We propose a novel class of Bayesian nonparametric models for sequential data called fragmentation-coagulation processes (FCPs). FCPs model a set of sequences using a partition-valued Markov process which evolves by splitting and merging clusters. An FCP is exchangeable, projective, stationary and reversible, and its equilibrium distributions are given by the Chinese restaurant process. As opposed to hidden Markov models, FCPs allow for flexible modelling of the number of clusters, and they avoid label switching non-identifiability problems. We develop an efficient Gibbs sampler for FCPs which uses uniformization and the forward-backward algorithm. Our development of FCPs is motivated by applications in population genetics, and we demonstrate the utility of FCPs on problems of genotype imputation with phased and unphased SNP data.

Kernel-based reinforcement-learning (KBRL) is a method for learning a decision policy from a set of sample transitions which stands out for its strong theoretical guarantees. However, the size of the approximator grows with the number of transitions, which makes the approach impractical for large problems. In this paper we introduce a novel algorithm to improve the scalability of KBRL. We resort to a special decomposition of a transition matrix, called stochastic factorization, to fix the size of the approximator while at the same time incorporating all the information contained in the data. The resulting algorithm, kernel-based stochastic factorization (KBSF), is much faster but still converges to a unique solution. We derive a theoretical upper bound for the distance between the value functions computed by KBRL and KBSF. The effectiveness of our method is illustrated with computational experiments on four reinforcement-learning problems, including a difficult task in which the goal is to learn a neurostimulation policy to suppress the occurrence of seizures in epileptic rat brains. We empirically demonstrate that the proposed approach is able to compress the information contained in KBRL's model. Also, on the tasks studied, KBSF outperforms two of the most prominent reinforcement-learning algorithms, namely least-squares policy iteration and fitted Q-iteration.

Log-linear models are widely used probability models for statistical pattern recognition. Typically, log-linear models are trained according to a convex criterion. In recent years, the interest in log-linear models has greatly increased. The optimization of log-linear model parameters is costly and therefore an important topic, in particular for large-scale applications. Different optimization algorithms have been evaluated empirically in many papers. In this work, we analyze the optimization problem analytically and show that the training of log-linear models can be highly ill-conditioned. We verify our findings on two handwriting tasks. By making use of our convergence analysis, we obtain good results on a large-scale continuous handwriting recognition task with a simple and generic approach.

Inference in matriX-variate Gaussian models has major applications for multi-output prediction and joint learning of row and column covariances from matrix-Variate data.

We present a new algorithm for exactly solving decision-making problems represented as an influence diagram. We do not require the usual assumptions of no forgetting and regularity, which allows us to solve problems with limited information. The algorithm, which implements a sophisticated variable elimination procedure, is empirically shown to outperform a state-of-the-art algorithm in randomly generated problems of up to 150 variables and $10^{64}$ strategies.

Is it possible to crowdsource categorization? Amongst the challenges: (a) each annotator has only a partial view of the data, (b) different annotators may have different clustering criteria and may produce different numbers of categories, (c) the underlying category structure may be hierarchical. We propose a Bayesian model of how annotators may approach clustering and show how one may infer clusters/categories, as well as annotator parameters, using this model. Our experiments, carried out on large collections of images, suggest that Bayesian crowdclustering works well and may be superior to single-expert annotations.

We present explicit classes of probability distributions that can be learned by Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) depending on the number of units that they contain, and which are representative for the expressive power of the model. We use this to show that the maximal Kullback-Leibler divergence to the RBM model with n visible and m hidden units is bounded from above by (n-1)-log(m+1). In this way we can specify the number of hidden units that guarantees a sufficiently rich model containing different classes of distributions and respecting a given error tolerance.

Many applications in computer vision measure the similarity between images or image patches based on some statistics such as oriented gradients. These are often modeled implicitly or explicitly with a Gaussian noise assumption, leading to the use of the Euclidean distance when comparing image descriptors. In this paper, we show that the statistics of gradient based image descriptors often follow a heavy-tailed distribution, which undermines any principled motivation for the use of Euclidean distances. We advocate for the use of a distance measure based on the likelihood ratio test with appropriate probabilistic models that fit the empirical data distribution. We instantiate this similarity measure with the Gamma-compound-Laplace distribution, and show significant improvement over existing distance measures in the application of SIFT feature matching, at relatively low computational cost.

Inferring key unobservable features of individuals is an important task in the applied sciences. In particular, an important source of data in fields such as marketing, social sciences and medicine is questionnaires: answers in such questionnaires are noisy measures of target unobserved features. While comprehensive surveys help to better estimate the latent variables of interest, aiming at a high number of questions comes at a price: refusal to participate in surveys can go up, as well as the rate of missing data; quality of answers can decline; costs associated with applying such questionnaires can also increase. In this paper, we cast the problem of refining existing models for questionnaire data as follows: solve a constrained optimization problem of preserving the maximum amount of information found in a latent variable model using only a subset of existing questions. The goal is to find an optimal subset of a given size. For that, we first define an information theoretical measure for quantifying the quality of a reduced questionnaire. Three different approximate inference methods are introduced to solve this problem. Comparisons against a simple but powerful heuristic are presented.

Policy gradient is a useful model-free reinforcement learning approach, but it tends to suffer from instability of gradient estimates. In this paper, we analyze and improve the stability of policy gradient methods. We first prove that the variance ofgradient estimates in the PGPE (policy gradients with parameter-based exploration) method is smaller than that of the classical REINFORCE method under a mild assumption. We then derive the optimal baseline for PGPE, which contributes to further reducing the variance. We also theoretically show that PGPE with the optimal baseline is more preferable than REINFORCE with the optimal baseline in terms of the variance of gradient estimates. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of the improved PGPE method through experiments.