Computing the probability of evidence even with known error bounds is NP-hard. In this paper we address this hard problem by settling on an easier problem. We propose an approximation which provides high confidence lower bounds on probability of evidence but does not have any guarantees in terms of relative or absolute error. Our proposed approximation is a randomized importance sampling scheme that uses the Markov inequality. However, a straight-forward application of the Markov inequality may lead to poor lower bounds. We therefore propose several heuristic measures to improve its performance in practice. Empirical evaluation of our scheme with state-of- the-art lower bounding schemes reveals the promise of our approach.

We propose a new Monte Carlo algorithm for complex discrete distributions. The algorithm is motivated by the N-Fold Way, which is an ingenious event-driven MCMC sampler that avoids rejection moves at any specific state. The N-Fold Way can however get "trapped" in cycles. We surmount this problem by modifying the sampling process. This correction does introduce bias, but the bias is subsequently corrected with a carefully engineered importance sampler.

Model-based Bayesian Reinforcement Learning (BRL) allows a found formalization of the problem of acting optimally while facing an unknown environment, i.e., avoiding the exploration-exploitation dilemma. However, algorithms explicitly addressing BRL suffer from such a combinatorial explosion that a large body of work relies on heuristic algorithms. This paper introduces BOLT, a simple and (almost) deterministic heuristic algorithm for BRL which is optimistic about the transition function. We analyze BOLT's sample complexity, and show that under certain parameters, the algorithm is near-optimal in the Bayesian sense with high probability. Then, experimental results highlight the key differences of this method compared to previous work.

This paper addresses the issue of model selection for hidden Markov models (HMMs). We generalize factorized asymptotic Bayesian inference (FAB), which has been recently developed for model selection on independent hidden variables (i.e., mixture models), for time-dependent hidden variables. As with FAB in mixture models, FAB for HMMs is derived as an iterative lower bound maximization algorithm of a factorized information criterion (FIC). It inherits, from FAB for mixture models, several desirable properties for learning HMMs, such as asymptotic consistency of FIC with marginal log-likelihood, a shrinkage effect for hidden state selection, monotonic increase of the lower FIC bound through the iterative optimization. Further, it does not have a tunable hyper-parameter, and thus its model selection process can be fully automated. Experimental results shows that FAB outperforms states-of-the-art variational Bayesian HMM and non-parametric Bayesian HMM in terms of model selection accuracy and computational efficiency.

Variational methods are widely used for approximate posterior inference. However, their use is typically limited to families of distributions that enjoy particular conjugacy properties. To circumvent this limitation, we propose a family of variational approximations inspired by nonparametric kernel density estimation. The locations of these kernels and their bandwidth are treated as variational parameters and optimized to improve an approximate lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the data. Using multiple kernels allows the approximation to capture multiple modes of the posterior, unlike most other variational approximations. We demonstrate the efficacy of the nonparametric approximation with a hierarchical logistic regression model and a nonlinear matrix factorization model. We obtain predictive performance as good as or better than more specialized variational methods and sample-based approximations. The method is easy to apply to more general graphical models for which standard variational methods are difficult to derive.

We present a max-margin nonparametric latent feature relational model, which unites the ideas of max-margin learning and Bayesian nonparametrics to discover discriminative latent features for link prediction and automatically infer the unknown latent social dimension. By minimizing a hinge-loss using the linear expectation operator, we can perform posterior inference efficiently without dealing with a highly nonlinear link likelihood function; by using a fully-Bayesian formulation, we can avoid tuning regularization constants. Experimental results on real datasets appear to demonstrate the benefits inherited from max-margin learning and fully-Bayesian nonparametric inference.

An efficient way to learn deep density models that have many layers of latent variables is to learn one layer at a time using a model that has only one layer of latent variables. After learning each layer, samples from the posterior distributions for that layer are used as training data for learning the next layer. This approach is commonly used with Restricted Boltzmann Machines, which are undirected graphical models with a single hidden layer, but it can also be used with Mixtures of Factor Analysers (MFAs) which are directed graphical models. In this paper, we present a greedy layer-wise learning algorithm for Deep Mixtures of Factor Analysers (DMFAs). Even though a DMFA can be converted to an equivalent shallow MFA by multiplying together the factor loading matrices at different levels, learning and inference are much more efficient in a DMFA and the sharing of each lower-level factor loading matrix by many different higher level MFAs prevents overfitting. We demonstrate empirically that DM-FAs learn better density models than both MFAs and two types of Restricted Boltzmann Machine on a wide variety of datasets.

We study the convergence rate of stochastic optimization of exact (NP-hard) objectives, for which only biased estimates of the gradient are available. We motivate this problem in the context of learning the structure and parameters of Ising models. We first provide a convergence-rate analysis of deterministic errors for forward-backward splitting (FBS). We then extend our analysis to biased stochastic errors, by first characterizing a family of samplers and providing a high probability bound that allows understanding not only FBS, but also proximal gradient (PG) methods. We derive some interesting conclusions: FBS requires only a logarithmically increasing number of random samples in order to converge (although at a very low rate); the required number of random samples is the same for the deterministic and the biased stochastic setting for FBS and basic PG; accelerated PG is not guaranteed to converge in the biased stochastic setting.

We present a robust multiple manifolds structure learning (RMMSL) scheme to robustly estimate data structures under the multiple low intrinsic dimensional manifolds assumption. In the local learning stage, RMMSL efficiently estimates local tangent space by weighted low-rank matrix factorization. In the global learning stage, we propose a robust manifold clustering method based on local structure learning results. The proposed clustering method is designed to get the flattest manifolds clusters by introducing a novel curved-level similarity function. Our approach is evaluated and compared to state-of-the-art methods on synthetic data, handwritten digit images, human motion capture data and motorbike videos. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, which yields higher clustering accuracy, and produces promising results for challenging tasks of human motion segmentation and motion flow learning from videos.

In this paper we present a fully Bayesian latent variable model which exploits conditional nonlinear (in)-dependence structures to learn an efficient latent representation. The latent space is factorized to represent shared and private information from multiple views of the data. In contrast to previous approaches, we introduce a relaxation to the discrete segmentation and allow for a "softly" shared latent space. Further, Bayesian techniques allow us to automatically estimate the dimensionality of the latent spaces. The model is capable of capturing structure underlying extremely high dimensional spaces. This is illustrated by modelling unprocessed images with tenths of thousands of pixels. This also allows us to directly generate novel images from the trained model by sampling from the discovered latent spaces. We also demonstrate the model by prediction of human pose in an ambiguous setting. Our Bayesian framework allows us to perform disambiguation in a principled manner by including latent space priors which incorporate the dynamic nature of the data.