Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are widely used in statistics and machine learning. Bayesian inference in non-conjugate LGMs is difficult due to intractable integrals involving the Gaussian prior and non-conjugate likelihoods. Algorithms based on variational Gaussian (VG) approximations are widely employed since they strike a favorable balance between accuracy, generality, speed, and ease of use. However, the structure of the optimization problems associated with these approximations remains poorly understood, and standard solvers take too long to converge. We derive a novel dual variational inference approach that exploits the convexity property of the VG approximations. We obtain an algorithm that solves a convex optimization problem, reduces the number of variational parameters, and converges much faster than previous methods. Using real-world data, we demonstrate these advantages on a variety of LGMs, including Gaussian process classification, and latent Gaussian Markov random fields.

We show an efficient algorithm for the following problem: Given uniformly random points from an arbitrary n-dimensional simplex, estimate the simplex. The size of the sample and the number of arithmetic operations of our algorithm are polynomial in n. This answers a question of Frieze, Jerrum and Kannan [FJK]. Our result can also be interpreted as efficiently learning the intersection of n+1 half-spaces in R^n in the model where the intersection is bounded and we are given polynomially many uniform samples from it. Our proof uses the local search technique from Independent Component Analysis (ICA), also used by [FJK]. Unlike these previous algorithms, which were based on analyzing the fourth moment, ours is based on the third moment. We also show a direct connection between the problem of learning a simplex and ICA: a simple randomized reduction to ICA from the problem of learning a simplex. The connection is based on a known representation of the uniform measure on a simplex. Similar representations lead to a reduction from the problem of learning an affine transformation of an n-dimensional l_p ball to ICA.

We propose a technique for increasing the efficiency of gradient-based inference and learning in Bayesian networks with multiple layers of continuous latent vari- ables. We show that, in many cases, it is possible to express such models in an auxiliary form, where continuous latent variables are conditionally deterministic given their parents and a set of independent auxiliary variables. Variables of mod- els in this auxiliary form have much larger Markov blankets, leading to significant speedups in gradient-based inference, e.g. rapid mixing Hybrid Monte Carlo and efficient gradient-based optimization. The relative efficiency is confirmed in ex- periments.

Probabilistic programming allows specification of probabilistic models in a declarative manner. Recently, several new software systems and languages for probabilistic programming have been developed on the basis of newly developed and improved methods for approximate inference in probabilistic models. In this contribution a probabilistic model for an idealized dark matter localization problem is described. We first derive the probabilistic model for the inference of dark matter locations and masses, and then show how this model can be implemented using BUGS and Infer.NET, two software systems for probabilistic programming. Finally, the different capabilities of both systems are discussed. The presented dark matter model includes mainly non-conjugate factors, thus, it is difficult to implement this model with Infer.NET.

The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure to capture shifts in market conditions and c) large computational costs. To address these problems we introduce a novel dynamic model for time-changing covariances. Over-fitting and local optima are avoided by following a Bayesian approach instead of computing point estimates. Changes in market conditions are captured by assuming a diffusion process in parameter values, and finally computationally efficient and scalable inference is performed using particle filters. Experiments with financial data show excellent performance of the proposed method with respect to current standard models.

We present a family of expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms for binary and negative-binomial logistic regression, drawing a sharp connection with the variational-Bayes algorithm of Jaakkola and Jordan (2000). Indeed, our results allow a version of this variational-Bayes approach to be re-interpreted as a true EM algorithm. We study several interesting features of the algorithm, and of this previously unrecognized connection with variational Bayes. We also generalize the approach to sparsity-promoting priors, and to an online method whose convergence properties are easily established. This latter method compares favorably with stochastic-gradient descent in situations with marked collinearity.

In data analysis, latent variables play a central role because they help provide powerful insights into a wide variety of phenomena, ranging from biological to human sciences. The latent tree model, a particular type of probabilistic graphical models, deserves attention. Its simple structure - a tree - allows simple and efficient inference, while its latent variables capture complex relationships. In the past decade, the latent tree model has been subject to significant theoretical and methodological developments. In this review, we propose a comprehensive study of this model. First we summarize key ideas underlying the model. Second we explain how it can be efficiently learned from data. Third we illustrate its use within three types of applications: latent structure discovery, multidimensional clustering, and probabilistic inference. Finally, we conclude and give promising directions for future researches in this field.

Mammography is the most effective and available tool for breast cancer screening. However, the low positive predictive value of breast biopsy resulting from mammogram interpretation leads to approximately 70% unnecessary biopsies with benign outcomes. Data mining algorithms could be used to help physicians in their decisions to perform a breast biopsy on a suspicious lesion seen in a mammogram image or to perform a short term follow-up examination instead. In this research paper data mining classification algorithms; Decision Tree (DT), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) are analyzed on mammographic masses data set. The purpose of this study is to increase the ability of physicians to determine the severity (benign or malignant) of a mammographic mass lesion from BI-RADS attributes and the patient,s age. The whole data set is divided for training the models and test them by the ratio of 70:30% respectively and the performances of classification algorithms are compared through three statistical measures; sensitivity, specificity, and classification accuracy. Accuracy of DT, ANN and SVM are 78.12%, 80.56% and 81.25% of test samples respectively. Our analysis shows that out of these three classification models SVM predicts severity of breast cancer with least error rate and highest accuracy.

In this paper is proposed a new heuristic approach belonging to the field of evolutionary Estimation of Distribution Algorithms (EDAs). EDAs builds a probability model and a set of solutions is sampled from the model which characterizes the distribution of such solutions. The main framework of the proposed method is an estimation of distribution algorithm, in which an adaptive Gibbs sampling is used to generate new promising solutions and, in combination with a local search strategy, it improves the individual solutions produced in each iteration. The Estimation of Distribution Algorithm with Adaptive Gibbs Sampling we are proposing in this paper is called AGEDA. We experimentally evaluate and compare this algorithm against two deterministic procedures and several stochastic methods in three well known test problems for unconstrained global optimization. It is empirically shown that our heuristic is robust in problems that involve three central aspects that mainly determine the difficulty of global optimization problems, namely high-dimensionality, multi-modality and non-smoothness.

We generalize the stochastic block model to the important case in which edges are annotated with weights drawn from an exponential family distribution. This generalization introduces several technical difficulties for model estimation, which we solve using a Bayesian approach. We introduce a variational algorithm that efficiently approximates the model's posterior distribution for dense graphs. In specific numerical experiments on edge-weighted networks, this weighted stochastic block model outperforms the common approach of first applying a single threshold to all weights and then applying the classic stochastic block model, which can obscure latent block structure in networks. This model will enable the recovery of latent structure in a broader range of network data than was previously possible.