Understanding causal heterogeneity is essential for scientific discovery in domains such as biology and medicine. However, existing methods lack causal awareness, with insufficient modeling of heterogeneity, confounding, and observational constraints, leading to poor interpretability and difficulty distinguishing true causal heterogeneity from spurious associations. We propose an unsupervised framework, HCL (Interpretable Causal Mechanism-Aware Clustering with Adaptive Heterogeneous Causal Structure Learning), that jointly infers latent clusters and their associated causal structures from mixed-type observational data without requiring temporal ordering, environment labels, interventions or other prior knowledge. HCL relaxes the homogeneity and sufficiency assumptions by introducing an equivalent representation that encodes both structural heterogeneity and confounding. It further develops a bi-directional iterative strategy to alternately refine causal clustering and structure learning, along with a self-supervised regularization that balance cross-cluster universality and specificity. Together, these components enable convergence toward interpretable, heterogeneous causal patterns. Theoretically, we show identifiability of heterogeneous causal structures under mild conditions. Empirically, HCL achieves superior performance in both clustering and structure learning tasks, and recovers biologically meaningful mechanisms in real-world single-cell perturbation data, demonstrating its utility for discovering interpretable, mechanism-level causal heterogeneity.

Solving quantum many-body problems is one of the most challenging tasks in modern physics, and tensor network states have been widely used to efficiently represent quantum many-body states in recent years. Matrix product states (MPSs) [1-10], often specialized in one spatial dimension, and their generalizations to higher dimensions, such as projected entangled pair states (PEPSs) [9-14] and tree tensor networks [15-18], have been successfully applied to various quantum many-body problems in low-dimensional quantum systems by keeping the entanglement entropy of the wave function as low as possible. The number of variational parameters in tensor network states remains relatively small and grows only polynomially with the number of sites in most of quantum many-body systems. Recently, neural network quantum states (NNQSs) have been proposed as a new class of variational wave functions for quantum many-body systems [19-26]. One of the basic NNQSs is the restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) wave function [19, 27-38].

We propose a Bayesian variable selection method in the framework of modal regression for heavy-tailed responses. An efficient expectation-maximization algorithm is employed to expedite parameter estimation. A test statistic is constructed to exploit the shape of the model error distribution to effectively separate informative covariates from unimportant ones. Through simulations, we demonstrate and evaluate the efficacy of the proposed method in identifying important covariates in the presence of non-Gaussian model errors. Finally, we apply the proposed method to analyze two datasets arising in genetic and epigenetic studies.

Alignment of large language models (LLMs) has predominantly relied on pairwise preference optimization, where annotators select the better of two responses to a prompt. While simple, this approach overlooks the opportunity to learn from richer forms of human feedback, such as multiwise comparisons and top-$k$ rankings. We propose Ranked Choice Preference Optimization (RCPO), a unified framework that bridges preference optimization with (ranked) choice modeling via maximum likelihood estimation. The framework is flexible, supporting both utility-based and rank-based choice models. It subsumes several existing pairwise methods (e.g., DPO, SimPO), while providing principled training objectives for richer feedback formats. We instantiate this framework with two representative ranked choice models (Multinomial Logit and Mallows-RMJ). Empirical studies on Llama-3-8B-Instruct and Gemma-2-9B-it across AlpacaEval 2 and Arena-Hard benchmarks show that RCPO consistently outperforms competitive baselines. RCPO shows how directly leveraging ranked preference data, combined with the right choice models, yields more effective alignment. It offers a versatile and extensible foundation for incorporating (ranked) choice modeling into LLM training.

We evaluate the performance of targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) for estimating the average treatment effect in missing data scenarios under varying levels of positivity violations. We employ model- and design-based simulations, with the latter using undersmoothed highly adaptive lasso on the 'WASH Benefits Bangladesh' dataset to mimic real-world complexities. Five missingness-directed acyclic graphs are considered, capturing common missing data mechanisms in epidemiological research, particularly in one-point exposure studies. These mechanisms include also not-at-random missingness in the exposure, outcome, and confounders. We compare eight missing data methods in conjunction with TMLE as the analysis method, distinguishing between non-multiple imputation (non-MI) and multiple imputation (MI) approaches. The MI approaches use both parametric and machine-learning models. Results show that non-MI methods, particularly complete cases with TMLE incorporating an outcome-missingness model, exhibit lower bias compared to all other evaluated missing data methods and greater robustness against positivity violations across. In Comparison MI with classification and regression trees (CART) achieve lower root mean squared error, while often maintaining nominal coverage rates. Our findings highlight the trade-offs between bias and coverage, and we recommend using complete cases with TMLE incorporating an outcome-missingness model for bias reduction and MI CART when accurate confidence intervals are the priority.

