The National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) database contains a large amount of information, regarding the way of life, medical conditions, depression, etc., of a representative sample of the U.S. population. In the present paper, we are interested in seeking the hidden causes behind the suicide attempts, for which we propose to model the subjects using a nonparametric latent model based on the Indian Buffet Process (IBP). Due to the nature of the data, we need to adapt the observation model for discrete random variables. We propose a generative model in which the observations are drawn from a multinomial-logit distribution given the IBP matrix. The implementation of an efficient Gibbs sampler is accomplished using the Laplace approximation, which allows us to integrate out the weighting factors of the multinomial-logit likelihood model. Finally, the experiments over the NESARC database show that our model properly captures some of the hidden causes that model suicide attempts.

A fundamental problem in the analysis of structured relational data like graphs, networks, databases, and matrices is to extract a summary of the common structure underlyingrelations between individual entities. Relational data are typically encoded in the form of arrays; invariance to the ordering of rows and columns corresponds to exchangeable arrays. Results in probability theory due to Aldous, Hoover and Kallenberg show that exchangeable arrays can be represented in terms of a random measurable function which constitutes the natural model parameter in a Bayesian model. We obtain a flexible yet simple Bayesian nonparametric model by placing a Gaussian process prior on the parameter function. Efficient inference utilises elliptical slice sampling combined with a random sparse approximation to the Gaussian process. We demonstrate applications of the model to network data and clarify its relation to models in the literature, several of which emerge as special cases.

Active learning can substantially improve the yield of neurophysiology experiments by adaptively selecting stimuli to probe a neuron's receptive field (RF) in real time. Bayesian active learning methods maintain a posterior distribution over the RF, and select stimuli to maximally reduce posterior entropy on each time step. However, existing methods tend to rely on simple Gaussian priors, and do not exploit uncertainty at the level of hyperparameters when determining an optimal stimulus. This uncertainty can play a substantial role in RF characterization, particularly when RFs are smooth, sparse, or local in space and time. In this paper, we describe a novel framework for active learning under hierarchical, conditionally Gaussian priors. Our algorithm uses sequential Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling (''particle filtering'' with MCMC) over hyperparameters to construct a mixture-of-Gaussians representation of the RF posterior, and selects optimal stimuli using an approximate infomax criterion. The core elements of this algorithm are parallelizable, making it computationally efficient for real-time experiments. We apply our algorithm to simulated and real neural data, and show that it can provide highly accurate receptive field estimates from very limited data, even with a small number of hyperparameter samples.

A new methodology is developed for joint analysis of a matrix and accompanying documents, with the documents associated with the matrix rows/columns. The documents are modeled with a focused topic model, inferring interpretable latent binary features for each document. A new matrix decomposition is developed, with latent binary features associated with the rows/columns, and with imposition of a low-rank constraint. The matrix decomposition and topic model are coupled by sharing the latent binary feature vectors associated with each. The model is applied to roll-call data, with the associated documents defined by the legislation. Advantages of the proposed model are demonstrated for prediction of votes on a new piece of legislation, based only on the observed text of legislation. The coupling of the text and legislation is also shown to yield insight into the properties of the matrix decomposition for roll-call data.

In this paper, we consider the $\ell_1$ regularized sparse inverse covariance matrix estimation problem with a very large number of variables. Even in the face of this high dimensionality, and with limited number of samples, recent work has shown this estimator to have strong statistical guarantees in recovering the true structure of the sparse inverse covariance matrix, or alternatively the underlying graph structure of the corresponding Gaussian Markov Random Field. Our proposed algorithm divides the problem into smaller sub-problems, and uses the solutions of the sub-problems to build a good approximation for the original problem. We derive a bound on the distance of the approximate solution to the true solution. Based on this bound, we propose a clustering algorithm that attempts to minimize this bound, and in practice, is able to find effective partitions of the variables. We further use the approximate solution, i.e., solution resulting from solving the sub-problems, as an initial point to solve the original problem, and achieve a much faster computational procedure. As an example, a recent state-of-the-art method, QUIC requires 10 hours to solve a problem (with 10,000 nodes) that arises from a climate application, while our proposed algorithm, Divide and Conquer QUIC (DC-QUIC) only requires one hour to solve the problem.

