Safety in stochastic control systems, which are subject to random noise with a known probability distribution, aims to compute policies that satisfy predefined operational constraints with high confidence throughout the uncertain evolution of the state variables. The unpredictable evolution of state variables poses a significant challenge for meeting predefined constraints using various control methods. To address this, we present a new algorithm that computes safe policies to determine the safety level across a finite state set. This algorithm reduces the safety objective to the standard average reward Markov Decision Process (MDP) objective. This reduction enables us to use standard techniques, such as linear programs, to compute and analyze safe policies. We validate the proposed method numerically on the Double Integrator and the Inverted Pendulum systems. Results indicate that the average-reward MDPs solution is more comprehensive, converges faster, and offers higher quality compared to the minimum discounted-reward solution. Keywords: Safety Critical Systems, Robotics, Average Reward MDPs, Stochastic Control.

Abstract--With the growing adoption of AI and machine learning systems in real-world applications, ensuring their fairness has become increasingly critical. There is relatively little research on fairness vulnerability, i.e., how an AI system's fairness can be intentionally compromised. In this work, we first provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating that a simple adversarial poisoning strategy is sufficient to induce maximally unfair behavior in naive Bayes classifiers. Our key idea is to strategically inject a small fraction of carefully crafted adversarial data points into the training set, biasing the model's decision boundary to disproportionately affect a protected group while preserving generalizable performance. T o illustrate the practical effectiveness of our method, we conduct experiments across several benchmark datasets and models. We find that our attack significantly outperforms existing methods in degrading fairness metrics across multiple models and datasets, often achieving substantially higher levels of unfairness with a comparable or only slightly worse impact on accuracy. Notably, our method proves effective on a wide range of models, in contrast to prior work, demonstrating a robust and potent approach to compromising the fairness of machine learning systems. Ensuring fairness in AI and machine learning systems is a critical concern alongside their growing real-world deployment.

In this study, we develop an approach to multivariate time series anomaly detection focused on the transformation of multivariate time series to univariate time series. Several transformation techniques involving Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering and fuzzy integral are studied. In the sequel, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), one of the commonly encountered statistical methods, is engaged here to detect anomalies in multivariate time series. We construct HMM-based anomaly detectors and in this context compare several transformation methods. A suite of experimental studies along with some comparative analysis is reported.

We investigate reinforcement learning (RL) in the presence of distributional mismatch between training and deployment, where policies trained in simulators often underperform in practice due to mismatches between training and deployment conditions, and thereby reliable guarantees on real-world performance are essential. Distributionally robust RL addresses this issue by optimizing worst-case performance over an uncertainty set of environments and providing an optimized lower bound on deployment performance. However, existing studies typically assume access to either a generative model or offline datasets with broad coverage of the deployment environment-assumptions that limit their practicality in unknown environments without prior knowledge. In this work, we study a more practical and challenging setting: online distributionally robust RL, where the agent interacts only with a single unknown training environment while seeking policies that are robust with respect to an uncertainty set around this nominal model. We consider general $f$-divergence-based ambiguity sets, including $χ^2$ and KL divergence balls, and design a computationally efficient algorithm that achieves sublinear regret for the robust control objective under minimal assumptions, without requiring generative or offline data access. Moreover, we establish a corresponding minimax lower bound on the regret of any online algorithm, demonstrating the near-optimality of our method. Experiments across diverse environments with model misspecification show that our approach consistently improves worst-case performance and aligns with the theoretical guarantees.

Reinforcement learning-based post-training of large language models (LLMs) has recently gained attention, particularly following the release of DeepSeek R1, which applied GRPO for fine-tuning. Amid the growing hype around improved reasoning abilities attributed to RL post-training, we critically examine the formulation and assumptions underlying these methods. We start by highlighting the popular structural assumptions made in modeling LLM training as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), and show how they lead to a degenerate MDP that doesn't quite need the RL/GRPO apparatus. The two critical structural assumptions include (1) making the MDP states be just a concatenation of the actions-with states becoming the context window and the actions becoming the tokens in LLMs and (2) splitting the reward of a state-action trajectory uniformly across the trajectory. Through a comprehensive analysis, we demonstrate that these simplifying assumptions make the approach effectively equivalent to an outcome-driven supervised learning. Our experiments on benchmarks including GSM8K and Countdown using Qwen-2.5 base models show that iterative supervised fine-tuning, incorporating both positive and negative samples, achieves performance comparable to GRPO-based training. We will also argue that the structural assumptions indirectly incentivize the RL to generate longer sequences of intermediate tokens-which in turn feeds into the narrative of "RL generating longer thinking traces." While RL may well be a very useful technique for improving the reasoning abilities of LLMs, our analysis shows that the simplistic structural assumptions made in modeling the underlying MDP render the popular LLM RL frameworks and their interpretations questionable.

