This article describes different models based on Bayesian networks RB modeling expertise in the diagnosis of brain tumors. Indeed, they are well adapted to the representation of the uncertainty in the process of diagnosis of these tumors. In our work, we first tested several structures derived from the Bayesian network reasoning performed by doctors on the one hand and structures generated automatically on the other. This step aims to find the best structure that increases diagnostic accuracy. The machine learning algorithms relate MWST-EM algorithms, SEM and SEM + T. To estimate the parameters of the Bayesian network from a database incomplete, we have proposed an extension of the EM algorithm by adding a priori knowledge in the form of the thresholds calculated by the first phase of the algorithm RBE . The very encouraging results obtained are discussed at the end of the paper

Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction information of features or trained classifiers, where the fusion result is the contract price on the possible outcomes. The market can be trained online by updating the participants' budgets using training examples. Inspired by the real prediction markets, the equations that govern the market are derived from simple and reasonable assumptions. Efficient numerical algorithms are presented for solving these equations. The obtained artificial prediction market is shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. It generalizes linear aggregation, existent in boosting and random forest, as well as logistic regression and some kernel methods. Furthermore, the market mechanism allows the aggregation of specialized classifiers that participate only on specific instances. Experimental comparisons show that the artificial prediction markets often outperform random forest and implicit online learning on synthetic data and real UCI datasets. Moreover, an extensive evaluation for pelvic and abdominal lymph node detection in CT data shows that the prediction market improves adaboost's detection rate from 79.6% to 81.2% at 3 false positives/volume.

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) (Baum and Eagon, 1967; Rabiner, 1989) are the workhorse statistical model for discrete time series, with widely diverse applications including automatic speech recognition, natural language processing (NLP), and genomic sequence modeling. In this model, a discrete hidden state evolves according to some Markovian dynamics, and observations at a particular time depend only on the hidden state at that time. The learning problem is to estimate the model only with observation samples from the underlying distribution. Thus far, the predominant learning algorithms have been local search heuristics, such as the Baum-Welch / EM algorithm (Baum et al., 1970; Dempster et al., 1977). It is not surprising that practical algorithms have resorted to heuristics, as the general learning problem has been shown to be hard under cryptographic assumptions (Terwijn, 2002). Fortunately, the hardness results are for HMMs that seem divorced from those that we are likely to encounter in practical applications. The situation is in many ways analogous to learning mixture distributions with samples from the underlying distribution. There, the general problem is also believed to be hard. However, much recent progress has been made when certain separation assumptions are made with respect to the component mixture distributions (e.g.

The restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) is a flexible tool for modeling complex data, however there have been significant computational difficulties in using RBMs to model high-dimensional multinomial observations. In natural language processing applications, words are naturally modeled by K-ary discrete distributions, where K is determined by the vocabulary size and can easily be in the hundreds of thousands. The conventional approach to training RBMs on word observations is limited because it requires sampling the states of K-way softmax visible units during block Gibbs updates, an operation that takes time linear in K. In this work, we address this issue by employing a more general class of Markov chain Monte Carlo operators on the visible units, yielding updates with computational complexity independent of K. We demonstrate the success of our approach by training RBMs on hundreds of millions of word n-grams using larger vocabularies than previously feasible and using the learned features to improve performance on chunking and sentiment classification tasks, achieving state-of-the-art results on the latter.

One of the basic tasks for Bayesian networks (BNs) is that of learning a network structure from data. The BN-learning problem is NP-hard, so the standard solution is heuristic search. Many approaches have been proposed for this task, but only a very small number outperform the baseline of greedy hill-climbing with tabu lists; moreover, many of the proposed algorithms are quite complex and hard to implement. In this paper, we propose a very simple and easy-to-implement method for addressing this task. Our approach is based on the well-known fact that the best network (of bounded in-degree) consistent with a given node ordering can be found very efficiently. We therefore propose a search not over the space of structures, but over the space of orderings, selecting for each ordering the best network consistent with it. This search space is much smaller, makes more global search steps, has a lower branching factor, and avoids costly acyclicity checks. We present results for this algorithm on both synthetic and real data sets, evaluating both the score of the network found and in the running time. We show that ordering-based search outperforms the standard baseline, and is competitive with recent algorithms that are much harder to implement.

We propose a multi-wing harmonium model for mining multimedia data that extends and improves on earlier models based on two-layer random fields, which capture bidirectional dependencies between hidden topic aspects and observed inputs. This model can be viewed as an undirected counterpart of the two-layer directed models such as LDA for similar tasks, but bears significant difference in inference/learning cost tradeoffs, latent topic representations, and topic mixing mechanisms. In particular, our model facilitates efficient inference and robust topic mixing, and potentially provides high flexibilities in modeling the latent topic spaces. A contrastive divergence and a variational algorithm are derived for learning. We specialized our model to a dual-wing harmonium for captioned images, incorporating a multivariate Poisson for word-counts and a multivariate Gaussian for color histogram. We present empirical results on the applications of this model to classification, retrieval and image annotation on news video collections, and we report an extensive comparison with various extant models.

We consider the estimation of the policy gradient in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) with a special class of structured policies that are finite-state controllers. We show that the gradient estimation can be done in the Actor-Critic framework, by making the critic compute a "value" function that does not depend on the states of POMDP. This function is the conditional mean of the true value function that depends on the states. We show that the critic can be implemented using temporal difference (TD) methods with linear function approximations, and the analytical results on TD and Actor-Critic can be transfered to this case. Although Actor-Critic algorithms have been used extensively in Markov decision processes (MDP), up to now they have not been proposed for POMDP as an alternative to the earlier proposal GPOMDP algorithm, an actor-only method. Furthermore, we show that the same idea applies to semi-Markov problems with a subset of finite-state controllers.

We introduce a novel latent grouping model for predicting the relevance of a new document to a user. The model assumes a latent group structure for both users and documents. We compared the model against a state-of-the-art method, the User Rating Profile model, where only users have a latent group structure. We estimate both models by Gibbs sampling. The new method predicts relevance more accurately for new documents that have few known ratings. The reason is that generalization over documents then becomes necessary and hence the twoway grouping is profitable.

For many large undirected models that arise in real-world applications, exact maximumlikelihood training is intractable, because it requires computing marginal distributions of the model. Conditional training is even more difficult, because the partition function depends not only on the parameters, but also on the observed input, requiring repeated inference over each training example. An appealing idea for such models is to independently train a local undirected classifier over each clique, afterwards combining the learned weights into a single global model. In this paper, we show that this piecewise method can be justified as minimizing a new family of upper bounds on the log partition function. On three natural-language data sets, piecewise training is more accurate than pseudolikelihood, and often performs comparably to global training using belief propagation.

In this paper, we present an algorithm for minimizing the difference between two submodular functions using a variational framework which is based on (an extension of) the concave-convex procedure [17]. Because several commonly used metrics in machine learning, like mutual information and conditional mutual information, are submodular, the problem of minimizing the difference of two submodular problems arises naturally in many machine learning applications. Two such applications are learning discriminatively structured graphical models and feature selection under computational complexity constraints. A commonly used metric for measuring discriminative capacity is the EAR measure which is the difference between two conditional mutual information terms. Feature selection taking complexity considerations into account also fall into this framework because both the information that a set of features provide and the cost of computing and using the features can be modeled as submodular functions. This problem is NP-hard, and we give a polynomial time heuristic for it. We also present results on synthetic data to show that classifiers based on discriminative graphical models using this algorithm can significantly outperform classifiers based on generative graphical models.