We combine Bayesian networks (BNs) and structural reliability methods (SRMs) to create a new computational framework, termed enhanced Bayesian network (eBN), for reliability and risk analysis of engineering structures and infrastructure. BNs are efficient in representing and evaluating complex probabilistic dependence structures, as present in infrastructure and structural systems, and they facilitate Bayesian updating of the model when new information becomes available. On the other hand, SRMs enable accurate assessment of probabilities of rare events represented by computationally demanding, physically-based models. By combining the two methods, the eBN framework provides a unified and powerful tool for efficiently computing probabilities of rare events in complex structural and infrastructure systems in which information evolves in time. Strategies for modeling and efficiently analyzing the eBN are described by way of several conceptual examples. The companion paper applies the eBN methodology to example structural and infrastructure systems.

The theoretically elegant yet broadly functional capability of graphical models shows intriguing potential to span in a uniform manner perception, cognition and action; and thus to ultimately yield simpler yet more powerful integrated architectures for intelligent robots and other comparable systems. This position paper explores this potential, with initial support from an effort underway to develop a graphical architecture that is based on factor graphs (with piecewise continuous functions).

Computational social science, as with all complex adaptive systems sciences, involves a great amount of uncertainty on several fronts, including intrinsic arbitrariness such as that due to path dependence, disagreement on social theory and how to capture it in software, input data of different credibility that does not exactly match the requirements of software because it was gathered for another purpose, and inexactly matching translations between models that were designed for different purposes than the study at hand. This paper presents a method of formally tracking that uncertainty, keeping the data input parameters proportionate with logical and probabilistic constraints, and capturing proportionate dynamics of the output ordered by the decision points of policy change, for the purpose of risk-based analysis. Once ordered this way, the data can be compared to other data similarly expressed, whether that data is from simulation excursions or from the real world, for objective comparison and distance scoring at the level of dynamic patterns as opposed to single outcome validation. This method enables wargame adjudicators to be run out with data gleaned from the wargame, enables data to be repurposed for both training and testing set, and facilitates objective validation scoring through soft matching. Artificial intelligence tools used in the method include probabilistic ontologies with crisp and Bayesian inference, game trees that are multiplayer non-zero sum and decision point based rather than turn-based, and Markov processes to represent the dynamic data and align the models for objective comparison.

There are an increasing number of applications of security games. One of the key challenges for this field going forward is to address the problem of model uncertainty and the robustness of the game-theoretic solutions. Most existing methods for dealing with payoff uncertainty are Bayesian methods which are NP-hard and have difficulty scaling to very large problems. In this work we consider an alternative approach based on interval uncertainty. For a variant of security games with interval uncertainty we introduce a polynomial-time approximation algorithm that can compute very accurate solutions within a given error bound.

The concept of trust in web services describes the degree of belief that a client or a group of clients have over services functioning satisfactorily and providing the expected results. As services are usually invoked in composition with other services, judging on their trustworthiness gets more complicated, yet computing their trustworthy becomes a desired goal. Existing work only take the trust of each individual service into account, regardless of the context of the composition. They also do not use the data gained from other clients for selecting the most trustful composition and preparing for possible service failures. In our work we first introduce the concept of Combination Reputation, which reflects the commonness and popularity of invoaction of a pair or group of services among other clients. By interpreting the trust and reputation values as subjective probability, we define the Component Trust of the services in the composition, which reflects the degree of belief the client has over components of services performing satisfactorily. We model the web service composition as a Bayesian network and integrate the above trust values into the network and show how to compute the global trust of the composition.

Constructing robust controllers to perform tasks in large, continually changing worlds is a difficult problem. A long-lived agent placed in such a world could be required to perform a variety of different tasks. For this to be possible, the agent needs to be able to abstract its experiences in a reusable way. This paper addresses the problem of online multitask decision making in such complex worlds, with inherent incompleteness in models of change. A fully general version of this problem is intractable but many interesting domains are rendered manageable by the fact that all instances of tasks may be described using a finite set of qualitatively meaningful contexts. We suggest an approach to solving the multitask problem through decomposing the domain into a set of capabilities based on these local contexts. Capabilities resemble the options of hierarchical reinforcement learning, but provide robust behaviours capable of achieving some subgoal with the associated guarantee of achieving at least a particular aspiration level of performance. This enables using these policies within a planning framework, and they become a level of abstraction which factorises an otherwise large domain into task-independent sub-problems, with well-defined interfaces between the perception, control and planning problems. This is demonstrated in a stochastic navigation example, where an agent reaches different goals in different world instances without relearning.

The importance of diversity in reasoning and learning to successfully address complex problems is examined. We discuss an approach by which a multiagent framework with decentralized control mechanisms provides diverse perspectives and hypotheses addressing a class of complex problems. We introduce the SNARE multiagent system. SNARE performs tasks to gain situational awareness of situations of interest in a Social Media Space. It applies a decentralized control mechanism for each agent; this mechanism enables an agent to interact with other agents to reason and learn. This approach facilitates dynamic agent organizations that adapt the topologies of interactions between agents based on the problem context.

In many instances, information on engineering systems can be obtained through measurements, monitoring or direct observations of system performances and can be used to update the system reliability estimate. In structural reliability analysis, such information is expressed either by inequalities (e.g. for the observation that no defect is present) or by equalities (e.g. for quantitative measurements of system characteristics). When information Z is of the equality type, the a-priori probability of Z is zero and most structural reliability methods (SRM) are not directly applicable to the computation of the updated reliability. Hitherto, the computation of the reliability of engineering systems conditional on equality information was performed through first- and second order approximations. In this paper, it is shown how equality information can be transformed into inequality information, which enables reliability updating by solving a standard structural system reliability problem. This approach enables the use of any SRM, including those based on simulation, for reliability updating with equality information. It is demonstrated on three numerical examples, including an application to fatigue reliability.

We propose a solution to the image deconvolution problem where the convolution kernel or point spread function (PSF) is assumed to be only partially known. Small perturbations generated from the model are exploited to produce a few principal components explaining the PSF uncertainty in a high dimensional space. Unlike recent developments on blind deconvolution of natural images, we assume the image is sparse in the pixel basis, a natural sparsity arising in magnetic resonance force microscopy (MRFM). Our approach adopts a Bayesian Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampling framework. The performance of our Bayesian semi-blind algorithm for sparse images is superior to previously proposed semi-blind algorithms such as the alternating minimization (AM) algorithm and blind algorithms developed for natural images. We illustrate our myopic algorithm on real MRFM tobacco virus data.

We address the problems of multi-domain and single-domain regression based on distinct and unpaired labeled training sets for each of the domains and a large unlabeled training set from all domains. We formulate these problems as a Bayesian estimation with partial knowledge of statistical relations. We propose a worst-case design strategy and study the resulting estimators. Our analysis explicitly accounts for the cardinality of the labeled sets and includes the special cases in which one of the labeled sets is very large or, in the other extreme, completely missing. We demonstrate our estimators in the context of removing expressions from facial images and in the context of audio-visual word recognition, and provide comparisons to several recently proposed multi-modal learning algorithms.