Conventional dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are based on the homogeneous Markov assumption, which is too restrictive in many practical applications. Various approaches to relax the homogeneity assumption have therefore been proposed in the last few years. The present paper aims to improve the flexibility of two recent versions of non-homogeneous DBNs, which either (i) suffer from the need for data discretization, or (ii) assume a time-invariant network structure. Allowing the network structure to be fully flexible leads to the risk of overfitting and inflated inference uncertainty though, especially in the highly topical field of systems biology, where independent measurements tend to be sparse. In the present paper we investigate three conceptually different regularization schemes based on inter-segment information sharing. We assess the performance in a comparative evaluation study based on simulated data. We compare the predicted segmentation of gene expression time series obtained during embryogenesis in Drosophila melanogaster with other state-of-the-art techniques. We conclude our evaluation with an application to synthetic biology, where the objective is to predict a known regulatory network of five genes in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

This paper explores links between basis construction methods in Markov decision processes and power series expansions of value functions. This perspective provides a useful framework to analyze properties of existing bases, as well as provides insight into constructing more effective bases. Krylov and Bellman error bases are based on the Neumann series expansion. These bases incur very large initial Bellman errors, and can converge rather slowly as the discount factor approaches unity. The Laurent series expansion, which relates discounted and average-reward formulations, provides both an explanation for this slow convergence as well as suggests a way to construct more efficient basis representations. The first two terms in the Laurent series represent the scaled average-reward and the average-adjusted sum of rewards, and subsequent terms expand the discounted value function using powers of a generalized inverse called the Drazin (or group inverse) of a singular matrix derived from the transition matrix. Experiments show that Drazin bases converge considerably more quickly than several other bases, particularly for large values of the discount factor. An incremental variant of Drazin bases called Bellman average-reward bases (BARBs) is described, which provides some of the same benefits at lower computational cost.

Optimal coding provides a guiding principle for understanding the representation of sensory variables in neural populations. Here we consider the influence of a prior probability distribution over sensory variables on the optimal allocation of cells and spikes in a neural population. We model the spikes of each cell as samples from an independent Poisson process with rate governed by an associated tuning curve. For this response model, we approximate the Fisher information in terms of the density and amplitude of the tuning curves, under the assumption that tuning width varies inversely with cell density. We consider a family of objective functions based on the expected value, over the sensory prior, of a functional of the Fisher information. This family includes lower bounds on mutual information and perceptual discriminability as special cases. In all cases, we find a closed form expression for the optimum, in which the density and gain of the cells in the population are power law functions of the stimulus prior. This also implies a power law relationship between the prior and perceptual discriminability. We show preliminary evidence that the theory successfully predicts the relationship between empirically measured stimulus priors, physiologically measured neural response properties (cell density, tuning widths, and firing rates), and psychophysically measured discrimination thresholds.

Figure/ground assignment, in which the visual image is divided into nearer (figural) andfarther (ground) surfaces, is an essential step in visual processing, but its underlying computational mechanisms are poorly understood. Figural assignment (often referred to as border ownership) can vary along a contour, suggesting a spatially distributed process whereby local and global cues are combined to yield local estimates of border ownership. In this paper we model figure/ground estimation ina Bayesian belief network, attempting to capture the propagation of border ownership across the image as local cues (contour curvature and T-junctions) interact withmore global cues to yield a figure/ground assignment. Our network includes as a nonlocal factor skeletal (medial axis) structure, under the hypothesis that medial structure "draws" border ownership so that borders are owned by the skeletal hypothesis that best explains them. We also briefly present a psychophysical experimentin which we measured local border ownership along a contour at various distances from an inducing cue (a T-junction).

Upstream supervised topic models have been widely used for complicated scene understanding. However, existing maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) schemes can make the prediction model learning independent of latent topic discovery and result in an imbalanced prediction rule for scene classification. This paper presents a joint max-margin and max-likelihood learning method for upstream scene understanding models, in which latent topic discovery and prediction model estimation are closely coupled and well-balanced. The optimization problem is efficiently solved with a variational EM procedure, which iteratively solves an online loss-augmented SVM. We demonstrate the advantages of the large-margin approach on both an 8-category sports dataset and the 67-class MIT indoor scene dataset for scene categorization.

