We propose a new probabilistic model for analyzing dynamic evolutions of relational data, such as additions, deletions and split & merge, of relation clusters like communities in social networks. Our proposed model abstracts observed time-varying object-object relationships into relationships between object clusters. We extend the infinite Hidden Markov model to follow dynamic and time-sensitive changes in the structure of the relational data and to estimate a number of clusters simultaneously. We show the usefulness of the model through experiments with synthetic and real-world data sets.

We develop an online variational Bayes (VB) algorithm for Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). Online LDA is based on online stochastic optimization with a natural gradient step, which we show converges to a local optimum of the VB objective function. It can handily analyze massive document collections, including those arriving in a stream. We study the performance of online LDA in several ways, including by fitting a 100-topic topic model to 3.3M articles from Wikipedia in a single pass. We demonstrate that online LDA finds topic models as good or better than those found with batch VB, and in a fraction of the time.

In this paper we propose an approximated learning framework for large scale graphical models and derive message passing algorithms for learning their parameters efficiently. We first relate CRFs and structured SVMs and show that in the CRF's primal a variant of the log-partition function, known as soft-max, smoothly approximates the hinge loss function of structured SVMs. We then propose an intuitive approximation for structured prediction problems using Fenchel duality based on a local entropy approximation that computes the exact gradients of the approximated problem and is guaranteed to converge. Unlike existing approaches, this allow us to learn graphical models with cycles and very large number of parameters efficiently. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in an image denoising task. This task was previously solved by sharing parameters across cliques. In contrast, our algorithm is able to efficiently learn large number of parameters resulting in orders of magnitude better prediction.

We tackle the fundamental problem of Bayesian active learning with noise, where we need to adaptively select from a number of expensive tests in order to identify an unknown hypothesis sampled from a known prior distribution. In the case of noise-free observations, a greedy algorithm called generalized binary search (GBS) is known to perform near-optimally. We show that if the observations are noisy, perhaps surprisingly, GBS can perform very poorly. We develop EC2, a novel, greedy active learning algorithm and prove that it is competitive with the optimal policy, thus obtaining the first competitiveness guarantees for Bayesian active learning with noisy observations. Our bounds rely on a recently discovered diminishing returns property called adaptive submodularity, generalizing the classical notion of submodular set functions to adaptive policies. Our results hold even if the tests have non–uniform cost and their noise is correlated. We also propose EffECXtive, a particularly fast approximation of EC2, and evaluate it on a Bayesian experimental design problem involving human subjects, intended to tease apart competing economic theories of how people make decisions under uncertainty.

We present an algorithm for learning high-treewidth Markov networks where inference is still tractable. This is made possible by exploiting context specific independence and determinism in the domain. The class of models our algorithm can learn has the same desirable properties as thin junction trees: polynomial inference, closed form weight learning, etc., but is much broader. Our algorithm searches for a feature that divides the state space into subspaces where the remaining variables decompose into independent subsets (conditioned on the feature or its negation) and recurses on each subspace/subset of variables until no useful new features can be found. We provide probabilistic performance guarantees for our algorithm under the assumption that the maximum feature length is k (the treewidth can be much larger) and dependences are of bounded strength. We also propose a greedy version of the algorithm that, while forgoing these guarantees, is much more efficient.Experiments on a variety of domains show that our approach compares favorably with thin junction trees and other Markov network structure learners.

The paper develops a connection between traditional perceptron algorithms and recently introduced herding algorithms. It is shown that both algorithms can be viewed as an application of the perceptron cycling theorem. This connection strengthens some herding results and suggests new (supervised) herding algorithms that, like CRFs or discriminative RBMs, make predictions by conditioning on the input attributes. We develop and investigate variants of conditional herding, and show that conditional herding leads to practical algorithms that perform better than or on par with related classifiers such as the voted perceptron and the discriminative RBM.

The sequence memoizer is a model for sequence data with state-of-the-art performance on language modeling and compression. We propose a number of improvements to the model and inference algorithm, including an enlarged range of hyperparameters, a memory-efficient representation, and inference algorithms operating on the new representation. Our derivations are based on precise definitions of the various processes that will also allow us to provide an elementary proof of the mysterious" coagulation and fragmentation properties used in the original paper on the sequence memoizer by Wood et al. (2009). We present some experimental results supporting our improvements."

We study several classes of interactive assistants from the points of view of decision theory and computational complexity. We first introduce a class of POMDPs called hidden-goal MDPs (HGMDPs), which formalize the problem of interactively assisting an agent whose goal is hidden and whose actions are observable. In spite of its restricted nature, we show that optimal action selection in finite horizon HGMDPs is PSPACE-complete even in domains with deterministic dynamics. We then introduce a more restricted model called helper action MDPs (HAMDPs), where the assistant's action is accepted by the agent when it is helpful, and can be easily ignored by the agent otherwise. We show classes of HAMDPs that are complete for PSPACE and NP along with a polynomial time class. Furthermore, we show that for general HAMDPs a simple myopic policy achieves a regret, compared to an omniscient assistant, that is bounded by the entropy of the initial goal distribution. A variation of this policy is shown to achieve worst-case regret that is logarithmic in the number of goals for any goal distribution.

We present the Copula Bayesian Network model for representing multivariate continuous distributions. Our approach builds on a novel copula-based parameterization of a conditional density that, joined with a graph that encodes independencies, offers great flexibility in modeling high-dimensional densities, while maintaining control over the form of the univariate marginals. We demonstrate the advantage of our framework for generalization over standard Bayesian networks as well as tree structured copula models for varied real-life domains that are of substantially higher dimension than those typically considered in the copula literature.

We consider reinforcement learning in partially observable domains where the agent can query an expert for demonstrations. Our nonparametric Bayesian approach combines model knowledge, inferred from expert information and independent exploration, with policy knowledge inferred from expert trajectories. We introduce priors that bias the agent towards models with both simple representations and simple policies, resulting in improved policy and model learning.