Electricity price forecasting has become a critical tool for decision-making in energy markets, particularly as the increasing penetration of renewable energy introduces greater volatility and uncertainty. Historically, research in this field has been dominated by point forecasting methods, which provide single-value predictions but fail to quantify uncertainty. However, as power markets evolve due to renewable integration, smart grids, and regulatory changes, the need for probabilistic forecasting has become more pronounced, offering a more comprehensive approach to risk assessment and market participation. This paper presents a review of probabilistic forecasting methods, tracing their evolution from Bayesian and distribution based approaches, through quantile regression techniques, to recent developments in conformal prediction. Particular emphasis is placed on advancements in probabilistic forecasting, including validity-focused methods which address key limitations in uncertainty estimation. Additionally, this review extends beyond the Day-Ahead Market to include the Intra-Day and Balancing Markets, where forecasting challenges are intensified by higher temporal granularity and real-time operational constraints. We examine state of the art methodologies, key evaluation metrics, and ongoing challenges, such as forecast validity, model selection, and the absence of standardised benchmarks, providing researchers and practitioners with a comprehensive and timely resource for navigating the complexities of modern electricity markets.

Explicit latent variable models provide a flexible yet powerful framework for data synthesis, enabling controlled manipulation of generative factors. With latent variables drawn from a tractable probability density function that can be further constrained, these models enable continuous and semantically rich exploration of the output space by navigating their latent spaces. Structured latent representations are typically obtained through the joint minimization of regularization loss functions. In variational information bottleneck models, reconstruction loss and Kullback-Leibler Divergence (KLD) are often linearly combined with an auxiliary Attribute-Regularization (AR) loss. However, balancing KLD and AR turns out to be a very delicate matter. When KLD dominates over AR, generative models tend to lack controllability; when AR dominates over KLD, the stochastic encoder is encouraged to violate the standard normal prior. We explore this trade-off in the context of symbolic music generation with explicit control over continuous musical attributes. We show that existing approaches struggle to jointly minimize both regularization objectives, whereas suitable attribute transformations can help achieve both controllability and regularization of the target latent dimensions.

This dissertation explores the application of multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) for handling deadlocks in intralogistics systems that rely on autonomous mobile robots (AMRs). AMRs enhance operational flexibility but also increase the risk of deadlocks, which degrade system throughput and reliability. Existing approaches often neglect deadlock handling in the planning phase and rely on rigid control rules that cannot adapt to dynamic operational conditions. To address these shortcomings, this work develops a structured methodology for integrating MARL into logistics planning and operational control. It introduces reference models that explicitly consider deadlock-capable multi-agent pathfinding (MAPF) problems, enabling systematic evaluation of MARL strategies. Using grid-based environments and an external simulation software, the study compares traditional deadlock handling strategies with MARL-based solutions, focusing on PPO and IMPALA algorithms under different training and execution modes. Findings reveal that MARL-based strategies, particularly when combined with centralized training and decentralized execution (CTDE), outperform rule-based methods in complex, congested environments. In simpler environments or those with ample spatial freedom, rule-based methods remain competitive due to their lower computational demands. These results highlight that MARL provides a flexible and scalable solution for deadlock handling in dynamic intralogistics scenarios, but requires careful tailoring to the operational context.

Bayesian inference, while foundational to probabilistic reasoning, is often hampered by the computational intractability of posterior distributions, particularly through the challenging evidence integral. Conventional approaches like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Variational Inference (VI) face significant scalability and efficiency limitations. This paper introduces a novel, unifying framework for fast Bayesian updates by leveraging harmonic analysis. We demonstrate that representing the prior and likelihood in a suitable orthogonal basis transforms the Bayesian update rule into a spectral convolution. Specifically, the Fourier coefficients of the posterior are shown to be the normalized convolution of the prior and likelihood coefficients. To achieve computational feasibility, we introduce a spectral truncation scheme, which, for smooth functions, yields an exceptionally accurate finite-dimensional approximation and reduces the update to a circular convolution. This formulation allows us to exploit the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), resulting in a deterministic algorithm with O(N log N) complexity -- a substantial improvement over the O(N^2) cost of naive methods. We establish rigorous mathematical criteria for the applicability of our method, linking its efficiency to the smoothness and spectral decay of the involved distributions. The presented work offers a paradigm shift, connecting Bayesian computation to signal processing and opening avenues for real-time, sequential inference in a wide class of problems.

The rapid evolution of the gaming industry, driven by technological advancements and a burgeoning community, necessitates a deeper understanding of user sentiments, especially as expressed on popular social media platforms like YouTube. This study presents a sentiment analysis on video games based on YouTube comments, aiming to understand user sentiments within the gaming community. Utilizing YouTube API, comments related to various video games were collected and analyzed using the TextBlob sentiment analysis tool. The pre-processed data underwent classification using machine learning algorithms, including Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Among these, SVM demonstrated superior performance, achieving the highest classification accuracy across different datasets. The analysis spanned multiple popular gaming videos, revealing trends and insights into user preferences and critiques. The findings underscore the importance of advanced sentiment analysis in capturing the nuanced emotions expressed in user comments, providing valuable feedback for game developers to enhance game design and user experience. Future research will focus on integrating more sophisticated natural language processing techniques and exploring additional data sources to further refine sentiment analysis in the gaming domain.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is a crucial approach to enhance the generalization capabilities and improve the sample efficiency of RL algorithms. However, current MBRL methods focus primarily on building world models for single tasks and rarely address generalization across different scenarios. Building on the insight that dynamics within the same simulation engine share inherent properties, we attempt to construct a unified world model capable of generalizing across different scenarios, named Meta-Regularized Contextual World-Model (MrCoM). This method first decomposes the latent state space into various components based on the dynamic characteristics, thereby enhancing the accuracy of world-model prediction. Further, MrCoM adopts meta-state regularization to extract unified representation of scenario-relevant information, and meta-value regularization to align world-model optimization with policy learning across diverse scenario objectives. We theoretically analyze the generalization error upper bound of MrCoM in multi-scenario settings. We systematically evaluate our algorithm's generalization ability across diverse scenarios, demonstrating significantly better performance than previous state-of-the-art methods.

