Network medicine is an emerging paradigm for studying the co-occurrence between diseases. While diseases are often interlinked through complex patterns, most of the existing work in this area has focused on studying pairwise relationships between diseases. In this paper, we use a state-of-the-art Markov network learning method to learn interactions between musculoskeletal disorders and cardiovascular diseases and compare this to pairwise approaches. Our experimental results confirm that the sophisticated structure learner produces more accurate models, which can help reveal interesting patterns in the co-occurrence of diseases.

Opponents are characterized by a Bayesian network intended to guide Monte-Carlo Tree Search through the game tree of No-Limit Texas Hold'em Poker. By using a probabilistic model of opponents, the network is able to integrate all available sources of information, including the infrequent revelations of hidden beliefs. These revelations are biased, and as such are difficult to incorporate into action prediction. The proposed network mitigates this bias via the expectation maximization algorithm and a probabilistic characterization of the hidden variables that generate observations. 

We propose here an approach for learning parameters in Bayesian networks from incomplete datasets that are subject to equivalence constraints. These equivalence constraints arise from datasets where examples are tied together, in that we may not know the value of a particular variable, but whatever that value is, we know it must be the same across different examples. We formalize the problem by defining the notion of a constrained dataset — a dataset with equivalence constraints — and a corresponding constrained likelihood that we seek to optimize. We derive an EM algorithm to estimate parameters from constrained datasets, which reduces to the vanilla EM algorithm when estimating parameters from traditional datasets. Finally, we evaluate our general approach in clustering problems from semi-supervised learning, showing that it is competitive with more specialized approaches.

Adverse and anomalous (A&A) events are a serious concern in medical robots. We describe a system that can rapidly detect such events and predict their occurrence. As part of this system, we describe simulation, data collection and user interface tools we build for a robot for small animal biopsies. The data we collect consists of both the hardware state of the robot and variables in the software controller. We use this data to train dynamic Bayesian network models of the joint hardware-software state-space dynamics of the robot. Our empirical evaluation shows that (i) our models can accurately model normal behavior of the robot, (ii) they can rapidly detect anomalous behavior once it starts, (iii) they can accurately predict a future A&A event within a time window of it starting and (iv) the use of additional software variables beyond the hardware state of the robot is important in being able to detect and predict certain kinds of events.

This paper tackles high-level decision-making techniques for robotic missions, which involve both active sensing and symbolic goal reaching, under uncertain probabilistic environments and strong time constraints. Our case study is a POMDP model of an online multi-target detection and recognition mission by an autonomous UAV. The POMDP model of the multi-target detection and recognition problem is generated online from a list of areas of interest, which are automatically extracted at the beginning of the flight from a coarse-grained high altitude observation of the scene. The POMDP observation model relies on a statistical abstraction of an image processing algorithm's output used to detect targets. As the POMDP problem cannot be known and thus optimized before the beginning of the flight, our main contribution is an "optimize-while-execute" algorithmic framework: it drives a POMDP sub-planner to optimize and execute the POMDP policy in parallel under action duration constraints. We present new results from real outdoor flights and SAIL simulations, which highlight both the benefits of using POMDPs in multi-target detection and recognition missions, and of our "optimize-while-execute" paradigm.

Mixed probabilistic and deterministic graphical models are ubiquitous in real-world applications. Unfortunately, Gibbs sampling, a popular MCMC technique, does not converge to the correct answers in presence of determinism and therefore cannot be used for inference in such models. In this paper, we propose to remedy this problem by combining Gibbs sampling with SampleSearch, an advanced importance sampling technique which leverages complete SAT/CSP solvers to generate high quality samples from hard deterministic spaces. We call the resulting algorithm, GiSS. Unlike Gibbs sampling which yields unweighted samples, GiSS yields weighted samples. Computing these weights exactly can be computationally expensive and therefore we propose several approximations. We show that our approximate weighting schemes yield consistent estimates and demonstrate experimentally that GiSS is competitive in terms of accuracy with state-of-the-art algorithms such as SampleSearch, MC-SAT and Belief propagation.

Markov processes are increasingly used to generate finite-length sequences that imitate a given style. However, Markov processes are notoriously difficult to control. Recently, Markov constraints have been introduced to give users some control on generated sequences. Markov constraints reformulate finite-length Markov sequence generation in the framework of constraint satisfaction (CSP). However, in practice, this approach is limited to local constraints and its performance is low for global constraints, such as cardinality or arithmetic constraints. This limitation prevents generated sequences to follow structural properties which are independent of the style, but inherent to the domain, such as meter. In this article, we introduce meter, a constraint that ensures a sequence is 1) Markovian with regards to a given corpus and 2) follows metrical rules expressed as cumulative cost functions. Additionally, meter can simultaneously enforce cardinality constraints. We propose a domain consistency algorithm whose complexity is pseudo-polynomial. This result is obtained thanks to a theorem on the growth of sumsets by Khovanskii. We illustrate our constraint on meter-constrained music generation problems that were so far not solvable by any other technique.

One of the most difficult tasks in value function approximation for Markov Decision Processes is finding an approximation architecture that is expressive enough to capture the important structure in the value function, while at the same time not overfitting the training samples. Recent results in non-parametric approximate linear programming (NP-ALP), have demonstrated that this can be done effectively using nothing more than a smoothness assumption on the value function. In this paper we extend these results to the case where samples come from real world transitions instead of the full Bellman equation, adding robustness to noise. In addition, we provide the first max-norm, finite sample performance guarantees for any form of ALP. NP-ALP is amenable to problems with large (multidimensional) or even infinite (continuous) action spaces, and does not require a model to select actions using the resulting approximate solution.

Current exploration algorithms can be classified in two broad categories: Heuristic, and PAC optimal. While numerous researchers have used heuristic approaches such as epsilon-greedy exploration successfully, such approaches lack formal, finite sample guarantees and may need a significant amount of fine-tuning to produce good results. PAC optimal exploration algorithms, on the other hand, offer strong theoretical guarantees but are inapplicable in domains of realistic size. The goal of this paper is to bridge the gap between theory and practice, by introducing C-PACE, an algorithm which offers strong theoretical guarantees and can be applied to interesting, continuous space problems.

Social choice theory provides insights into a variety of collective decision making settings, but nowadays some of its tenets are challenged by internet environments, which call for dynamic decision making under constantly changing preferences. In this paper we model the problem via Markov decision processes (MDP), where the states of the MDP coincide with preference profiles and a (deterministic, stationary) policy corresponds to a social choice function. We can therefore employ the axioms studied in the social choice literature as guidelines in the design of socially desirable policies. We present tractable algorithms that compute optimal policies under different prominent social choice constraints. Our machinery relies on techniques for exploiting symmetries and isomorphisms between MDPs.