Modeling dynamical systems, both for control purposes and to make predictions about their behavior, is ubiquitous in science and engineering. Predictive state representations (PSRs) are a recently introduced class of models for discrete-time dynamical systems. The key idea behind PSRs and the closely related OOMs (Jaeger's observable operator models) is to represent the state of the system as a set of predictions of observable outcomes of experiments one can do in the system. This makes PSRs rather different from history-based models such as nth-order Markov models and hidden-state-based models such as HMMs and POMDPs. We introduce an interesting construct, the systemdynamics matrix, and show how PSRs can be derived simply from it. We also use this construct to show formally that PSRs are more general than both nth-order Markov models and HMMs/POMDPs. Finally, we discuss the main difference between PSRs and OOMs and conclude with directions for future work.

We present a novel POMDP planning algorithm called heuristic search value iteration (HSVI). HSVI is an anytime algorithm that returns a policy and a provable bound on its regret with respect to the optimal policy. HSVI gets its power by combining two well-known techniques: attention-focusing search heuristics and piecewise linear convex representations of the value function. HSVI's soundness and convergence have been proven. On some benchmark problems from the literature, HSVI displays speedups of greater than 100 with respect to other state-of-the-art POMDP value iteration algorithms. We also apply HSVI to a new rover exploration problem 10 times larger than most POMDP problems in the literature.

For many real-life Bayesian networks, common knowledge dictates that the output established for the main variable of interest increases with higher values for the observable variables. We define two concepts of monotonicity to capture this type of knowledge. We say that a network is isotone in distribution if the probability distribution computed for the output variable given specific observations is stochastically dominated by any such distribution given higher-ordered observations; a network is isotone in mode if a probability distribution given higher observations has a higher mode. We show that establishing whether a network exhibits any of these properties of monotonicity is coNPPP-complete in general, and remains coNP-complete for polytrees. We present an approximate algorithm for deciding whether a network is monotone in distribution and illustrate its application to a real-life network in oncology.

In this paper, we propose a new lower approximation scheme for POMDP with discounted and average cost criterion. The approximating functions are determined by their values at a finite number of belief points, and can be computed efficiently using value iteration algorithms for finite-state MDP. While for discounted problems several lower approximation schemes have been proposed earlier, ours seems the first of its kind for average cost problems. We focus primarily on the average cost case, and we show that the corresponding approximation can be computed efficiently using multi-chain algorithms for finite-state MDP. We give a preliminary analysis showing that regardless of the existence of the optimal average cost J in the POMDP, the approximation obtained is a lower bound of the liminf optimal average cost function, and can also be used to calculate an upper bound on the limsup optimal average cost function, as well as bounds on the cost of executing the stationary policy associated with the approximation. Weshow the convergence of the cost approximation, when the optimal average cost is constant and the optimal differential cost is continuous.

Maximum a Posteriori assignment (MAP) is the problem of finding the most probable instantiation of a set of variables given the partial evidence on the other variables in a Bayesian network. MAP has been shown to be a NP-hard problem [22], even for constrained networks, such as polytrees [18]. Hence, previous approaches often fail to yield any results for MAP problems in large complex Bayesian networks. To address this problem, we propose AnnealedMAP algorithm, a simulated annealing-based MAP algorithm. The AnnealedMAP algorithm simulates a non-homogeneous Markov chain whose invariant function is a probability density that concentrates itself on the modes of the target density. We tested this algorithm on several real Bayesian networks. The results show that, while maintaining good quality of the MAP solutions, the AnnealedMAP algorithm is also able to solve many problems that are beyond the reach of previous approaches.

Although many real-world stochastic planning problems are more naturally formulated by hybrid models with both discrete and continuous variables, current state-of-the-art methods cannot adequately address these problems. We present the first framework that can exploit problem structure for modeling and solving hybrid problems efficiently. We formulate these problems as hybrid Markov decision processes (MDPs with continuous and discrete state and action variables), which we assume can be represented in a factored way using a hybrid dynamic Bayesian network (hybrid DBN). This formulation also allows us to apply our methods to collaborative multiagent settings. We present a new linear program approximation method that exploits the structure of the hybrid MDP and lets us compute approximate value functions more efficiently. In particular, we describe a new factored discretization of continuous variables that avoids the exponential blow-up of traditional approaches. We provide theoretical bounds on the quality of such an approximation and on its scale-up potential. We support our theoretical arguments with experiments on a set of control problems with up to 28-dimensional continuous state space and 22-dimensional action space.

As real-world Bayesian networks continue to grow larger and more complex, it is important to investigate the possibilities for improving the performance of existing algorithms of probabilistic inference. Motivated by examples, we investigate the dependency of the performance of Lazy propagation on the message computation algorithm. We show how Symbolic Probabilistic Inference (SPI) and Arc-Reversal (AR) can be used for computation of clique to clique messages in the addition to the traditional use of Variable Elimination (VE). In addition, the paper presents the results of an empirical evaluation of the performance of Lazy propagation using VE, SPI, and AR as the message computation algorithm. The results of the empirical evaluation show that for most networks, the performance of inference did not depend on the choice of message computation algorithm, but for some randomly generated networks the choice had an impact on both space and time performance. In the cases where the choice had an impact, AR produced the best results.

Based on a recent development in the area of error control coding, we introduce the notion of convolutional factor graphs (CFGs) as a new class of probabilistic graphical models. In this context, the conventional factor graphs are referred to as multiplicative factor graphs (MFGs). This paper shows that CFGs are natural models for probability functions when summation of independent latent random variables is involved. In particular, CFGs capture a large class of linear models, where the linearity is in the sense that the observed variables are obtained as a linear ransformation of the latent variables taking arbitrary distributions. We use Gaussian models and independent factor models as examples to emonstrate the use of CFGs. The requirement of a linear transformation between latent variables (with certain independence restriction) and the bserved variables, to an extent, limits the modelling flexibility of CFGs. This structural restriction however provides a powerful analytic tool to the framework of CFGs; that is, upon taking the Fourier transform of the function represented by the CFG, the resulting function is represented by a FG with identical structure. This Fourier transform duality allows inference problems on a CFG to be solved on the corresponding dual MFG.

We introduce a probabilistic formalism subsuming Markov random fields of bounded tree width and probabilistic context free grammars. Our models are based on a representation of Boolean formulas that we call case-factor diagrams (CFDs). CFDs are similar to binary decision diagrams (BDDs) but are concise for circuits of bounded tree width (unlike BDDs) and can concisely represent the set of parse trees over a given string under a given context free grammar (also unlike BDDs). A probabilistic model consists of a CFD defining a feasible set of Boolean assignments and a weight (or cost) for each individual Boolean variable. We give an insideoutside algorithm for simultaneously computing the marginal of each Boolean variable, and a Viterbi algorithm for finding the mininum cost variable assignment. Both algorithms run in time proportional to the size of the CFD.

Previous work on sensitivity analysis in Bayesian networks has focused on single parameters, where the goal is to understand the sensitivity of queries to single parameter changes, and to identify single parameter changes that would enforce a certain query constraint. In this paper, we expand the work to multiple parameters which may be in the CPT of a single variable, or the CPTs of multiple variables. Not only do we identify the solution space of multiple parameter changes that would be needed to enforce a query constraint, but we also show how to find the optimal solution, that is, the one which disturbs the current probability distribution the least (with respect to a specific measure of disturbance). We characterize the computational complexity of our new techniques and discuss their applications to developing and debugging Bayesian networks, and to the problem of reasoning about the value (reliability) of new information.