Abstract--This paper focuses on dynamic origin-destination matrix estimation (DODE), a crucial calibration process necessary for the effective application of microscopic traffic simulations. The fundamental challenge of the DODE problem in microscopic simulations stems from the complex temporal dynamics and inherent uncertainty of individual vehicle dynamics. This makes it highly challenging to precisely determine which vehicle traverses which link at any given moment, resulting in intricate and often ambiguous relationships between origin-destination (OD) matrices and their contributions to resultant link flows. This phenomenon constitutes the credit assignment problem, a central challenge addressed in this study . We formulate the DODE problem as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and propose a novel framework that applies model-free deep reinforcement learning (DRL). Within our proposed framework, the agent learns an optimal policy to sequentially generate OD matrices, refining its strategy through direct interaction with the simulation environment. The proposed method is validated on the Nguyen-Dupuis network using SUMO, where its performance is evaluated against ground-truth link flows aggregated at 5-minute intervals over a 30-minute horizon. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves a 43.2% reduction in mean squared error (MSE) compared to the best-performing conventional baseline. By reframing DODE as a sequential decision-making problem, our approach addresses the credit assignment challenge through its learned policy, thereby overcoming the limitations of conventional methods and proposing a novel framework for calibration of microscopic traffic simulations. Modern strategies, such as speed harmonization, lane-changing control, and adaptive traffic signal control, are now predominantly designed and evaluated at the microscopic level, marking a significant shift in traffic management paradigms [2], [3], [4].

We study the problem of learning the topology of a directed Gaussian Graphical Model under the equal-variance assumption, where the graph has $n$ nodes and maximum in-degree $d$. Prior work has established that $O(d \log n)$ samples are sufficient for this task. However, an important factor that is often overlooked in these analyses is the dependence on the condition number of the covariance matrix of the model. Indeed, all algorithms from prior work require a number of samples that grows polynomially with this condition number. In many cases this is unsatisfactory, since the condition number could grow polynomially with $n$, rendering these prior approaches impractical in high-dimensional settings. In this work, we provide an algorithm that recovers the underlying graph and prove that the number of samples required is independent of the condition number. Furthermore, we establish lower bounds that nearly match the upper bound up to a $d$-factor, thus providing an almost tight characterization of the true sample complexity of the problem. Moreover, under a further assumption that all the variances of the variables are bounded, we design a polynomial-time algorithm that recovers the underlying graph, at the cost of an additional polynomial dependence of the sample complexity on $d$. We complement our theoretical findings with simulations on synthetic datasets that confirm our predictions.

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), which leverages Upper Confidence Bound for Trees (UCTs) to balance exploration and exploitation through randomized sampling, is instrumental to solving complex planning problems. However, for multi-agent planning, MCTS is confronted with a large combinatorial action space that often grows exponentially with the number of agents. As a result, the branching factor of MCTS during tree expansion also increases exponentially, making it very difficult to efficiently explore and exploit during tree search. To this end, we propose MALinZero, a new approach to leverage low-dimensional representational structures on joint-action returns and enable efficient MCTS in complex multi-agent planning. Our solution can be viewed as projecting the joint-action returns into the low-dimensional space representable using a contextual linear bandit problem formulation. We solve the contextual linear bandit problem with convex and $μ$-smooth loss functions -- in order to place more importance on better joint actions and mitigate potential representational limitations -- and derive a linear Upper Confidence Bound applied to trees (LinUCT) to enable novel multi-agent exploration and exploitation in the low-dimensional space. We analyze the regret of MALinZero for low-dimensional reward functions and propose an $(1-\tfrac1e)$-approximation algorithm for the joint action selection by maximizing a sub-modular objective. MALinZero demonstrates state-of-the-art performance on multi-agent benchmarks such as matrix games, SMAC, and SMACv2, outperforming both model-based and model-free multi-agent reinforcement learning baselines with faster learning speed and better performance.

We introduce disciplined biconvex programming (DBCP), a modeling framework for specifying and solving biconvex optimization problems. Biconvex optimization problems arise in various applications, including machine learning, signal processing, computational science, and control. Solving a biconvex optimization problem in practice usually resolves to heuristic methods based on alternate convex search (ACS), which iteratively optimizes over one block of variables while keeping the other fixed, so that the resulting subproblems are convex and can be efficiently solved. However, designing and implementing an ACS solver for a specific biconvex optimization problem usually requires significant effort from the user, which can be tedious and error-prone. DBCP extends the principles of disciplined convex programming to biconvex problems, allowing users to specify biconvex optimization problems in a natural way based on a small number of syntax rules. The resulting problem can then be automatically split and transformed into convex subproblems, for which a customized ACS solver is then generated and applied. DBCP allows users to quickly experiment with different biconvex problem formulations, without expertise in convex optimization. We implement DBCP into the open source Python package dbcp, as an extension to the famous domain specific language CVXPY for convex optimization.