Various operational control systems (OCS) are naturally modeled as Markov Decision Processes. OCS often enjoy access to predictions of future events that have substantial impact on their operations. For example, reliable forecasts of extreme weather conditions are widely available, and such events can affect typical request patterns for customer response management systems, the flight and service time of airplanes, or the supply and demand patterns for electricity. The space of exogenous events impacting OCS can be very large, prohibiting their modeling within the MDP; moreover, for many of these exogenous events there is no useful predictive, probabilistic model. Realtime predictions, however, possibly with a short lead-time, are often available. In this work we motivate a model which combines offline MDP infinite horizon planning with realtime adjustments given specific predictions of future exogenous events, and suggest a framework in which such predictions are captured and trigger real-time planning problems. We propose a number of variants of existing MDP solution algorithms, adapted to this context, and evaluate them empirically.

We propose a fast batch learning method for linear-chain Conditional Random Fields (CRFs) based on Newton-CG methods. Newton-CG methods are a variant of Newton method for high-dimensional problems. They only require the Hessian-vector products instead of the full Hessian matrices. To speed up Newton-CG methods for the CRF learning, we derive a novel dynamic programming procedure for the Hessian-vector products of the CRF objective function. The proposed procedure can reuse the byproducts of the time-consuming gradient computation for the Hessian-vector products to drastically reduce the total computation time of the Newton-CG methods. In experiments with tasks in natural language processing, the proposed method outperforms a conventional quasi-Newton method. Remarkably, the proposed method is competitive with online learning algorithms that are fast but unstable.

Since learning in Boltzmann machines is typically quite slow, there is a need to restrict connections within hidden layers. However, theresulting states of hidden units exhibit statistical dependencies. Based on this observation, we propose using l1/l2 regularization upon the activation probabilities of hidden units in restricted Boltzmann machines to capture the local dependencies among hidden units. This regularization not only encourages hidden units of many groups to be inactive given observed data but also makes hidden units within a group compete with each other for modeling observed data. Thus, the l1/l2 regularization on RBMs yields sparsity at both the group and the hidden unit levels. We call RBMs trained with the regularizer sparse group RBMs (SGRBMs). The proposed SGRBMs are appliedto model patches of natural images, handwritten digits and OCR English letters. Then to emphasize that SGRBMs can learn more discriminative features we applied SGRBMs to pretrain deep networks for classification tasks. Furthermore, we illustrate the regularizer can also be applied to deep Boltzmann machines, which lead to sparse group deep Boltzmann machines. When adapted to the MNIST data set, a two-layer sparse group Boltzmann machine achieves an error rate of 0.84%, which is, to our knowledge, the best published result on the permutation-invariant version of the MNIST task.

Behaviour recognition is the process of inferring the behaviour of an individual from a series of observations acquired from sensors such as in a smart home. The majority of existing behaviour recognition systems are based on supervised learning algorithms, which means that training them requires a preprocessed, annotated dataset. Unfortunately, annotating a dataset is a rather tedious process and one that is prone to error. In this paper we suggest a way to identify structure in the data based on text compression and the edit distance between words, without any prior labelling. We demonstrate that by using this method we can automatically identify patterns and segment the data into patterns that correspond to human behaviours. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method, we use a dataset from a smart home and compare the labels produced by our approach with the labels assigned by a human to the activities in the dataset. We find that the results are promising and show significant improvement in the recognition accuracy over Self-Organising Maps (SOMs).

We present a spectrum-based, sequential software debugging approach coined Sequoia, that greedily selects tests out of a suite of tests to narrow down the set of diagnostic candidates with a minimum number of tests. Sequoia handles multiple faults, that can be intermittent, at polynomial time and space complexity, due to a novel, approximate diagnostic entropy estimation approach, which considers the subset of diagnoses that cover almost all Bayesian posterior probability mass. Synthetic experiments show that Sequoia achieves much better diagnostic uncertainty reduction compared to random test sequencing.Real programs, taken from the Software Infrastructure Repository, confirm Sequoia's better performance, with a test reduction up to 80% compared to random test sequences.

