We study the convergence of off-policy TD(0) with linear function approximation when used to approximate the expected discounted reward in a Markov chain. It is well known that the combination of off-policy learning and function approximation can lead to divergence of the algorithm. Existing results for this setting modify the algorithm, for instance by reweighing the updates using importance sampling. This establishes convergence at the expense of additional complexity. In contrast, our approach is to analyse the standard algorithm, but to restrict our attention to the class of reversible Markov chains. We demonstrate convergence under this mild reversibility condition on the structure of the chain, which in many applications can be assumed using domain knowledge. In particular, we establish a convergence guarantee under an upper bound on the discount factor in terms of the difference between the on-policy and off-policy process. This improves upon known results in the literature that state that convergence holds for a sufficiently small discount factor by establishing an explicit bound. Convergence is with probability one and achieves projected Bellman error equal to zero. To obtain these results, we adapt the stochastic approximation framework that was used by Tsitsiklis and Van Roy [1997 for the on-policy case, to the off-policy case. We illustrate our results using different types of reversible Markov chains, such as one-dimensional random walks and random walks on a weighted graph.

Quantifying the uncertainty in the output of a neural network is essential for deployment in scientific or engineering applications where decisions must be made under limited or noisy data. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide a framework for this purpose by constructing a Bayesian posterior distribution over the network parameters. However, the prior, which is of key importance in any Bayesian setting, is rarely meaningful for BNNs. This is because the complexity of the input-to-output map of a BNN makes it difficult to understand how certain distributions enforce any interpretable constraint on the output space. Gaussian processes (GPs), on the other hand, are often preferred in uncertainty quantification tasks due to their interpretability. The drawback is that GPs are limited to small datasets without advanced techniques, which often rely on the covariance kernel having a specific structure. To address these challenges, we introduce a new class of priors for BNNs, called Mercer priors, such that the resulting BNN has samples which approximate that of a specified GP. The method works by defining a prior directly over the network parameters from the Mercer representation of the covariance kernel, and does not rely on the network having a specific structure. In doing so, we can exploit the scalability of BNNs in a meaningful Bayesian way.

Variational mean field approximations tend to struggle with contemporary overparametrized deep neural networks. Where a Bayesian treatment is usually associated with high-quality predictions and uncertainties, the practical reality has been the opposite, with unstable training, poor predictive power, and subpar calibration. Building upon recent work on reparametrizations of neural networks, we propose a simple variational family that considers two independent linear subspaces of the parameter space. These represent functional changes inside and outside the support of training data. This allows us to build a fully-correlated approximate posterior reflecting the overparametrization that tunes easy-to-interpret hyperparameters. We develop scalable numerical routines that maximize the associated evidence lower bound (ELBO) and sample from the approximate posterior. Empirically, we observe state-of-the-art performance across tasks, models, and datasets compared to a wide array of baseline methods. Our results show that approximate Bayesian inference applied to deep neural networks is far from a lost cause when constructing inference mechanisms that reflect the geometry of reparametrizations.

Suicide remains a public health challenge, necessitating improved detection methods to facilitate timely intervention and treatment. This systematic review evaluates the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) in assessing suicide risk through acoustic analysis of speech. Following PRISMA guidelines, we analyzed 33 articles selected from PubMed, Cochrane, Scopus, and Web of Science databases. The last search was conducted in February 2025. Risk of bias was assessed using the PROBAST tool. Studies analyzing acoustic features between individuals at risk of suicide (RS) and those not at risk (NRS) were included, while studies lacking acoustic data, a suicide-related focus, or sufficient methodological details were excluded. Sample sizes varied widely and were reported in terms of participants or speech segments, depending on the study. Results were synthesized narratively based on acoustic features and classifier performance. Findings consistently showed significant acoustic feature variations between RS and NRS populations, particularly involving jitter, fundamental frequency (F0), Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC), and power spectral density (PSD). Classifier performance varied based on algorithms, modalities, and speech elicitation methods, with multimodal approaches integrating acoustic, linguistic, and metadata features demonstrating superior performance. Among the 29 classifier-based studies, reported AUC values ranged from 0.62 to 0.985 and accuracies from 60% to 99.85%. Most datasets were imbalanced in favor of NRS, and performance metrics were rarely reported separately by group, limiting clear identification of direction of effect.

The growing body of literature on training-data reconstruction attacks raises significant concerns about deploying neural network classifiers trained on sensitive data. However, differentially private (DP) training (e.g. using DP-SGD) can defend against such attacks with large training datasets causing only minimal loss of network utility. Folklore, heuristics, and (albeit pessimistic) DP bounds suggest this fails for networks trained with small per-class datasets, yet to the best of our knowledge the literature offers no compelling evidence. We directly demonstrate this vulnerability by significantly extending reconstruction attack capabilities under a realistic adversary threat model for few-shot transfer learned image classifiers. We design new white-box and black-box attacks and find that DP-SGD is unable to defend against these without significant classifier utility loss. To address this, we propose a novel homomorphic encryption (HE) method that protects training data without degrading model's accuracy. Conventional HE secures model's input data and requires costly homomorphic implementation of the entire classifier. In contrast, our new scheme is computationally efficient and protects training data rather than input data. This is achieved by means of a simple role-reversal where classifier input data is unencrypted but transfer-learned weights are encrypted. Classifier outputs remain encrypted, thus preventing both white-box and black-box (and any other) training-data reconstruction attacks. Under this new scheme only a trusted party with a private decryption key can obtain the classifier class decisions.

