Previous work on sensitivity analysis in Bayesian networks has focused on single parameters, where the goal is to understand the sensitivity of queries to single parameter changes, and to identify single parameter changes that would enforce a certain query constraint. In this paper, we expand the work to multiple parameters which may be in the CPT of a single variable, or the CPTs of multiple variables. Not only do we identify the solution space of multiple parameter changes that would be needed to enforce a query constraint, but we also show how to find the optimal solution, that is, the one which disturbs the current probability distribution the least (with respect to a specific measure of disturbance). We characterize the computational complexity of our new techniques and discuss their applications to developing and debugging Bayesian networks, and to the problem of reasoning about the value (reliability) of new information.

For many real-life Bayesian networks, common knowledge dictates that the output established for the main variable of interest increases with higher values for the observable variables. We define two concepts of monotonicity to capture this type of knowledge. We say that a network is isotone in distribution if the probability distribution computed for the output variable given specific observations is stochastically dominated by any such distribution given higher-ordered observations; a network is isotone in mode if a probability distribution given higher observations has a higher mode. We show that establishing whether a network exhibits any of these properties of monotonicity is coNPPP-complete in general, and remains coNP-complete for polytrees. We present an approximate algorithm for deciding whether a network is monotone in distribution and illustrate its application to a real-life network in oncology.

Modeling dynamical systems, both for control purposes and to make predictions about their behavior, is ubiquitous in science and engineering. Predictive state representations (PSRs) are a recently introduced class of models for discrete-time dynamical systems. The key idea behind PSRs and the closely related OOMs (Jaeger's observable operator models) is to represent the state of the system as a set of predictions of observable outcomes of experiments one can do in the system. This makes PSRs rather different from history-based models such as nth-order Markov models and hidden-state-based models such as HMMs and POMDPs. We introduce an interesting construct, the systemdynamics matrix, and show how PSRs can be derived simply from it. We also use this construct to show formally that PSRs are more general than both nth-order Markov models and HMMs/POMDPs. Finally, we discuss the main difference between PSRs and OOMs and conclude with directions for future work.

We describe an approach for exploiting structure in Markov Decision Processes with continuous state variables. At each step of the dynamic programming, the state space is dynamically partitioned into regions where the value function is the same throughout the region. We first describe the algorithm for piecewise constant representations. We then extend it to piecewise linear representations, using techniques from POMDPs to represent and reason about linear surfaces efficiently. We show that for complex, structured problems, our approach exploits the natural structure so that optimal solutions can be computed efficiently.

The paper introduces mixed networks, a new framework for expressing and reasoning with probabilistic and deterministic information. The framework combines belief networks with constraint networks, defining the semantics and graphical representation. We also introduce the AND/OR search space for graphical models, and develop a new linear space search algorithm. This provides the basis for understanding the benefits of processing the constraint information separately, resulting in the pruning of the search space. When the constraint part is tractable or has a small number of solutions, using the mixed representation can be exponentially more effective than using pure belief networks which odel constraints as conditional probability tables.

We present a major improvement to the incremental pruning algorithm for solving partially observable Markov decision processes. Our technique targets the cross-sum step of the dynamic programming (DP) update, a key source of complexity in POMDP algorithms. Instead of reasoning about the whole belief space when pruning the cross-sums, our algorithm divides the belief space into smaller regions and performs independent pruning in each region. We evaluate the benefits of the new technique both analytically and experimentally, and show that it produces very significant performance gains. The results contribute to the scalability of POMDP algorithms to domains that cannot be handled by the best existing techniques.

As real-world Bayesian networks continue to grow larger and more complex, it is important to investigate the possibilities for improving the performance of existing algorithms of probabilistic inference. Motivated by examples, we investigate the dependency of the performance of Lazy propagation on the message computation algorithm. We show how Symbolic Probabilistic Inference (SPI) and Arc-Reversal (AR) can be used for computation of clique to clique messages in the addition to the traditional use of Variable Elimination (VE). In addition, the paper resents the results of an empirical evaluation of the performance of Lazy propagation using VE, SPI, and AR as the message computation algorithm. The results of the empirical evaluation show that for most networks, the performance of inference did not depend on the choice of message computation algorithm, but for some randomly generated networks the choice had an impact on both space and time performance. In the cases where the choice had an impact, AR produced the best results.

This paper investigates a representation language with flexibility inspired by probabilistic logic and compactness inspired by relational Bayesian networks. The goal is to handle propositional and first-order constructs together with precise, imprecise, indeterminate and qualitative probabilistic assessments. The paper shows how this can be achieved through the theory of credal networks. New exact and approximate inference algorithms based on multilinear programming and iterated/loopy propagation of interval probabilities are presented; their superior performance, compared to existing ones, is shown empirically.

Although many real-world stochastic planning problems are more naturally formulated by hybrid models with both discrete and continuous variables, current state-of-the-art methods cannot adequately address these problems. We present the first framework that can exploit problem structure for modeling and solving hybrid problems efficiently. We formulate these problems as hybrid Markov decision processes (MDPs with continuous and discrete state and action variables), which we assume can be represented in a factored way using a hybrid dynamic Bayesian network (hybrid DBN). This formulation also allows us to apply our methods to collaborative multiagent settings. We present a new linear program approximation method that exploits the structure of the hybrid MDP and lets us compute approximate value functions more efficiently. In particular, we describe a new factored discretization of continuous variables that avoids the exponential blow-up of traditional approaches. We provide theoretical bounds on the quality of such an approximation and on its scale-up potential. We support our theoretical arguments with experiments on a set of control problems with up to 28-dimensional continuous state space and 22-dimensional action space.

We consider the problem of estimating the distribution underlying an observed sample of data. Instead of maximum likelihood, which maximizes the probability of the ob served values, we propose a different estimate, the high-profile distribution, which maximizes the probability of the observed profile the number of symbols appearing any given number of times. We determine the high-profile distribution of several data samples, establish some of its general properties, and show that when the number of distinct symbols observed is small compared to the data size, the high-profile and maximum-likelihood distributions are roughly the same, but when the number of symbols is large, the distributions differ, and high-profile better explains the data.