We introduce the Gamma-Exponential Process (GEP), a prior over a large family ofcontinuous time stochastic processes. A hierarchical version of this prior (HGEP; the Hierarchical GEP) yields a useful model for analyzing complex time series. Models based on HGEPs display many attractive properties: conjugacy, exchangeability and closed-form predictive distribution for the waiting times, and exact Gibbs updates for the time scale parameters. After establishing these properties, weshow how posterior inference can be carried efficiently using Particle MCMC methods [1]. This yields a MCMC algorithm that can resample entire sequences atomicallywhile avoiding the complications of introducing slice and stick auxiliary variables of the beam sampler [2]. We applied our model to the problem of estimating the disease progression in multiple sclerosis [3], and to RNA evolutionary modeling[4]. In both domains, we found that our model outperformed the standard rate matrix estimation approach.

A sizable literature has focused on the problem of estimating a low-dimensional feature space capturing a neuron's stimulus sensitivity. However, comparatively little work has addressed the problem of estimating the nonlinear function from feature space to a neuron's output spike rate. Here, we use a Gaussian process (GP) prior over the infinite-dimensional space of nonlinear functions to obtain Bayesian estimates of the "nonlinearity" in the linear-nonlinear-Poisson (LNP) encoding model. This offers flexibility, robustness, and computational tractability compared to traditional methods (e.g., parametric forms, histograms, cubic splines). Most importantly, we develop a framework for optimal experimental design based on uncertainty sampling. This involves adaptively selecting stimuli to characterize the nonlinearity with as little experimental data as possible, and relies on a method for rapidly updating hyperparameters using the Laplace approximation. We apply these methods to data from color-tuned neurons in macaque V1. We estimate nonlinearities in the 3D space of cone contrasts, which reveal that V1 combines cone inputs in a highly nonlinear manner. With simulated experiments, we show that optimal design substantially reduces the amount of data required to estimate this nonlinear combination rule.

This work considers the problem of learning the structure of multivariate linear tree models, which include a variety of directed tree graphical models with continuous, discrete, and mixed latent variables such as linear-Gaussian models, hidden Markov models, Gaussian mixture models, and Markov evolutionary trees. The setting is one where we only have samples from certain observed variables in the tree, and our goal is to estimate the tree structure (i.e., the graph of how the underlying hidden variables are connected to each other and to the observed variables). We propose the Spectral Recursive Grouping algorithm, an efficient and simple bottom-up procedure for recovering the tree structure from independent samples of the observed variables. Our finite sample size bounds for exact recovery of the tree structure reveal certain natural dependencies on underlying statistical and structural properties of the underlying joint distribution. Furthermore, our sample complexity guarantees have no explicit dependence on the dimensionality of the observed variables, making the algorithm applicable to many high-dimensional settings. At the heart of our algorithm is a spectral quartet test for determining the relative topology of a quartet of variables from second-order statistics.

In this paper, we address the problem of learning the structure of a pairwise graphical model from samples in a high-dimensional setting. Our first main result studies the sparsistency, or consistency in sparsity pattern recovery, properties of a forward-backward greedy algorithm as applied to general statistical models. As a special case, we then apply this algorithm to learn the structure of a discrete graphical model via neighborhood estimation. As a corollary of our general result, we derive sufficient conditions on the number of samples n, the maximum node-degree d and the problem size p, as well as other conditions on the model parameters, so that the algorithm recovers all the edges with high probability. Our result guarantees graph selection for samples scaling as n = Omega(d log(p)), in contrast to existing convex-optimization based algorithms that require a sample complexity of Omega(d^2 log(p)). Further, the greedy algorithm only requires a restricted strong convexity condition which is typically milder than irrepresentability assumptions. We corroborate these results using numerical simulations at the end.

Factored Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (Dec-POMDPs) form a powerful framework for multiagent planning under uncertainty, but optimal solutions require a rigid history-based policy representation. In this paper we allow inter-agent communication which turns the problem in a centralized Multiagent POMDP (MPOMDP). We map belief distributions over state factors to an agent's local actions by exploiting structure in the joint MPOMDP policy. The key point is that when sparse dependencies between the agents' decisions exist, often the belief over its local state factors is sufficient for an agent to unequivocally identify the optimal action, and communication can be avoided. We formalize these notions by casting the problem into convex optimization form, and present experimental results illustrating the savings in communication that we can obtain.

Skill discovery algorithms in reinforcement learning typically identify single states or regions in state space that correspond to task-specific subgoals. However, such methods do not directly address the question of how many distinct skills are appropriate for solving the tasks that the agent faces. This can be highly inefficient when many identified subgoals correspond to the same underlying skill, but are all used individually as skill goals. Furthermore, skills created in this manner are often only transferable to tasks that share identical state spaces, since corresponding subgoals across tasks are not merged into a single skill goal. We show that these problems can be overcome by clustering subgoal data defined in an agent-space and using the resulting clusters as templates for skill termination conditions. Clustering via a Dirichlet process mixture model is used to discover a minimal, sufficient collection of portable skills.

With the advent of crowdsourcing services it has become quite cheap and reasonably effective to get a dataset labeled by multiple annotators in a short amount of time. Various methods have been proposed to estimate the consensus labels by correcting for the bias of annotators with different kinds of expertise. Often we have low quality annotators or spammers--annotators who assign labels randomly (e.g., without actually looking at the instance). Spammers can make the cost of acquiring labels very expensive and can potentially degrade the quality of the consensus labels. In this paper we formalize the notion of a spammer and define a score which can be used to rank the annotators---with the spammers having a score close to zero and the good annotators having a high score close to one.

Biased labelers are a systemic problem in crowdsourcing, and a comprehensive toolbox for handling their responses is still being developed. A typical crowdsourcing application can be divided into three steps: data collection, data curation, and learning. At present these steps are often treated separately. We present Bayesian Bias Mitigation for Crowdsourcing (BBMC), a Bayesian model to unify all three. Most data curation methods account for the {\it effects} of labeler bias by modeling all labels as coming from a single latent truth. Our model captures the {\it sources} of bias by describing labelers as influenced by shared random effects. This approach can account for more complex bias patterns that arise in ambiguous or hard labeling tasks and allows us to merge data curation and learning into a single computation. Active learning integrates data collection with learning, but is commonly considered infeasible with Gibbs sampling inference. We propose a general approximation strategy for Markov chains to efficiently quantify the effect of a perturbation on the stationary distribution and specialize this approach to active learning. Experiments show BBMC to outperform many common heuristics.

We propose a new sparse Bayesian model for multi-task regression and classification. The model is able to capture correlations between tasks, or more specifically a low-rank approximation of the covariance matrix, while being sparse in the features. We introduce a general family of group sparsity inducing priors based on matrix-variate Gaussian scale mixtures. We show the amount of sparsity can be learnt from the data by combining an approximate inference approach with type II maximum likelihood estimation of the hyperparameters. Empirical evaluations on data sets from biology and vision demonstrate the applicability of the model, where on both regression and classification tasks it achieves competitive predictive performance compared to previously proposed methods.

A nonparametric kernel-based method for realizing Bayes' rule is proposed, based on kernel representations of probabilities in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. The prior and conditional probabilities are expressed as empirical kernel mean and covariance operators, respectively, and the kernel mean of the posterior distribution is computed in the form of a weighted sample. The kernel Bayes' rule can be applied to a wide variety of Bayesian inference problems: we demonstrate Bayesian computation without likelihood, and filtering with a nonparametric state-space model. A consistency rate for the posterior estimate is established.