often performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. However, with non-Gaussian observations standard hyperparameter sampling approaches require careful tuning and may converge slowly. In this paper we present a slice sampling approach that requires little tuning while mixing well in both strong-and weak-data regimes.

Concept drift refers to a non stationary learning problem over time. The training and the application data often mismatch in real life problems. In this report we present a context of concept drift problem 1. We focus on the issues relevant to adaptive training set formation. We present the framework and terminology, and formulate a global picture of concept drift learners design. We start with formalizing the framework for the concept drifting data in Section 1. In Section 2 we discuss the adaptivity mechanisms of the concept drift learners. In Section 3 we overview the principle mechanisms of concept drift learners. In this chapter we give a general picture of the available algorithms and categorize them based on their properties. Section 5 discusses the related research fields and Section 5 groups and presents major concept drift applications. This report is intended to give a bird's view of concept drift research field, provide a context of the research and position it within broad spectrum of research fields and applications.

Stochastic networks are a plausible representation of the relational information among entities in dynamic systems such as living cells or social communities. While there is a rich literature in estimating a static or temporally invariant network from observation data, little has been done toward estimating time-varying networks from time series of entity attributes. In this paper we present two new machine learning methods for estimating time-varying networks, which both build on a temporally smoothed $l_1$-regularized logistic regression formalism that can be cast as a standard convex-optimization problem and solved efficiently using generic solvers scalable to large networks. We report promising results on recovering simulated time-varying networks. For real data sets, we reverse engineer the latent sequence of temporally rewiring political networks between Senators from the US Senate voting records and the latent evolving regulatory networks underlying 588 genes across the life cycle of Drosophila melanogaster from the microarray time course.

We have developed an efficient algorithm for the maximum likelihood joint tracking and association problem in a strong clutter for GMTI data. By using an iterative procedure of the dynamic logic process "from vague-to-crisp," the new tracker overcomes combinatorial complexity of tracking in highly-cluttered scenarios and results in a significant improvement in signal-to-clutter ratio.

We consider the problem of learning about and comparing the consequences of dynamic treatment strategies on the basis of observational data. We formulate this within a probabilistic decision-theoretic framework. Our approach is compared with related work by Robins and others: in particular, we show how Robins's 'G-computation' algorithm arises naturally from this decision-theoretic perspective. Careful attention is paid to the mathematical and substantive conditions required to justify the use of this formula. These conditions revolve around a property we term stability, which relates the probabilistic behaviours of observational and interventional regimes. We show how an assumption of 'sequential randomization' (or 'no unmeasured confounders'), or an alternative assumption of 'sequential irrelevance', can be used to infer stability. Probabilistic influence diagrams are used to simplify manipulations, and their power and limitations are discussed. We compare our approach with alternative formulations based on causal DAGs or potential response models. We aim to show that formulating the problem of assessing dynamic treatment strategies as a problem of decision analysis brings clarity, simplicity and generality.

Despite the recent progress towards efficient multiple kernel learning (MKL), the structured output case remains an open research front. Current approaches involve repeatedly solving a batch learning problem, which makes them inadequate for large scale scenarios. We propose a new family of online proximal algorithms for MKL (as well as for group-lasso and variants thereof), which overcomes that drawback. We show regret, convergence, and generalization bounds for the proposed method. Experiments on handwriting recognition and dependency parsing testify for the successfulness of the approach.

Recent years have seen a growing interest in interactive narrative systems that dynamically adapt story experiences in response to users’ actions, preferences, and goals. However, relatively little empirical work has investigated runtime models of user knowledge for informing interactive narrative adaptations. User knowledge about plot scenarios, story environments, and interaction strategies is critical in a range of interactive narrative contexts, such as mystery and detective genre stories, as well as narrative scenarios for education and training. This paper proposes a dynamic Bayesian network approach for modeling user knowledge in interactive narrative environments. A preliminary version of the model has been implemented for the Crystal Island interactive narrative-centered learning environment. Results from an initial empirical evaluation suggest several future directions for the design and evaluation of user knowledge models for guiding interactive narrative generation and adaptation.

This paper proposes an automatic model-based approach that enables adaptive decision making in modern virtual games. It builds upon the Integrated MDP and POMDP Learning AgeNT (IMPLANT) architecture which has shown to provide plausible adaptive decision making in modern games. However, it suffers from highly time-consuming manual model specification problems. By incorporating an automated priority sweeping based model builder for the MDP, as well as using the Tactical Agent Personality for the POMDP, the work in this paper aims to resolve these problems. Empirical proof of concept is shown based on an implementation in a modern game scenario, whereby the enhanced IMPLANT agent is shown to exhibit superior adaptation performance over the old IMPLANT agent whilst eliminating manual model specifications and at the same time still maintaining plausible speeds.