We present a multi-task learning approach to jointly estimate the means of multiple independent data sets. The proposed multi-task averaging (MTA) algorithm results in a convex combination of the single-task averages. We derive the optimal amount of regularization, and show that it can be effectively estimated. Simulations and real data experiments demonstrate that MTA both maximum likelihood and James-Stein estimators, and that our approach to estimating the amount of regularization rivals cross-validation in performance but is more computationally efficient.

We introduce a new prior for use in Nonparametric Bayesian Hierarchical Clustering. The prior is constructed by marginalizing out the time information of Kingman’s coalescent, providing a prior over tree structures which we call the Time-Marginalized Coalescent (TMC). This allows for models which factorize the tree structure and times, providing two benefits: more flexible priors may be constructed and more efficient Gibbs type inference can be used. We demonstrate this on an example model for density estimation and show the TMC achieves competitive experimental results.

Sum-product networks are a new deep architecture that can perform fast, exact inference onhigh-treewidth models. Only generative methods for training SPNs have been proposed to date. In this paper, we present the first discriminative training algorithms for SPNs, combining the high accuracy of the former with the representational power and tractability of the latter. We show that the class of tractable discriminative SPNs is broader than the class of tractable generative ones, and propose an efficient backpropagation-style algorithm for computing the gradient of the conditional log likelihood. Standard gradient descent suffers from the diffusion problem, but networks with many layers can be learned reliably using "hard"gradient descent, where marginal inference is replaced by MPE inference (i.e.,inferring the most probable state of the non-evidence variables). The resulting updates have a simple and intuitive form. We test discriminative SPNs on standard image classification tasks. We obtain the best results to date on the CIFAR-10 dataset, using fewer features than prior methods with an SPN architecture thatlearns local image structure discriminatively. We also report the highest published test accuracy on STL-10 even though we only use the labeled portion of the dataset.

In this paper, we consider the problem of clustering data points into lowdimensional subspacesin the presence of outliers. We pose the problem using a density estimation formulation with an associated generative model. Based on this probability model, we first develop an iterative expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm andthen derive its global solution. In addition, we develop two Bayesian methods based on variational Bayesian (VB) approximation, which are capable of automatic dimensionality selection. While the first method is based on an alternating optimizationscheme for all unknowns, the second method makes use of recent results in VB matrix factorization leading to fast and effective estimation. Both methods are extended to handle sparse outliers for robustness and can handle missingvalues. Experimental results suggest that proposed methods are very effective in subspace clustering and identifying outliers.

We present a Bayesian nonparametric model that discovers implicit social structure from interaction time-series data. Social groups are often formed implicitly, through actions among members of groups. Yet many models of social networks use explicitly declared relationships to infer social structure. We consider a particular class of Hawkes processes, a doubly stochastic point process, that is able to model reciprocity between groups of individuals. We then extend the Infinite Relational Model by using these reciprocating Hawkes processes to parameterise its edges, making events associated with edges co-dependent through time. Our model outperforms general, unstructured Hawkes processes as well as structured Poisson process-based models at predicting verbal and email turn-taking, and military conflicts among nations.

Clustering is a key component in data analysis toolbox. Despite its importance, scalable algorithms often eschew rich statistical models in favor of simpler descriptions such as $k$-means clustering. In this paper we present a sampler, capable of estimating mixtures of exponential families. At its heart lies a novel proposal distribution using random projections to achieve high throughput in generating proposals, which is crucial for clustering models with large numbers of clusters.

Rich and complex time-series data, such as those generated from engineering systems, financialmarkets, videos, or neural recordings are now a common feature of modern data analysis. Explaining the phenomena underlying these diverse data sets requires flexible and accurate models. In this paper, we promote Gaussian process dynamical systems as a rich model class that is appropriate for such an analysis. We present a new approximate message-passing algorithm for Bayesian state estimation and inference in Gaussian process dynamical systems, a nonparametric probabilisticgeneralization of commonly used state-space models. We derive our message-passing algorithm using Expectation Propagation and provide a unifying perspective on message passing in general state-space models. We show that existing Gaussian filters and smoothers appear as special cases within our inference framework, and that these existing approaches can be improved upon using iterated message passing. Using both synthetic and real-world data, we demonstrate that iterated message passing can improve inference in a wide range of tasks in Bayesian state estimation, thus leading to improved predictions and more effective decision making.

Sparse linear (or generalized linear) models combine a standard likelihood function with a sparse prior on the unknown coefficients. These priors can conveniently be expressed as a maximization over zero-mean Gaussians with different variance hyperparameters. Standard MAP estimation (Type I) involves maximizing over both the hyperparameters and coefficients, while an empirical Bayesian alternative (Type II) first marginalizes the coefficients and then maximizes over the hyperparameters, leading to a tractable posterior approximation. The underlying cost functions can be related via a dual-space framework from Wipf et al. (2011), which allows both the Type I or Type II objectives to be expressed in either coefficient or hyperparmeter space. This perspective is useful because some analyses or extensions are more conducive to development in one space or the other. Herein we consider the estimation of a trade-off parameter balancing sparsity and data fit. As this parameter is effectively a variance, natural estimators exist by assessing the problem in hyperparameter (variance) space, transitioning natural ideas from Type II to solve what is much less intuitive for Type I. In contrast, for analyses of update rules and sparsity properties of local and global solutions, as well as extensions to more general likelihood models, we can leverage coefficient-space techniques developed for Type I and apply them to Type II. For example, this allows us to prove that Type II-inspired techniques can be successful recovering sparse coefficients when unfavorable restricted isometry properties (RIP) lead to failure of popular L1 reconstructions. It also facilitates the analysis of Type II when non-Gaussian likelihood models lead to intractable integrations.

Partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a powerful model for real-world sequential decision-making problems. In recent years, point- based value iteration methods have proven to be extremely effective techniques for finding (approximately) optimal dynamic programming solutions to POMDPs when an initial set of belief states is known. However, no point-based work has provided exact point-based backups for both continuous state and observation spaces, which we tackle in this paper. Our key insight is that while there may be an infinite number of possible observations, there are only a finite number of observation partitionings that are relevant for optimal decision-making when a finite, fixed set of reachable belief states is known. To this end, we make two important contributions: (1) we show how previous exact symbolic dynamic pro- gramming solutions for continuous state MDPs can be generalized to continu- ous state POMDPs with discrete observations, and (2) we show how this solution can be further extended via recently developed symbolic methods to continuous state and observations to derive the minimal relevant observation partitioning for potentially correlated, multivariate observation spaces. We demonstrate proof-of- concept results on uni- and multi-variate state and observation steam plant control.

Warped Gaussian processes (WGP) [1] model output observations in regression tasks as a parametric nonlinear transformation of a Gaussian process (GP). The use of this nonlinear transformation, which is included as part of the probabilistic model, was shown to enhance performance by providing a better prior model on several data sets. In order to learn its parameters, maximum likelihood was used. In this work we show that it is possible to use a non-parametric nonlinear transformation in WGP and variationally integrate it out. The resulting Bayesian WGP is then able to work in scenarios in which the maximum likelihood WGP failed: Low data regime, data with censored values, classification, etc. We demonstrate the superior performance of Bayesian warped GPs on several real data sets.