Approximate dynamic programming is a popular method for solving large Markov decision processes. This paper describes a new class of approximate dynamic programming (ADP) methods- distributionally robust ADP-that address the curse of dimensionality by minimizing a pessimistic bound on the policy loss. This approach turns ADP into an optimization problem, for which we derive new mathematical program formulations and analyze its properties. DRADP improves on the theoretical guarantees of existing ADP methods-it guarantees convergence and L1 norm based error bounds. The empirical evaluation of DRADP shows that the theoretical guarantees translate well into good performance on benchmark problems.

We develop the Latent Multi-group Membership Graph (LMMG) model, a model of networks with rich node feature structure. In the LMMG model, each node belongs to multiple groups and each latent group models the occurrence of links as well as the node feature structure. The LMMG can be used to summarize the network structure, to predict links between the nodes, and to predict missing features of a node. We derive efficient inference and learning algorithms and evaluate the predictive performance of the LMMG on several social and document network datasets.

In this paper, we outline a system for evaluating the performance of scientific research across a number of outcome metrics (e.g. publications, sales, new hires). Our system is designed to classify research performance into a number of metrics, evaluate each metric’s performance using only data on other metrics, and to cast predictions of future performance by metric. This study shows how data mining techniques can be used to provide a predictive analytic approach to the management of resources for scientific research.

Conversational case-based reasoning systems use an interactive dialog to retrieve stored cases. Normally the ordering of questions in this dialog is chosen based only on their discriminativeness. However, because the user may not be able to answer all questions, even highly discriminative questions are not guaranteed to provide information. This paper presents a customization method CCBR systems can apply to adjust entropy-based discriminativeness considerations by predictions of user ability to answer questions. The method uses a naive Bayesian classifier to classify users into user groups based on the questions they answer, applies information from group profiles to predict which future questions they are likely to be able to answer, and selects the next questions to ask based on a combination of information gain and response likelihood. The method was evaluated for a mix of simulated user groups, each associated with particular probabilities for answering questions about each case indexing feature, in four sample domains. For simulated users with varying abilities to answer particular questions, results showed improvement in dialog length over a non-customized entropy-based approach in all test domains.

The current paradigm in student modeling has continued to show the power of its simplifying assumption of knowledge as a binary and monotonically increasing construct, the value of which directly causes the outcome of student answers to questions. Recent efforts have focused on optimizing the prediction accuracy of responses to questions using student models. Incorporating individual student parameter interactions has been an interpretable and principled approach which has improved the performance of this task, as demonstrated by its application in the 2010 KDD Cup challenge on Educational Data. Performance prediction, however, can have limited practical utility. The greatest utility of such student models can be their ability to model the tutor and the attributes of the tutor which are causing learning. Harnessing the same simplifying assumption of learning used in student modeling, we can turn this model on its head to effectively tease out the tutor attributes causing learning and begin to optimize the tutor model to benefit the student model.

When analysing social media conversations, in search of the public opinion about an unfolding event that is be- ing discussed in real-time (e.g., presidential debates, major speeches, etc.), it is important to distinguish between two groups of participants: opinion-makers and opinion-holders. To address this problem, we propose a supervised machine-learning approach, which uses inexpensively acquired labeled data from monothematic Twitter accounts to learn a binary classifier for the labels “political account” (opinion-makers) and “non-political account” (opinion-holders). While the classifier has a 83% accuracy on individual tweets, when applied to the last 200 tweets from accounts of a set of 1000 Twitter users, it classifies accounts with a 97% accuracy. This high accuracy derives from our decision to incorporate information about classifier probability into the classification. Our work demonstrates that machine learning algorithms can play a critical role in improving the quality of social media analytics and understanding, whose importance is increasing as social media adoption becomes widespread.

Maritime threat detection is a challenging problem because maritime environments can involve a complex combination of concurrent vessel activities, and only a small fraction of these may be irregular, suspicious, or threatening. Previous work on this task has been limited to analyses of single vessels using simple rule-based models that alert watchstanders when a proximity threshold is breached. We claim that Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) can be used to more effectively model complex maritime situations. In this paper, we study the performance of PGMs for detecting (small boat) maritime attacks. We describe three types of PGMs that vary in their representational expressiveness and evaluate them on a threat recognition task using track data obtained from force protection naval exercises involving unmanned sea surface vehicles. We found that the best-performing PGMs can outperform the deployed rule-based approach on these tasks, though some PGMs require substantial engineering and are computationally expensive.

Markov logic networks have been successfully applied to many problems in AI. However, the computational complexity of the inference procedures has limited their application. Previous work in lifted inference, lazy inference and cutting plane inference has identified cases where the entire ground network need not be constructed. These approaches are specific to particular inference procedures, and apply well only to certain classes of problems. We introduce a method of focused grounding that can use either general purpose or domain specific heuristics to produce only the most relevant ground formulas. Though a solution to the focused grounding is not, in general, a solution to the complete grounding, we show empirically that the smaller search space of a focused grounding makes it easier to locate a good solution. We evaluate focused grounding on two diverse domains, joint entity resolution and abductive plan recognition. We show improved results and decreased computation cost for the entity resolution domain relative to a complete grounding. Focused grounding in abductive plan recognition produces state of the art results in a domain where complete grounding proved intractable.

Are the words that people use indicative of their personality type preferences? In this paper, it is hypothesized that word-usage is not independent of personality type, as measured by the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) personality assessment tool. In-class writing samples were taken from 40 graduate students along with the MBTI. The experiment utilizes naïve Bayes classifiers and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) in an attempt to guess an individual’s personality type based on their word-choice. Classification is also attempted using emotional, social, cognitive, and psychological dimensions elicited by the analysis software, Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC). The classifiers are evaluated with 40 distinct trials (leave-one-out cross validation), and parameters are chosen using leave-one-out cross validation of each trial’s training set. The experiment showed that the naïve Bayes classifiers (word-based and LIWC-based) outperformed the SVMs when guessing Sensing-Intuition (S-N) and Thinking-Feeling (T-F).

This work discusses the problem of sparse signal recovery when there is correlation among the values of non-zero entries. We examine intra-vector correlation in the context of the block sparse model and inter-vector correlation in the context of the multiple measurement vector model, as well as their combination. Algorithms based on the sparse Bayesian learning are presented and the benefits of incorporating correlation at the algorithm level are discussed. The impact of correlation on the limits of support recovery is also discussed highlighting the different impact intra-vector and inter-vector correlations have on such limits.