Bayesian networks and causal models provide frameworks for handling queries about external interventions and counterfactuals, enabling tasks that go beyond what probability distributions alone can address. While these formalisms are often informally described as capturing causal knowledge, there is a lack of a formal theory characterizing the type of knowledge required to predict the effects of external interventions. This work introduces the theoretical framework of causal systems to clarify Aristotle's distinction between knowledge that and knowledge why within artificial intelligence. By interpreting existing artificial intelligence technologies as causal systems, it investigates the corresponding types of knowledge. Furthermore, it argues that predicting the effects of external interventions is feasible only with knowledge why, providing a more precise understanding of the knowledge necessary for such tasks.

Bayesian optimal experimental design is a principled framework for conducting experiments that leverages Bayesian inference to quantify how much information one can expect to gain from selecting a certain design. However, accurate Bayesian inference relies on the assumption that one's statistical model of the data-generating process is correctly specified. If this assumption is violated, Bayesian methods can lead to poor inference and estimates of information gain. Generalised Bayesian (or Gibbs) inference is a more robust probabilistic inference framework that replaces the likelihood in the Bayesian update by a suitable loss function. In this work, we present Generalised Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (GBOED), an extension of Gibbs inference to the experimental design setting which achieves robustness in both design and inference. Using an extended information-theoretic framework, we derive a new acquisition function, the Gibbs expected information gain (Gibbs EIG). Our empirical results demonstrate that GBOED enhances robustness to outliers and incorrect assumptions about the outcome noise distribution.

Hierarchical Bayesian models based on Gaussian processes a re considered useful for describing complex nonlinear statistical dependen cies among variables in real-world data. However, effective Monte Carlo algorithm s for inference with these models have not yet been established, except for sever al simple cases. In this study, we show that, compared with the slow inference ac hieved with existing program libraries, the performance of Riemannian-m anifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (RMHMC) can be drastically improved by optimisi ng the computation order according to the model structure and dynamical ly programming the eigendecomposition. This improvement cannot be achieved w hen using an existing library based on a naive automatic differentiator. W e nu merically demonstrate that RMHMC effectively samples from the posterior, allowin g the calculation of model evidence, in a Bayesian logistic regression on simula ted data and in the estimation of propensity functions for the American nation al medical expenditure data using several Bayesian multiple-kernel models. These results lay a foundation for implementing effective Monte Carlo algorithms for analysing real-world data with Gaussian processes, and highlight the need to deve lop a customisable library set that allows users to incorporate dynamically pr ogrammed objects and finely optimises the mode of automatic differentiation depe nding on the model structure.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for adaptively collected data, such as that coming from adaptive experiments, bandits, or reinforcement learning, is necessary for critical elements of data collection such as ensuring safety and conducting after-study inference. The data's adaptivity creates significant challenges for frequentist UQ, yet Bayesian UQ remains the same as if the data were independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.), making it an appealing and commonly used approach. Bayesian UQ requires the (correct) specification of a prior distribution while frequentist UQ does not, but for i.i.d. data the celebrated Bernstein-von Mises theorem shows that as the sample size grows, the prior 'washes out' and Bayesian UQ becomes frequentist-valid, implying that the choice of prior need not be a major impediment to Bayesian UQ as it makes no difference asymptotically. This paper for the first time extends the Bernstein-von Mises theorem to adaptively collected data, proving asymptotic equivalence between Bayesian UQ and Wald-type frequentist UQ in this challenging setting. Our result showing this asymptotic agreement does not require the standard stability condition required by works studying validity of Wald-type frequentist UQ; in cases where stability is satisfied, our results combined with these prior studies of frequentist UQ imply frequentist validity of Bayesian UQ. Counterintuitively however, they also provide a negative result that Bayesian UQ is not asymptotically frequentist valid when stability fails, despite the fact that the prior washes out and Bayesian UQ asymptotically matches standard Wald-type frequentist UQ. We empirically validate our theory (positive and negative) via a range of simulations.

Supply chain disruptions and volatile demand pose significant challenges to the UK automotive industry, which relies heavily on Just-In-Time (JIT) manufacturing. While qualitative studies highlight the potential of integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) with traditional optimization, a formal, quantitative demonstration of this synergy is lacking. This paper introduces a novel stochastic learning-optimization framework that integrates Bayesian inference with inventory optimization for supply chain management (SCM). We model a two-echelon inventory system subject to stochastic demand and supply disruptions, comparing a traditional static optimization policy against an adaptive policy where Bayesian learning continuously updates parameter estimates to inform stochastic optimization. Our simulations over 365 periods across three operational scenarios demonstrate that the integrated approach achieves 7.4\% cost reduction in stable environments and 5.7\% improvement during supply disruptions, while revealing important limitations during sudden demand shocks due to the inherent conservatism of Bayesian updating. This work provides mathematical validation for practitioner observations and establishes a formal framework for understanding AI-driven supply chain resilience, while identifying critical boundary conditions for successful implementation.