We consider infinite-horizon stationary $\gamma$-discounted Markov Decision Processes, for which it is known that there exists a stationary optimal policy. Using Value and Policy Iteration with some error $\epsilon$ at each iteration, it is well-known that one can compute stationary policies that are $\frac{2\gamma{(1-\gamma)^2}\epsilon$-optimal. After arguing that this guarantee is tight, we develop variations of Value and Policy Iteration for computing non-stationary policies that can be up to $\frac{2\gamma}{1-\gamma}\epsilon$-optimal, which constitutes a significant improvement in the usual situation when $\gamma$ is close to $1$. Surprisingly, this shows that the problem of ``computing near-optimal non-stationary policies'' is much simpler than that of ``computing near-optimal stationary policies''.

We develop convergent minimization algorithms for Bethe variational approximations which explicitly constrain marginal estimates to families of valid distributions. While existing message passing algorithms define fixed point iterations corresponding to stationary points of the Bethe free energy, their greedy dynamics do not distinguish between local minima and maxima, and can fail to converge. For continuous estimation problems, this instability is linked to the creation of invalid marginal estimates, such as Gaussians with negative variance. Conversely, our approach leverages multiplier methods with well-understood convergence properties, and uses bound projection methods to ensure that marginal approximations are valid at all iterations. We derive general algorithms for discrete and Gaussian pairwise Markov random fields, showing improvements over standard loopy belief propagation. We also apply our method to a hybrid model with both discrete and continuous variables, showing improvements over expectation propagation.

An effective strategy to exploit the supervising side information for discovering predictive topic representations is to impose discriminative constraints induced by such information on the posterior distributions under a topic model. This strategy has been adopted by a number of supervised topic models, such as MedLDA, which employs max-margin posterior constraints. However, unlike the likelihood-based supervised topic models, of which posterior inference can be carried out using the Bayes' rule, the max-margin posterior constraints have made Monte Carlo methods infeasible or at least not directly applicable, thereby limited the choice of inference algorithms to be based on variational approximation with strict mean field assumptions. In this paper, we develop two efficient Monte Carlo methods under much weaker assumptions for max-margin supervised topic models based on an importance sampler and a collapsed Gibbs sampler, respectively, in a convex dual formulation. We report thorough experimental results that compare our approach favorably against existing alternatives in both accuracy and efficiency.

Probabilistic latent variable models are one of the cornerstones of machine learning. They offer a convenient and coherent way to specify prior distributions over unobserved structure in data, so that these unknown properties can be inferred via posterior inference. Such models are useful for exploratory analysis and visualization, for building density models of data, and for providing features that can be used for later discriminative tasks. A significant limitation of these models, however, is that draws from the prior are often highly redundant due to i.i.d. assumptions on internal parameters. For example, there is no preference in the prior of a mixture model to make components non-overlapping, or in topic model to ensure that co-ocurring words only appear in a small number of topics. In this work, we revisit these independence assumptions for probabilistic latent variable models, replacing the underlying i.i.d.\ prior with a determinantal point process (DPP). The DPP allows us to specify a preference for diversity in our latent variables using a positive definite kernel function. Using a kernel between probability distributions, we are able to define a DPP on probability measures. We show how to perform MAP inference with DPP priors in latent Dirichlet allocation and in mixture models, leading to better intuition for the latent variable representation and quantitatively improved unsupervised feature extraction, without compromising the generative aspects of the model.

Discrete mixtures are used routinely in broad sweeping applications ranging from unsupervised settings to fully supervised multi-task learning. Indeed, finite mixtures and infinite mixtures, relying on Dirichlet processes and modifications, have become a standard tool. One important issue that arises in using discrete mixtures is low separation in the components; in particular, different components can be introduced that are very similar and hence redundant. Such redundancy leads to too many clusters that are too similar, degrading performance in unsupervised learning and leading to computational problems and an unnecessarily complex model in supervised settings. Redundancy can arise in the absence of a penalty on components placed close together even when a Bayesian approach is used to learn the number of components. To solve this problem, we propose a novel prior that generates components from a repulsive process, automatically penalizing redundant components. We characterize this repulsive prior theoretically and propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm for posterior computation. The methods are illustrated using synthetic examples and an iris data set.