We introduce a new family of estimators for unnormalized statistical models. Our family of estimators is parameterized by two nonlinear functions and uses a single sample from an auxiliary distribution, generalizing Maximum Likelihood Monte Carlo estimation of Geyer and Thompson (1992). The family is such that we can estimate the partition function like any other parameter in the model. The estimation is done by optimizing an algebraically simple, well defined objective function, which allows for the use of dedicated optimization methods. We establish consistency of the estimator family and give an expression for the asymptotic covariance matrix, which enables us to further analyze the influence of the nonlinearities and the auxiliary density on estimation performance. Some estimators in our family are particularly stable for a wide range of auxiliary densities. Interestingly, a specific choice of the nonlinearity establishes a connection between density estimation and classification by nonlinear logistic regression. Finally, the optimal amount of auxiliary samples relative to the given amount of the data is considered from the perspective of computational efficiency.

Bayesian structure learning is the NP-hard problem of discovering a Bayesian network that optimally represents a given set of training data. In this paper we study the computational worst-case complexity of exact Bayesian structure learning under graph theoretic restrictions on the super-structure. The super-structure (a concept introduced by Perrier, Imoto, and Miyano, JMLR 2008) is an undirected graph that contains as subgraphs the skeletons of solution networks. Our results apply to several variants of score-based Bayesian structure learning where the score of a network decomposes into local scores of its nodes. Results: We show that exact Bayesian structure learning can be carried out in non-uniform polynomial time if the super-structure has bounded treewidth and in linear time if in addition the super-structure has bounded maximum degree. We complement this with a number of hardness results. We show that both restrictions (treewidth and degree) are essential and cannot be dropped without loosing uniform polynomial time tractability (subject to a complexity-theoretic assumption). Furthermore, we show that the restrictions remain essential if we do not search for a globally optimal network but we aim to improve a given network by means of at most k arc additions, arc deletions, or arc reversals (k-neighborhood local search).

Most conventional Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms aim to optimize decision-making rules in terms of the expected returns. However, especially for risk management purposes, other risk-sensitive criteria such as the value-at-risk or the expected shortfall are sometimes preferred in real applications. Here, we describe a parametric method for estimating density of the returns, which allows us to handle various criteria in a unified manner. We first extend the Bellman equation for the conditional expected return to cover a conditional probability density of the returns. Then we derive an extension of the TD-learning algorithm for estimating the return densities in an unknown environment. As test instances, several parametric density estimation algorithms are presented for the Gaussian, Laplace, and skewed Laplace distributions. We show that these algorithms lead to risk-sensitive as well as robust RL paradigms through numerical experiments.

We present a Dirichlet process mixture model over discrete incomplete rankings and study two Gibbs sampling inference techniques for estimating posterior clusterings. The first approach uses a slice sampling subcomponent for estimating cluster parameters. The second approach marginalizes out several cluster parameters by taking advantage of approximations to the conditional posteriors. We empirically demonstrate (1) the effectiveness of this approximation for improving convergence, (2) the benefits of the Dirichlet process model over alternative clustering techniques for ranked data, and (3) the applicability of the approach to exploring large realworld ranking datasets.

Over the past two decades, several consistent procedures have been designed to infer causal conclusions from observational data. We prove that if the true causal network might be an arbitrary, linear Gaussian network or a discrete Bayes network, then every unambiguous causal conclusion produced by a consistent method from non-experimental data is subject to reversal as the sample size increases any finite number of times. That result, called the causal flipping theorem, extends prior results to the effect that causal discovery cannot be reliable on a given sample size. We argue that since repeated flipping of causal conclusions is unavoidable in principle for consistent methods, the best possible discovery methods are consistent methods that retract their earlier conclusions no more than necessary. A series of simulations of various methods across a wide range of sample sizes illustrates concretely both the theorem and the principle of comparing methods in terms of retractions.

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the traditional HMM. However, in many settings the HDP-HMM's strict Markovian constraints are undesirable, particularly if we wish to learn or encode non-geometric state durations. We can extend the HDP-HMM to capture such structure by drawing upon explicit-duration semi-Markovianity, which has been developed in the parametric setting to allow construction of highly interpretable models that admit natural prior information on state durations. In this paper we introduce the explicitduration HDP-HSMM and develop posterior sampling algorithms for efficient inference in both the direct-assignment and weak-limit approximation settings. We demonstrate the utility of the model and our inference methods on synthetic data as well as experiments on a speaker diarization problem and an example of learning the patterns in Morse code.

We consider learning continuous probabilistic graphical models in the face of missing data. For non-Gaussian models, learning the parameters and structure of such models depends on our ability to perform efficient inference, and can be prohibitive even for relatively modest domains. Recently, we introduced the Copula Bayesian Network (CBN) density model - a flexible framework that captures complex high-dimensional dependency structures while offering direct control over the univariate marginals, leading to improved generalization. In this work we show that the CBN model also offers significant computational advantages when training data is partially observed. Concretely, we leverage on the specialized form of the model to derive a computationally amenable learning objective that is a lower bound on the log-likelihood function. Importantly, our energy-like bound circumvents the need for costly inference of an auxiliary distribution, thus facilitating practical learning of highdimensional densities. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach for learning the structure and parameters of a CBN model for two reallife continuous domains.

Hierarchical structure is ubiquitous in data across many domains. There are many hierarchical clustering methods, frequently used by domain experts, which strive to discover this structure. However, most of these methods limit discoverable hierarchies to those with binary branching structure. This limitation, while computationally convenient, is often undesirable. In this paper we explore a Bayesian hierarchical clustering algorithm that can produce trees with arbitrary branching structure at each node, known as rose trees. We interpret these trees as mixtures over partitions of a data set, and use a computationally efficient, greedy agglomerative algorithm to find the rose trees which have high marginal likelihood given the data. Lastly, we perform experiments which demonstrate that rose trees are better models of data than the typical binary trees returned by other hierarchical clustering algorithms.

Topic models have proven to be a useful tool for discovering latent structures in document collections. However, most document collections often come as temporal streams and thus several aspects of the latent structure such as the number of topics, the topics' distribution and popularity are time-evolving. Several models exist that model the evolution of some but not all of the above aspects. In this paper we introduce infinite dynamic topic models, iDTM, that can accommodate the evolution of all the aforementioned aspects. Our model assumes that documents are organized into epochs, where the documents within each epoch are exchangeable but the order between the documents is maintained across epochs. iDTM allows for unbounded number of topics: topics can die or be born at any epoch, and the representation of each topic can evolve according to a Markovian dynamics. We use iDTM to analyze the birth and evolution of topics in the NIPS community and evaluated the efficacy of our model on both simulated and real datasets with favorable outcome.

In recent years, a rich variety of shrinkage priors have been proposed that have great promise in addressing massive regression problems. In general, these new priors can be expressed as scale mixtures of normals, but have more complex forms and better properties than traditional Cauchy and double exponential priors. We first propose a new class of normal scale mixtures through a novel generalized beta distribution that encompasses many interesting priors as special cases. This encompassing framework should prove useful in comparing competing priors, considering properties and revealing close connections. We then develop a class of variational Bayes approximations through the new hierarchy presented that will scale more efficiently to the types of truly massive data sets that are now encountered routinely.