Computer Go presents a challenging problem for machine learning agents. With the number of possible board states estimated to be larger than the number of hydrogen atoms in the universe, learning effective policies or board evaluation functions is extremely difficult. In this paper we describe Cortigo, a system that efficiently and autonomously learns useful generalizations for large state-space classification problems such as Go. Cortigo uses a hierarchical generative model loosely related to the human visual cortex to recognize Go board positions well enough to suggest promising next moves. We begin by briefly describing and providing motivation for research in the computer Go domain. We describe Cortigo’s ability to learn predictive models based on large subsets of the Go board and demonstrate how using Cortigo’s learned models as additive knowledge in a state-of-the-art computer Go player (Fuego) significantly improves its playing strength.

This paper presents a generative model of eye-hand coordination. We use numerical optimization to solve for the joint behavior of an eye and two hands, deriving a predicted motion pattern from first principles, without imposing heuristics. We model the planar scene as a POMDP with 17 continuous state dimensions. Belief-space optimization is facilitated by using a nominal-belief heuristic, whereby we assume (during planning) that the maximum likelihood observation is always obtained. Since a globally-optimal solution for such a high-dimensional domain is computationally intractable, we employ local optimization in the belief domain. By solving for a locally-optimal plan through belief space, we generate a motion pattern of mutual coordination between hands and eye: the eye's saccades disambiguate the scene in a task-relevant manner, and the hands' motions anticipate the eye's saccades. Finally, the model is validated through a behavioral experiment, in which human subjects perform the same eye-hand coordination task. We show how simulation is congruent with the experimental results.

Consider the problem of protecting endangered species by selecting patches of land to be used for conservation purposes. Typically, the availability of patches changes over time, and recommendations must be made dynamically. This is a challenging prototypical example of a sequential optimization problem under uncertainty in computational sustainability. Existing techniques do not scale to problems of realistic size. In this paper, we develop an efficient algorithm for adaptively making recommendations for dynamic conservation planning, and prove that it obtains near-optimal performance. We further evaluate our approach on a detailed reserve design case study of conservation planning for three rare species in the Pacific Northwest of the United States.

In order to better protect and conserve biodiversity, ecologists use machine learning and statistics to understand how species respond to their environment and to predict how they will respond to future climate change, habitat loss and other threats. A fundamental modeling task is to estimate the probability that a given species is present in (or uses) a site, conditional on environmental variables such as precipitation and temperature. For a limited number of species, survey data consisting of both presence and absence records are available, and can be used to fit a variety of conventional classification and regression models. For most species, however, the available data consist only of occurrence records --- locations where the species has been observed. In two closely-related but separate bodies of ecological literature, diverse special-purpose models have been developed that contrast occurrence data with a random sample of available environmental conditions. The most widespread statistical approaches involve either fitting an exponential model of species' conditional probability of presence, or fitting a naive logistic model in which the random sample of available conditions is treated as absence data; both approaches have well-known drawbacks, and do not necessarily produce valid probabilities. After summarizing existing methods, we overcome their drawbacks by introducing a new scaled binomial loss function for estimating an underlying logistic model of species presence/absence. Like the Expectation-Maximization approach of Ward et al. and the method of Steinberg and Cardell, our approach requires an estimate of population prevalence, $\Pr(y=1)$, since prevalence is not identifiable from occurrence data alone. In contrast to the latter two methods, our loss function is straightforward to integrate into a variety of existing modeling frameworks such as generalized linear and additive models and boosted regression trees. We also demonstrate that approaches by Lele and Keim and by Lancaster and Imbens that surmount the identifiability issue by making parametric data assumptions do not typically produce valid probability estimates.

We describe a memory-efficient implementation of a dynamic programming algorithm for learning the optimal structure of a Bayesian network from training data. The algorithm leverages the layered structure of the dynamic programming graphs representing the recursive decomposition of the problem to reduce the memory requirements of the algorithm from O(n2 n ) to O(C(n, n/2)), where C(n, n/2) is the binomial coefficient. Experimental results show that the approach runs up to an order of magnitude faster and scales to datasets with more variables than previous approaches.