Gaussian processes (GPs) are Bayesian state-of-the-art tools for discriminative machine learning, i.e., regression [1], classification [2] and dimensionality reduction [3]. GPs were first proposed in statistics by Tony O'Hagan [4] and they are well-known to the geostatistics community as kriging. However, due to their high computational complexity they did not become widely applied tools in machine learning until the early XXI century [5]. GPs can be interpreted as a family of kernel methods with the additional advantage of providing a full conditional statistical description for the predicted variable, which can be primarily used to establish confidence intervals and to set hyper-parameters. In a nutshell, Gaussian processes assume that a Gaussian process prior governs the set of possible latent functions (which are unobserved), and the likelihood (of the latent function) and observations shape this prior to produce posterior probabilistic estimates.

We consider constraint-based methods for causal structure learning, such as the PC-, FCI-, RFCI- and CCD- algorithms (Spirtes et al. (2000, 1993), Richardson (1996), Colombo et al. (2012), Claassen et al. (2013)). The first step of all these algorithms consists of the PC-algorithm. This algorithm is known to be order-dependent, in the sense that the output can depend on the order in which the variables are given. This order-dependence is a minor issue in low-dimensional settings. We show, however, that it can be very pronounced in high-dimensional settings, where it can lead to highly variable results. We propose several modifications of the PC-algorithm (and hence also of the other algorithms) that remove part or all of this order-dependence. All proposed modifications are consistent in high-dimensional settings under the same conditions as their original counterparts. We compare the PC-, FCI-, and RFCI-algorithms and their modifications in simulation studies and on a yeast gene expression data set. We show that our modifications yield similar performance in low-dimensional settings and improved performance in high-dimensional settings. All software is implemented in the R-package pcalg.

We present a comprehensive study of the use of generative modeling approaches for Multiple-Instance Learning (MIL) problems. In MIL a learner receives training instances grouped together into bags with labels for the bags only (which might not be correct for the comprised instances). Our work was motivated by the task of facilitating the diagnosis of neuromuscular disorders using sets of motor unit potential trains (MUPTs) detected within a muscle which can be cast as a MIL problem. Our approach leads to a state-of-the-art solution to the problem of muscle classification. By introducing and analyzing generative models for MIL in a general framework and examining a variety of model structures and components, our work also serves as a methodological guide to modelling MIL tasks. We evaluate our proposed methods both on MUPT datasets and on the MUSK1 dataset, one of the most widely used benchmarks for MIL.

We present a novel approach for constrained Bayesian inference. Unlike current methods, our approach does not require convexity of the constraint set. We reduce the constrained variational inference to a parametric optimization over the feasible set of densities and propose a general recipe for such problems. We apply the proposed constrained Bayesian inference approach to multitask learning subject to rank constraints on the weight matrix. Further, constrained parameter estimation is applied to recover the sparse conditional independence structure encoded by prior precision matrices. Our approach is motivated by reverse inference for high dimensional functional neuroimaging, a domain where the high dimensionality and small number of examples requires the use of constraints to ensure meaningful and effective models. For this application, we propose a model that jointly learns a weight matrix and the prior inverse covariance structure between different tasks. We present experimental validation showing that the proposed approach outperforms strong baseline models in terms of predictive performance and structure recovery.

We seek to learn an effective policy for a Markov Decision Process (MDP) with continuous states via Q-Learning. Given a set of basis functions over state action pairs we search for a corresponding set of linear weights that minimizes the mean Bellman residual. Our algorithm uses a Kalman filter model to estimate those weights and we have developed a simpler approximate Kalman filter model that outperforms the current state of the art projected TD-Learning methods on several standard benchmark problems.

We introduce a Deep Boltzmann Machine model suitable for modeling and extracting latent semantic representations from a large unstructured collection of documents. We overcome the apparent difficulty of training a DBM with judicious parameter tying. This parameter tying enables an efficient pretraining algorithm and a state initialization scheme that aids inference. The model can be trained just as efficiently as a standard Restricted Boltzmann Machine. Our experiments show that the model assigns better log probability to unseen data than the Replicated Softmax model. Features extracted from our model outperform LDA, Replicated Softmax, and DocNADE models on document retrieval and document classification tasks.

Hidden variables are ubiquitous in practical data analysis, and therefore modeling marginal densities and doing inference with the resulting models is an important problem in statistics, machine learning, and causal inference. Recently, a new type of graphical model, called the nested Markov model, was developed which captures equality constraints found in marginals of directed acyclic graph (DAG) models. Some of these constraints, such as the so called `Verma constraint', strictly generalize conditional independence. To make modeling and inference with nested Markov models practical, it is necessary to limit the number of parameters in the model, while still correctly capturing the constraints in the marginal of a DAG model. Placing such limits is similar in spirit to sparsity methods for undirected graphical models, and regression models. In this paper, we give a log-linear parameterization which allows sparse modeling with nested Markov models. We illustrate the advantages of this parameterization with a simulation study.

Semi-supervised clustering is the task of clustering data points into clusters where only a fraction of the points are labelled. The true number of clusters in the data is often unknown and most models require this parameter as an input. Dirichlet process mixture models are appealing as they can infer the number of clusters from the data. However, these models do not deal with high dimensional data well and can encounter difficulties in inference. We present a novel nonparameteric Bayesian kernel based method to cluster data points without the need to prespecify the number of clusters or to model complicated densities from which data points are assumed to be generated from. The key insight is to use determinants of submatrices of a kernel matrix as a measure of how close together a set of points are. We explore some theoretical properties of the model and derive a natural Gibbs based algorithm with MCMC hyperparameter learning. The model is implemented on a variety of synthetic and real world data sets.

We propose a probabilistic model to infer supervised latent variables in the Hamming space from observed data. Our model allows simultaneous inference of the number of binary latent variables, and their values. The latent variables preserve neighbourhood structure of the data in a sense that objects in the same semantic concept have similar latent values, and objects in different concepts have dissimilar latent values. We formulate the supervised infinite latent variable problem based on an intuitive principle of pulling objects together if they are of the same type, and pushing them apart if they are not. We then combine this principle with a flexible Indian Buffet Process prior on the latent variables. We show that the inferred supervised latent variables can be directly used to perform a nearest neighbour search for the purpose of retrieval. We introduce a new application of dynamically extending hash codes, and show how to effectively couple the structure of the hash codes with continuously growing structure of the neighbourhood preserving infinite latent feature space.

We propose a method for learning cyclic causal models from a combination of observational and interventional equilibrium data. Novel aspects of the proposed method are its ability to work with continuous data (without assuming linearity) and to deal with feedback loops. Within the context of biochemical reactions, we also propose a novel way of modeling interventions that modify the activity of compounds instead of their abundance. For computational reasons, we approximate the nonlinear causal mechanisms by (coupled) local linearizations, one for each experimental condition. We apply the method to reconstruct a cellular signaling network from the flow cytometry data measured by Sachs et al. (2005). We show that our method finds evidence in the data for feedback loops and that it gives a more accurate quantitative description of the data at comparable model complexity.