Bayesian clustering accounts for uncertainty but is computationally demanding at scale. Furthermore, real-world datasets often contain missing values, and simple imputation ignores the associated uncertainty, resulting in suboptimal results. We present Cluster-PFN, a Transformer-based model that extends Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) to unsupervised Bayesian clustering. Trained entirely on synthetic datasets generated from a finite Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) prior, Cluster-PFN learns to estimate the posterior distribution over both the number of clusters and the cluster assignments. Our method estimates the number of clusters more accurately than handcrafted model selection procedures such as AIC, BIC and Variational Inference (VI), and achieves clustering quality competitive with VI while being orders of magnitude faster. Cluster-PFN can be trained on complex priors that include missing data, outperforming imputation-based baselines on real-world genomic datasets, at high missingness. These results show that the Cluster-PFN can provide scalable and flexible Bayesian clustering.

We present an information-theoretic framework for discrete diffusion models that yields principled estimators of log-likelihood using score-matching losses. Inspired by the I-MMSE identity for the Gaussian setup, we derive analogous results for the discrete setting. Specifically, we introduce the Information-Minimum Denoising Score Entropy (I-MDSE) relation, which links mutual information between data and its diffused version to the minimum denoising score entropy (DSE) loss. We extend this theory to masked diffusion and establish the Information-Minimum Denoising Cross-Entropy (I-MDCE) relation, connecting cross-entropy losses to mutual information in discrete masked processes. These results provide a time-integral decomposition of the log-likelihood of the data in terms of optimal score-based losses, showing that commonly used losses such as DSE and DCE are not merely variational bounds but tight and principled estimators of log-likelihood. The I-MDCE decomposition further enables practical extensions, including time-free formula, conditional likelihood estimation in prompt-response tasks, and coupled Monte Carlo estimation of likelihood ratios. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data confirm the accuracy, variance stability, and utility of our estimators. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/Dongjae0324/infodis.

The theoretical analysis of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) is commonly split into two cases - the average-reward case and the discounted-reward case - which, while sharing similarities, are typically analyzed separately. In this work, we extend a recently introduced geometric interpretation of MDPs for the discounted-reward case to the average-reward case, thereby unifying both. This allows us to extend a major result known for the discounted-reward case to the average-reward case: under a unique and ergodic optimal policy, the Value Iteration algorithm achieves a geometric convergence rate.

This paper studies group target trajectory intent as the outcome of a cooperative game where the complex-spatio trajectories are modeled using an NLP-based generative model. In our framework, the group intent is specified by the characteristic function of a cooperative game, and allocations for players in the cooperative game are specified by either the core, the Shapley value, or the nucleolus. The resulting allocations induce probability distributions that govern the coordinated spatio-temporal trajectories of the targets that reflect the group's underlying intent. We address two key questions: (1) How can the intent of a group trajectory be optimally formalized as the characteristic function of a cooperative game? (2) How can such intent be inferred from noisy observations of the targets? To answer the first question, we introduce a Fisher-information-based characteristic function of the cooperative game, which yields probability distributions that generate coordinated spatio-temporal patterns. As a generative model for these patterns, we develop an NLP-based generative model built on formal grammar, enabling the creation of realistic multi-target trajectory data. To answer the second question, we train a Graph Transformer Neural Network (GTNN) to infer group trajectory intent-expressed as the characteristic function of the cooperative game-from observational data with high accuracy. The self-attention function of the GTNN depends on the track estimates. Thus, the formulation and algorithms provide a multi-layer approach that spans target tracking (Bayesian signal processing) and the GTNN (for group intent inference).

Autonomous drone technology holds significant promise for enhancing search and rescue operations during evacuations by guiding humans toward safety and supporting broader emergency response efforts. However, their application in dynamic, real-time evacuation support remains limited. Existing models often overlook the psychological and emotional complexity of human behavior under extreme stress. In real-world fire scenarios, evacuees frequently deviate from designated safe routes due to panic and uncertainty. To address these challenges, this paper presents a multi-agent coordination framework in which autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) assist human evacuees in real-time by locating, intercepting, and guiding them to safety under uncertain conditions. We model the problem as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), where two heterogeneous UAV agents, a high-level rescuer (HLR) and a low-level rescuer (LLR), coordinate through shared observations and complementary capabilities. Human behavior is captured using an agent-based model grounded in empirical psychology, where panic dynamically affects decision-making and movement in response to environmental stimuli. The environment features stochastic fire spread, unknown evacuee locations, and limited visibility, requiring UAVs to plan over long horizons to search for humans and adapt in real-time. Our framework employs the Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithm with recurrent policies to enable robust decision-making in partially observable settings. Simulation results demonstrate that the UAV team can rapidly locate and intercept evacuees, significantly reducing the time required for them to reach safety compared to scenarios without UAV assistance.