The paper introduces AND/OR importance sampling for probabilistic graphical models. In contrast to importance sampling, AND/OR importance sampling caches samples in the AND/OR space and then extracts a new sample mean from the stored samples. We prove that AND/OR importance sampling may have lower variance than importance sampling; thereby providing a theoretical justification for preferring it over importance sampling. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that AND/OR importance sampling is far more accurate than importance sampling in many cases.

It is well-known that inference in graphical models is hard in the worst case, but tractable for models with bounded treewidth. We ask whether treewidth is the only structural criterion of the underlying graph that enables tractable inference. In other words, is there some class of structures with unbounded treewidth in which inference is tractable? Subject to a combinatorial hypothesis due to Robertson et al. (1994), we show that low treewidth is indeed the only structural restriction that can ensure tractability. Thus, even for the "best case" graph structure, there is no inference algorithm with complexity polynomial in the treewidth.

Recent research leverages results from the continuous-armed bandit literature to create a reinforcement-learning algorithm for continuous state and action spaces. Initially proposed in a theoretical setting, we provide the first examination of the empirical properties of the algorithm. Through experimentation, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this planning method when coupled with exploration and model learning and show that, in addition to its formal guarantees, the approach is very competitive with other continuous-action reinforcement learners.

This paper presents a decision-theoretic planning approach for probabilistic environments where the agent's goal is to win, which we model as maximizing the probability of being above a given reward threshold. In competitive domains, second is as good as last, and it is often desirable to take risks if one is in danger of losing, even if the risk does not pay off very often. Our algorithm maximizes the probability of being above a particular reward threshold by dynamically switching between a suite of policies, each of which encodes a different level of risk. This method does not explicitly encode time or reward into the state space, and decides when to switch between policies during each execution step. We compare a risk-neutral policy to switching among different risk-sensitive policies, and show that our approach improves the agent's probability of winning.

In contrast to previous competitions, where the problems were goal-based, the 2011 International Probabilistic Planning Competition (IPPC-2011) emphasized finite-horizon reward maximization problems with large branching factors. These MDPs modeled more realistic planning scenarios and presented challenges to the previous state-of-the-art planners (e.g., those from IPPC-2008), which were primarily based on domain determinization — a technique more suited to goal-oriented MDPs with small branching factors. Moreover, large branching factors render the existing implementations of RTDP- and LAO-style algorithms inefficient as well. In this paper we present GLUTTON, our planner at IPPC-2011 that performed well on these challenging MDPs. The main algorithm used by GLUTTON is LR2TDP, an LRTDP-based optimal algorithm for finite-horizon problems centered around the novel idea of reverse iterative deepening. We detail LR2TDP itself as well as a series of optimizations included in GLUTTON that help LR2TDP achieve competitive performance on difficult problems with large branching factors -- subsampling the transition function, separating out natural dynamics, caching transition function samples, and others. Experiments show that GLUTTON and PROST, the IPPC-2011 winner, have complementary strengths, with GLUTTON demonstrating superior performance on problems with few high-reward terminal states.

Agricultural research has been profited by technical advances such as automation, data mining. Today, data mining is used in a vast areas and many off-the-shelf data mining system products and domain specific data mining application soft wares are available, but data mining in agricultural soil datasets is a relatively a young research field. The large amounts of data that are nowadays virtually harvested along with the crops have to be analyzed and should be used to their full extent. This research aims at analysis of soil dataset using data mining techniques. It focuses on classification of soil using various algorithms available. Another important purpose is to predict untested attributes using regression technique, and implementation of automated soil sample classification.

The stochastic block model is a powerful tool for inferring community structure from network topology. However, it predicts a Poisson degree distribution within each community, while most real-world networks have a heavy-tailed degree distribution. The degree-corrected block model can accommodate arbitrary degree distributions within communities. But since it takes the vertex degrees as parameters rather than generating them, it cannot use them to help it classify the vertices, and its natural generalization to directed graphs cannot even use the orientations of the edges. In this paper, we present variants of the block model with the best of both worlds: they can use vertex degrees and edge orientations in the classification process, while tolerating heavy-tailed degree distributions within communities. We show that for some networks, including synthetic networks and networks of word adjacencies in English text, these new block models achieve a higher accuracy than either standard or degree-corrected block models.

The paper proposes a numerically stable recursive algorithm for the exact computation of the linear-chain conditional random field gradient. It operates as a forward algorithm over the log-domain expectation semiring and has the purpose of enhancing memory efficiency when applied to long observation sequences. Unlike the traditional algorithm based on the forward-backward recursions, the memory complexity of our algorithm does not depend on the sequence length. The experiments on real data show that it can be useful for the problems which deal with long sequences.

Over the past decades, statisticians and machine-learning researchers have developed literally thousands of new tools for the reduction of high-dimensional data in order to identify the variables most responsible for a particular trait. These tools have applications in a plethora of settings, including data analysis in the fields of business, education, forensics, and biology (such as microarray, proteomics, brain imaging), to name a few. In the present work, we focus our investigation on the limitations and potential misuses of certain tools in the analysis of the benchmark colon cancer data (2,000 variables; Alon et al., 1999) and the prostate cancer data (6,033 variables; Efron, 2010, 2008). Our analysis demonstrates that models that produce 100% accuracy measures often select different sets of genes and cannot stand the scrutiny of parameter estimates and model stability. Furthermore, we created a host of simulation datasets and "artificial diseases" to evaluate the reliability of commonly used statistical and data mining tools. We found that certain widely used models can classify the data with 100% accuracy without using any of the variables responsible for the disease. With moderate sample size and suitable pre-screening, stochastic gradient boosting will be shown to be a superior model for gene selection and variable screening from high-dimensional datasets.

We present a new algorithm for exactly solving decision making problems represented as influence diagrams. We do not require the usual assumptions of no forgetting and regularity; this allows us to solve problems with simultaneous decisions and limited information. The algorithm is empirically shown to outperform a state-of-the-art algorithm on randomly generated problems of up to 150 variables and 10^64 solutions. We show that these problems are NP-hard even if the underlying graph structure of the problem has low treewidth and the variables take on a bounded number of states, and that they admit no provably good approximation if variables can take on an arbitrary number of states.