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) aims to train a machine learning model using both labelled and unlabelled data. While the unlabelled data have been used in various ways to improve the prediction accuracy, the reason why unlabelled data could help is not fully understood. One interesting and promising direction is to understand SSL from a causal perspective. In light of the independent causal mechanisms principle, the unlabelled data can be helpful when the label causes the features but not vice versa. However, the causal relations between the features and labels can be complex in real world applications. In this paper, we propose a SSL framework that works with general causal models in which the variables have flexible causal relations. More specifically, we explore the causal graph structures and design corresponding causal generative models which can be learned with the help of unlabelled data. The learned causal generative model can generate synthetic labelled data for training a more accurate predictive model. We verify the effectiveness of our proposed method by empirical studies on both simulated and real data.

The estimation of unknown parameters in nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) offers valuable insights across a wide range of scientific domains. In this work, we focus on estimating plant root parameters in the Richards equation, which is essential for understanding the soil-plant system in agricultural studies. Since conventional methods are computationally intensive and often yield unstable estimates, we develop a new Gaussian process collocation method for efficient Bayesian inference. Unlike existing Gaussian process-based approaches, our method constructs an approximate posterior distribution using samples drawn from a Gaussian process model fitted to the observed data, which does not require any structural assumption about the underlying PDE. Further, we propose to use an importance sampling procedure to correct for the discrepancy between the approximate and true posterior distributions. As an alternative, we also devise a prior-guided Bayesian optimization algorithm leveraging the approximate posterior. Simulation studies demonstrate that our method yields robust estimates under various settings. Finally, we apply our method on a real agricultural data set and estimate the plant root parameters with uncertainty quantification.

Uncovering the underlying causal mechanisms of complex real-world systems remains a significant challenge, as these systems often entail high data collection costs and involve unknown interventions. We introduce MetaCaDI, the first framework to cast the joint discovery of a causal graph and unknown interventions as a meta-learning problem. MetaCaDI is a Bayesian framework that learns a shared causal graph structure across multiple experiments and is optimized to rapidly adapt to new, few-shot intervention target prediction tasks. A key innovation is our model's analytical adaptation, which uses a closed-form solution to bypass expensive and potentially unstable gradient-based bilevel optimization. Extensive experiments on synthetic and complex gene expression data demonstrate that MetaCaDI significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods. It excels at both causal graph recovery and identifying intervention targets from as few as 10 data instances, proving its robustness in data-scarce scenarios.

Hidden Quantum Markov Models (HQMMs) extend classical Hidden Markov Models to the quantum domain, offering a powerful probabilistic framework for modeling sequential data with quantum coherence. However, existing HQMM learning algorithms are highly sensitive to data corruption and lack mechanisms to ensure robustness under adversarial perturbations. In this work, we introduce the Adversarially Corrupted HQMM (AC-HQMM), which formalizes robustness analysis by allowing a controlled fraction of observation sequences to be adversarially corrupted. To learn AC-HQMMs, we propose the Robust Iterative Learning Algorithm (RILA), a derivative-free method that integrates a Remove Corrupted Rows by Entropy Filtering (RCR-EF) module with an iterative stochastic resampling procedure for physically valid Kraus operator updates. RILA incorporates L1-penalized likelihood objectives to enhance stability, resist overfitting, and remain effective under non-differentiable conditions. Across multiple HQMM and HMM benchmarks, RILA demonstrates superior convergence stability, corruption resilience, and preservation of physical validity compared to existing algorithms, establishing a principled and efficient approach for robust quantum sequential learning.

This paper studies prediction with multiple candidate models, where the goal is to combine their outputs. This task is especially challenging in heterogeneous settings, where different models may be better suited to different inputs. We propose input adaptive Bayesian Model Averaging (IA-BMA), a Bayesian method that assigns model weights conditional on the input. IA-BMA employs an input adaptive prior, and yields a posterior distribution that adapts to each prediction, which we estimate with amortized variational inference. We derive formal guarantees for its performance, relative to any single predictor selected per input. We evaluate IABMA across regression and classification tasks, studying data from personalized cancer treatment, credit-card fraud detection, and UCI datasets. IA-BMA consistently delivers more accurate and better-calibrated predictions than both non-adaptive baselines and existing adaptive methods. Many applications require adaptive predictions. In personalized medicine, different patients respond differently to the same treatment (Mahajan et al., 2023); in fairness-sensitive domains, predictions need to adapt to subpopulations (Wang et al., 2019; Grother et al., 2019); and in fraud detection, behavioral data is often heteroskedastic and varies substantially across inputs (V armedja et al., 2019).