We present a new sampling approach to Bayesian learning of the Bayesian network structure. Like some earlier sampling methods, we sample linear orders on nodes rather than directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). The key difference is that we replace the usual Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method by the method of annealed importance sampling (AIS). We show that AIS is not only competitive to MCMC in exploring the posterior, but also superior to MCMC in two ways: it enables easy and efficient parallelization, due to the independence of the samples, and lower-bounding of the marginal likelihood of the model with good probabilistic guarantees. We also provide a principled way to correct the bias due to order-based sampling, by implementing a fast algorithm for counting the linear extensions of a given partial order.

We present online nested expectation maximization for model-free reinforcement learning in a POMDP. The algorithm evaluates the policy only in the current learning episode, discarding the episode after the evaluation and memorizing the sufficient statistic, from which the policy is computed in closed-form. As a result, the online algorithm has a time complexity O ( n ) and a memory complexity O (1), compared to O ( n 2 ) and O ( n ) for the corresponding batch-mode algorithm, where $n$ is the number of learning episodes. The online algorithm, which has a provable convergence, is demonstrated on five benchmark POMDP problems.

Thresholding a measure in conditional independence (CI) tests using a fixed value enables learning and removing edges as part of learning a Bayesian network structure. However, the learned structure is sensitive to the threshold that is commonly selected: 1) arbitrarily; 2) irrespective of characteristics of the domain; and 3) fixed for all CI tests. We analyze the impact on mutual information – a CI measure – of factors, such as sample size, degree of variable dependence, and variables’ cardinalities. Following, we suggest to adaptively threshold individual tests based on the factors. We show that adaptive thresholds better distinguish between pairs of dependent variables and pairs of independent variables and enable learning structures more accurately and quickly than when using fixed thresholds.

With information about the world implicitly embedded in complex, high-dimensional neural population responses, the brain must perform some sort of statistical inference on a large scale to form hypotheses about the state of the environment. This ability is, in part, acquired after birth and often with very little feedback to guide learning. This is a very difficult learning problem considering the little information about the meaning of neural responses available at birth. In this paper, we address the question of how the brain might solve this problem: We present an unsupervised artificial neural network algorithm which takes from the self-organizing map (SOM) algorithm the ability to learn a latent variable model from its input. We extend the SOM algorithm so it learns about the distribution of noise in the input and computes probability density functions over the latent variables. The algorithm represents these probability density functions using population codes. This is done with very few assumptions about the distribution of noise. Our simulations indicate that our algorithm can learn to perform similar to a maximum likelihood estimator with the added benefit of requiring no a-priori knowledge about the input and computing not only best hypotheses, but also probabilities for alternatives.

We present a novel approach for multilabel classification based on an ensemble of Bayesian networks. The class variables are connected by a tree; each model of the ensemble uses a different class as root of the tree. We assume the features to be conditionally independent given the classes, thus generalizing the naive Bayes assumption to the multiclass case. This assumption allows us to optimally identify the correlations between classes and features; such correlations are moreover shared across all models of the ensemble. Inferences are drawn from the ensemble via logarithmic opinion pooling. To minimize Hamming loss, we compute the marginal probability of the classes by running standard inference on each Bayesian network in the ensemble, and then pooling the inferences. To instead minimize the subset 0/1 loss, we pool the joint distributions of each model and cast the problem as a MAP inference in the corresponding graphical model. Experiments show that the approach is competitive with state-of-the-art methods for multilabel classification.

The Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (Dec-POMDP) is a powerful model for multi-agent planning under uncertainty, but its applicability is hindered by its high complexity -- solving Dec-POMDPs optimally is NEXP-hard. Recently, Kumar et al. introduced the Value Factorization (VF) framework, which exploits decomposable value functions that can be factored into subfunctions. This framework has been shown to be a generalization of several models that leverage sparse agent interactions such as TI-Dec-MDPs, ND-POMDPs and TD-POMDPs. Existing algorithms for these models assume that the interaction graph of the problem is given. In this paper, we introduce three algorithms to automatically generate interaction graphs for models within the VF framework and establish lower and upper bounds on the expected reward of an optimal joint policy. We illustrate experimentally the benefits of these techniques for sensor placement in a decentralized tracking application.

We address two significant drawbacks of state-of-the-art solvers of decentralized POMDPs (DEC-POMDPs): the reliance on complete knowledge of the model and limited scalability as the complexity of the domain grows. We extend a recently proposed approach for solving DEC-POMDPs via a reduction to the maximum likelihood problem, which in turn can be solved using EM. We introduce a model-free version of this approach that employs Monte-Carlo EM(MCEM). While a naive implementation of MCEM is inadequate in multi-agent settings, we introduce several improvements in sampling that produce high-quality results on a variety of DEC-POMDP benchmarks, including large problems with thousands of agents.

We present a bimodal method for online planning in partially observable multiagent settings as formalized by a finitely-nested interactive partially observable Markov decision process (I-POMDP). An agent planning in an environment shared with another updates beliefs both over the physical state and the other agents' models. In problems where we do not observe other's action explicitly but must infer it from sensing its effect on the state, observations are more informative about the other when the belief over the state space has reduced uncertainty. For typical, uncertain initial beliefs, we model the agent as if it were acting alone and utilize fast online planning for POMDPs. Subsequently, the agent switches to online planning in multiagent settings. We maintain tight lower and upper bounds at each step, and switch over when the difference between them reduces to less than ε.

Optimal decentralized decision making in a team of cooperative agents as formalized by decentralized POMDPs is a notoriously hard problem. A major obstacle is that the agents do not have access to a sufficient statistic during execution, which means that they need to base their actions on their histories of observations. A consequence is that even during off-line planning the choice of decision rules for different stages is tightly interwoven: decisions of earlier stages affect how to act optimally at later stages, and the optimal value function for a stage is known to have a dependence on the decisions made up to that point. This paper makes a contribution to the theory of decentralized POMDPs by showing how this dependence on the 'past joint policy' can be replaced by a sufficient statistic. These results are extended to the case of k-step delayed communication. The paper investigates the practical implications, as well as the effectiveness of a new pruning technique for MAA* methods, in a number of benchmark problems and discusses future avenues of research opened by these contributions.

This paper details the development and evaluation of AstonTAC, an energy broker that successfully participated in the 2012 Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC). AstonTAC buys electrical energy from the wholesale market and sells it in the retail market. The main focus of the paper is on the broker's bidding strategy in the wholesale market. In particular, it employs Markov Decision Processes (MDP) to purchase energy at low prices in a day-ahead power wholesale market, and keeps energy supply and demand balanced. Moreover, we explain how the agent uses Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHHMM) to forecast energy demand and price. An evaluation and analysis of the 2012 Power TAC finals show that AstonTAC is the only agent that can buy energy at low price in the wholesale market and keep energy imbalance low.