We introduce CIM, a Commonsense Inference Memory system utilizing both Extended Semantic Networks and Bayesian Networks that builds upon the commonsense knowledgebase ConceptNet. CIM introduces a new technique for self-assembling Bayesian Networks that allows only relevant parts of the commonsense database to affect the inference. The Bayesian Network include the activity in the input sentences and the related activities appearing in the commonsense database. They are used to interpret and infer the meaning of the set of sentences input. Without self-assembled networks, only relevant inference is performed, speeding up performance of reasoning with commonsense knowledge. We demonstrate that our system can disambiguate the needs of the user even if they do not state them directly, and do not use keywords. This ability would not be possible without either the use of commonsense or significant training. Eventually this approach may be applied to increase the effectiveness of other natural language understanding techniques as well.

Developments in sophisticated mobile physiological sensors have presented many novel opportunities for monitoring coaching of individuals. In this work, we investigate the ability to utilize physiological data to recognize the state ofa user while exercising. We discuss recognition of user state using data suchas heart rate, respiration rate, and activity level. We also discuss the development of a motivational agent which utilizes the physiological data to help encourage a user during an exercise routine.

Sustainability requires emphasizing the importance of environmental causes and effects among design knowledge from heterogeneous stakeholders to make a sustainable decision. Recently, such causes and effects have been well developed in ontological representation, which has been challenged to generate and integrate multiple domain knowledge due to its domain specific characteristics. Moreover, it is too challengeable to represent heterogeneous, domain-specific design knowledge in a standardized way. Causal knowledge can meet the necessity of knowledge integration in domains. Therefore, this paper aims to develop a causal knowledge integration system with the authors’ previous mathematical causal knowledge representation.

Traditional machine-learned ranking systems for web search are often trained to capture stationary relevance of documents to queries, which has limited ability to track non-stationary user intention in a timely manner. In recency search, for instance, the relevance of documents to a query on breaking news often changes significantly over time, requiring effective adaptation to user intention. In this paper, we focus on recency search and study a number of algorithms to improve ranking results by leveraging user click feedback. Our contributions are three-fold. First, we use real search sessions collected in a random exploration bucket for \emph{reliable} offline evaluation of these algorithms, which provides an unbiased comparison across algorithms without online bucket tests. Second, we propose a re-ranking approach to improve search results for recency queries using user clicks. Third, our empirical comparison of a dozen algorithms on real-life search data suggests importance of a few algorithmic choices in these applications, including generalization across different query-document pairs, specialization to popular queries, and real-time adaptation of user clicks.

Scientific advances over the past 150 years, particularly in the medical field, have allowed the extension of life expectancy in western countries and this trend seems to increase in future years. Conservative estimates suggest that by 2030 in EU countries the proportion of people over 60 years regard the entire population will be around 50%; this means that we will see a gradual increase in the number of those subjects with chronic diseases (ie diseases not involving healing), that will therefore increase the cost and effort over health care facilities [1]. As consequence of the exponential growth of hardware and software infrastructure it is possible to rethink the whole approach to the treatment of complex chronic disease, by limiting the hospitalization only to a severe worsening of patient's condition. This was the original idea behind the CHRONIOUS project: constructing a generic platform to monitor, in an unobtrusive way, a chronic disease patient with two goals[2]: - Improve the patients quality of life, by reducing as much as possible the hospitalizations.

The estimation of asset return distributions is crucial for determining optimal trading strategies. One convenient estimation approach selects a distribution model and estimates its parameters. The advantage of this approach is the ease with which probability distributions can be calibrated and applied in post-processing. The disadvantage of assuming a particular parametric distribution is that inferences and decisions depend critically on the choice of distribution. For example, asset returns frequently feature large "outlying" values, making distributions with light tails inapplicable. Semi-parametric methods attempt to capture the advantages but not the disadvantages of a parametric specification of a returns distribution by using a more flexible functional form. Most prominent among the semi-parametric distributions are mixtures of distributions. They provide a flexible specification and, under certain conditions, can approximate distributions of any form.

In Artificial Intelligence with Coalition Structure Generation (CSG) one refers to those cooperative complex problems that require to find an optimal partition, maximising a social welfare, of a set of entities involved in a system into exhaustive and disjoint coalitions. The solution of the CSG problem finds applications in many fields such as Machine Learning (covering machines, clustering), Data Mining (decision tree, discretization), Graph Theory, Natural Language Processing (aggregation), Semantic Web (service composition), and Bioinformatics. The problem of finding the optimal coalition structure is NP-complete. In this paper we present a greedy adaptive search procedure (GRASP) with path-relinking to efficiently search the space of coalition structures. Experiments and comparisons to other algorithms prove the validity of the proposed method in solving this hard combinatorial problem.

Multiple kernel learning (MKL), structured sparsity, and multi-task learning have recently received considerable attention. In this paper, we show how different MKL algorithms can be understood as applications of either regularization on the kernel weights or block-norm-based regularization, which is more common in structured sparsity and multi-task learning. We show that these two regularization strategies can be systematically mapped to each other through a concave conjugate operation. When the kernel-weight-based regularizer is separable into components, we can naturally consider a generative probabilistic model behind MKL. Based on this model, we propose learning algorithms for the kernel weights through the maximization of marginal likelihood. We show through numerical experiments that $\ell_2$-norm MKL and Elastic-net MKL achieve comparable accuracy to uniform kernel combination. Although uniform kernel combination might be preferable from its simplicity, $\ell_2$-norm MKL and Elastic-net MKL can learn the usefulness of the information sources represented as kernels. In particular, Elastic-net MKL achieves sparsity in the kernel weights.

Modern statistical applications involving large data sets have focused attention on statistical methodologies which are both efficient computationally and able to deal with the screening of large numbers of different candidate models. Here we consider computationally efficient variational Bayes approaches to inference in high-dimensional heteroscedastic linear regression, where both the mean and variance are described in terms of linear functions of the predictors and where the number of predictors can be larger than the sample size. We derive a closed form variational lower bound on the log marginal likelihood useful for model selection, and propose a novel fast greedy search algorithm on the model space which makes use of one step optimization updates to the variational lower bound in the current model for screening large numbers of candidate predictor variables for inclusion/exclusion in a computationally thrifty way. We show that the model search strategy we suggest is related to widely used orthogonal matching pursuit algorithms for model search but yields a framework for potentially extending these algorithms to more complex models. The methodology is applied in simulations and in two real examples involving prediction for food constituents using NIR technology and prediction of disease progression in diabetes.

Deciding how to act in partially observable environments remains an active area of research. Identifying good sequences of decisions is particularly challenging when good control performance requires planning multiple steps into the future in domains with many states. Towards addressing this challenge, we present an online, forward-search algorithm called the Posterior Belief Distribution (PBD). PBD leverages a novel method for calculating the posterior distribution over beliefs that result after a sequence of actions is taken, given the set of observation sequences that could be received during this process. This method allows us to efficiently evaluate the expected reward of a sequence of primitive actions, which we refer to as macro-actions. We present a formal analysis of our approach, and examine its performance on two very large simulation experiments: scientific exploration and a target monitoring domain. We also demonstrate our algorithm being used to control a real robotic helicopter in a target monitoring experiment, which suggests that our approach has practical potential for planning in real-world, large partially observable domains where a multi-step lookahead is required to achieve good performance.