Recently, some variants of the $l_1$ norm, particularly matrix norms such as the $l_{1,2}$ and $l_{1,\infty}$ norms, have been widely used in multi-task learning, compressed sensing and other related areas to enforce sparsity via joint regularization. In this paper, we unify the $l_{1,2}$ and $l_{1,\infty}$ norms by considering a family of $l_{1,q}$ norms for $1 < q\le\infty$ and study the problem of determining the most appropriate sparsity enforcing norm to use in the context of multi-task feature selection. Using the generalized normal distribution, we provide a probabilistic interpretation of the general multi-task feature selection problem using the $l_{1,q}$ norm. Based on this probabilistic interpretation, we develop a probabilistic model using the noninformative Jeffreys prior. We also extend the model to learn and exploit more general types of pairwise relationships between tasks. For both versions of the model, we devise expectation-maximization~(EM) algorithms to learn all model parameters, including $q$, automatically. Experiments have been conducted on two cancer classification applications using microarray gene expression data.

We consider Markov decision processes where the values of the parameters are uncertain. This uncertainty is described by a sequence of nested sets (that is, each set contains the previous one), each of which corresponds to a probabilistic guarantee for a different confidence level so that a set of admissible probability distributions of the unknown parameters is specified. This formulation models the case where the decision maker is aware of and wants to exploit some (yet imprecise) a-priori information of the distribution of parameters, and arises naturally in practice where methods to estimate the confidence region of parameters abound. We propose a decision criterion based on *distributional robustness*: the optimal policy maximizes the expected total reward under the most adversarial probability distribution over realizations of the uncertain parameters that is admissible (i.e., it agrees with the a-priori information). We show that finding the optimal distributionally robust policy can be reduced to a standard robust MDP where the parameters belong to a single uncertainty set, hence it can be computed in polynomial time under mild technical conditions.

The reinforcement learning community has explored many approaches to obtain- ing value estimates and models to guide decision making; these approaches, how- ever, do not usually provide a measure of confidence in the estimate. Accurate estimates of an agent’s confidence are useful for many applications, such as bi- asing exploration and automatically adjusting parameters to reduce dependence on parameter-tuning. Computing confidence intervals on reinforcement learning value estimates, however, is challenging because data generated by the agent- environment interaction rarely satisfies traditional assumptions. Samples of value- estimates are dependent, likely non-normally distributed and often limited, partic- ularly in early learning when confidence estimates are pivotal. In this work, we investigate how to compute robust confidences for value estimates in continuous Markov decision processes. We illustrate how to use bootstrapping to compute confidence intervals online under a changing policy (previously not possible) and prove validity under a few reasonable assumptions. We demonstrate the applica- bility of our confidence estimation algorithms with experiments on exploration, parameter estimation and tracking.

We propose a discriminative latent model for annotating images with unaligned object-level textual annotations. Instead of using the bag-of-words image representation currently popular in the computer vision community, our model explicitly captures more intricate relationships underlying visual and textual information. In particular, we model the mapping that translates image regions to annotations. This mapping allows us to relate image regions to their corresponding annotation terms. We also model the overall scene label as latent information. This allows us to cluster test images. Our training data consist of images and their associated annotations. But we do not have access to the ground-truth region-to-annotation mapping or the overall scene label. We develop a novel variant of the latent SVM framework to model them as latent variables. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model compared with other baseline methods.

We consider problems for which one has incomplete binary matrices that evolve with time (e.g., the votes of legislators on particular legislation, with each year characterized by a different such matrix). An objective of such analysis is to infer structure and inter-relationships underlying the matrices, here defined by latent features associated with each axis of the matrix. In addition, it is assumed that documents are available for the entities associated with at least one of the matrix axes. By jointly analyzing the matrices and documents, one may be used to inform the other within the analysis, and the model offers the opportunity to predict matrix values (e.g., votes) based only on an associated document (e.g., legislation). The research presented here merges two areas of machine-learning that have previously been investigated separately: incomplete-matrix analysis and topic modeling. The analysis is performed from a Bayesian perspective, with efficient inference constituted via Gibbs sampling. The framework is demonstrated by considering all voting data and available documents (legislation) during the 220-year lifetime of the United States Senate and House of Representatives.