In this work, we show that natural policy gradient, a core algorithm in reinforcement learning, admits an exact formulation as a smoothed and averaged form of policy iteration. Specifically, we introduce doubly smoothed policy iteration (DSPI), a Bellman-operator framework in which each policy is obtained by applying a regularized greedy step to a weighted average of past $Q$-functions. DSPI includes policy iteration, dual-averaged policy iteration, natural policy gradient, and more general policy dual averaging methods as special cases. Using only monotonicity and contraction of smoothed Bellman operators, we prove distribution-free global geometric convergence of DSPI. Consequently, standard natural policy gradient and policy dual averaging achieve an iteration complexity of $\mathcal{O}((1-γ)^{-1}\log((1-γ)^{-1}ε^{-1}))$ for computing an $ε$-optimal policy, without modifying the MDP, adding regularization beyond the mirror map inherent in the update, or using adaptive, trajectory-dependent stepsizes. For the unregularized greedy case, corresponding to dual-averaged policy iteration, we also prove finite termination. The same Bellman-operator framework further extends to discounted MDPs with linear function approximation and stochastic shortest path problems.

Rank-data and action-trace datasets are typically recorded as linear sequences, although the constraints governing valid outcomes are often only partially ordered. These constraints may be temporal or process-based [24, 23, 16], causal [5], or dominance-based [28], and are usually not observed directly. Inferring them is important because they encode interpretable structure and support feasibility evaluation on new sequences. In these settings, however, the underlying relation is often incomplete: the latent structure is a partial order, or poset, in which pairs of items that can occur in either order have no precedence relation. Consequently, an observed order need not imply a true prerequisite relation; it may reflect scheduling, logging, or a single valid linearization of the latent partial order. Treating all observed precedences as real can therefore produce overly sequential and unrealistic structures, especially in workflow or LLM-agent settings where unnecessary ordering induces extra execution steps and compute.

Establishing almost sure convergence rates for stochastic approximation and reinforcement learning under Markovian noise is a fundamental theoretical challenge. We make progress towards this challenge for a class of stochastic approximation algorithms whose expected updates are contractive, a setting that arises in many reinforcement learning algorithms such as $Q$-learning and linear temporal difference learning. Specifically, for a power-law learning rate $O(n^{-η})$ with $η\in (1/2, 1)$, we obtain an almost sure convergence rate arbitrarily close to $o(n^{1 - 2η})$. For a harmonic learning rate $O(n^{-1})$, we obtain an almost sure convergence rate arbitrarily close to $o(n^{-1})$, which we argue is a strong result because it is close to the optimal rate $O(n^{-1}\log\log n)$ given by the law of the iterated logarithm (for a special case of i.i.d. noise). Key to our analysis is a novel Lyapunov drift construction that applies a Poisson-equation based correction for Markovian noise to the well-established Moreau-envelope smoothing for the contractive mapping.

For continuous state-action space scenarios, classical reinforcement learning (RL) theory predominantly focuses on low-rank Markov decision processes (MDPs), which provide sample-efficient guarantees at the expense of restrictive structural assumptions. Kernel smoothing model-based approaches offer a promising alternative paradigm that instead leverages the smoothness of the MDP and employs non-parametric kernel smoothing estimates of transition dynamics. This paper proposes a new kernel-smoothing model-based approach for online reinforcement learning in finite-horizon settings under Lipschitz continuity assumptions on the MDP. By incorporating a Bernstein-style exploration bonus into the kernel smoothing framework, our method achieves a regret bound which improves upon the state-of-the-art regret bound in its dependence on the horizon. The theoretical advancement relies on a delicate analysis of the synergy between Bernstein-style bonuses and kernel smoothing, where a new tight Bernstein-type concentration inequality for martingales may be of independent interest.

Vision-Language Latent Diffusion Models (LDMs) (Rombach et al., 2022) provide powerful generative priors for inverse problems. However, existing LDM-based inverse solvers typically require a large number of neural function evaluations (NFEs) and backpropagation through large pretrained components, leading to substantial computational costs and, in some cases, degraded reconstruction quality. We propose a unified Euclidean-Wasserstein-2 gradient-flow framework that jointly performs posterior sampling and prompt optimization in the latent space through a single flow that aligns the prior and posterior with the observed data. Combined with few-step latent text-to-image models, this formulation enables low-NFE inference without backpropagation through autoencoders. Experiments across several canonical imaging inverse problems show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance with significantly reduced computational cost.

We study methods for simultaneous analysis of many noisy and biased estimates, each paired with an even noisier estimate of its own bias. The analyst's goal is to construct short calibrated intervals for each parameter. The standard debiasing approach, which subtracts the bias estimate from each biased estimate, inflates variance and yields long intervals. In this paper, we propose an empirical Bayes rebiasing strategy that starts from the fully debiased estimates and learns from data how much bias to reintroduce by estimating the unknown bias distribution. We provide convergence rates for the coverage of our intervals when the bias distribution is estimated using nonparametric maximum likelihood. Furthermore, we demonstrate substantial precision gains in prediction-powered inference, including pairwise LLM win-rate evaluations, as well as for inference of direct genetic effects in family-based GWAS.

We develop a Bayesian tree ensemble model to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects in censored survival data with high-dimensional covariates. Instead of imposing sparsity through the tree structure, we place a horseshoe prior directly on the step heights to achieve adaptive global-local shrinkage. This strategy allows flexible regularisation and reduces noise. We develop a reversible jump Gibbs sampler to accommodate the non-conjugate horseshoe prior within the tree ensemble framework. We show through extensive simulations that the method accurately estimates treatment effects in high-dimensional covariate spaces, at various sparsity levels, and under non-linear treatment effect functions. We further illustrate the practical utility of the proposed approach by a re-analysis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) survival data from The Cancer Genome Atlas.

LLMs excel at predictive tasks and complex reasoning tasks, but many high-value deployments rely on decisions under uncertainty, for example, which tool to call, which expert to consult, or how many resources to invest. While the usefulness and feasibility of Bayesian approaches remain unclear for LLM inference, this position paper argues that the control layer of an agentic AI system (that orchestrates LLMs and tools) is a clear case where Bayesian principles should shine. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for agentic systems that can help to maintain beliefs over task-relevant latent quantities, to update these beliefs from observed agentic and human-AI interactions, and to choose actions. Making LLMs themselves explicitly Bayesian belief-updating engines remains computationally intensive and conceptually nontrivial as a general modeling target. In contrast, this paper argues that coherent decision-making requires Bayesian principles at the orchestration level of the agentic system, not necessarily the LLM agent parameters. This paper articulates practical properties for Bayesian control that fit modern agentic AI systems and human-AI collaboration, and provides concrete examples and design patterns to illustrate how calibrated beliefs and utility-aware policies can improve agentic AI orchestration.

External priors of unknown reliability create a brittle trade-off in causal discovery: blind trust amplifies errors, blind rejection wastes signal. Real priors are also heterogeneously reliable -- physical laws are trustworthy, LLM-suggested edges are speculative -- yet existing methods either ignore priors or impose them through globally uniform trust. We propose PRCD-MAP, a soft prior-consumption layer that assigns per-edge trust to an imperfect prior and uses it to modulate a prior-aware $\ell_1$ and prior-weighted $\ell_2$ regularizer in a MAP objective. Trust is calibrated by empirical Bayes on a Laplace-approximated marginal likelihood and propagated along the prior graph by an MLP, so data-confirmed neighborhoods boost trust and contradictions suppress it. PRCD-MAP enjoys a population-level safety guarantee: it is $\varepsilon$-safe in expectation over the prior-generation distribution, with $\varepsilon\leq C\cdot\mathrm{acc}(1{-}\mathrm{acc})\cdot d^2/T$ at the parametric $T^{-1}$ rate and vanishing at the prior-quality endpoints. When the prior is uninformative, learned trust provably collapses to its floor and the method recovers a no-prior baseline. Empirically, on real CausalTime data PRCD-MAP exploits informative LLM priors (LLM-prior gain $+0.067/+0.089$ AUROC on AQI/Medical over a no-prior PRCD-MAP backbone; combined backbone+prior lead $+0.123/+0.043$ over PCMCI+), auto-attenuates on the anonymous-variable Traffic stress test, and retains a lead at $d{=}300$; against BayesDAG, the closest soft-Bayesian baseline, PRCD-MAP wins on every CausalTime dataset under a matched $W_0$-only protocol. A four-way ablation isolates each component: EB calibration and MLP trust propagation jointly carry the plurality of the gain, with positive sign on every dataset. Extensions to nonlinear (NAM) and cross-sectional settings show the calibrated-trust principle is setting-agnostic.

Accurate trend forecasting in healthcare time series is essential for planning and resource allocation. This paper proposes a Bayesian framework for predicting oncology demand trends, modeling weekly appointments as a Poisson process with a Gamma prior to the demand rate. To enhance adaptability and capture persistent directional patterns, we incorporate a residual-based boosting mechanism grounded in a Gamma-Log-Normal conjugate structure. This boosting approach allows the model to track both short- and long-term trend shifts while maintaining the analytical tractability of conjugate Bayesian updating. The methodology was evaluated on real oncology service data from Cariri, Ceara, Brazil, and compared against established baselines, including linear regression, ARIMA, naive forecasting, LSTM neural networks, and XGBoost. Results showed that the proposed model outperforms competing methods in trend detection accuracy, with gains in terms of percentage of correct direction of 38.25% in relation to the second best approach in some cases.