Designing a principled and effective algorithm for learning deep architectures is a challenging problem. The current approach involves two training phases: a fully unsupervised learning followed by a strongly discriminative optimization. We suggest a deep learning strategy that bridges the gap between the two phases, resulting in a three-phase learning procedure. We propose to implement the scheme using a method to regularize deep belief networks with top-down information. The network is constructed from building blocks of restricted Boltzmann machines learned by combining bottom-up and top-down sampled signals. A global optimization procedure that merges samples from a forward bottom-up pass and a top-down pass is used. Experiments on the MNIST dataset show improvements over the existing algorithms for deep belief networks. Object recognition results on the Caltech-101 dataset also yield competitive results.

Nonparametric estimation of the conditional distribution of a response given high-dimensional features is a challenging problem. It is important to allow not only the mean but also the variance and shape of the response density to change flexibly with features, which are massive-dimensional. We propose a multiscale dictionary learning model, which expresses the conditional response density as a convex combination of dictionary densities, with the densities used and their weights dependent on the path through a tree decomposition of the feature space. A fast graph partitioning algorithm is applied to obtain the tree decomposition, with Bayesian methods then used to adaptively prune and average over different sub-trees in a soft probabilistic manner. The algorithm scales efficiently to approximately one million features. State of the art predictive performance is demonstrated for toy examples and two neuroscience applications including up to a million features.

POMDPs provide a principled framework for planning under uncertainty, but are computationally intractable, due to the “curse of dimensionality” and the “curse of history”. This paper presents an online lookahead search algorithm that alleviates these difficulties by limiting the search to a set of sampled scenarios. The execution of all policies on the sampled scenarios is summarized using a Determinized Sparse Partially Observable Tree (DESPOT), which is a sparsely sampled belief tree. Our algorithm, named Regularized DESPOT (R-DESPOT), searches the DESPOT for a policy that optimally balances the size of the policy and the accuracy on its value estimate obtained through sampling. We give an output-sensitive performance bound for all policies derived from the DESPOT, and show that R-DESPOT works well if a small optimal policy exists. We also give an anytime approximation to R-DESPOT. Experiments show strong results, compared with two of the fastest online POMDP algorithms.

The estimation of dependencies between multiple variables is a central problem in the analysis of financial time series. A common approach is to express these dependencies in terms of a copula function. Typically the copula function is assumed to be constant but this may be innacurate when there are covariates that could have a large influence on the dependence structure of the data. To account for this, a Bayesian framework for the estimation of conditional copulas is proposed. In this framework the parameters of a copula are non-linearly related to some arbitrary conditioning variables. We evaluate the ability of our method to predict time-varying dependencies on several equities and currencies and observe consistent performance gains compared to static copula models and other time-varying copula methods.

We present SDA-Bayes, a framework for (S)treaming, (D)istributed, (A)synchronous computation of a Bayesian posterior. The framework makes streaming updates to the estimated posterior according to a user-specified approximation primitive function. We demonstrate the usefulness of our framework, with variational Bayes (VB) as the primitive, by fitting the latent Dirichlet allocation model to two large-scale document collections. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm over stochastic variational inference (SVI), both in the single-pass setting SVI was designed for and in the streaming setting, to which SVI does not apply.

Shannon's entropy is a basic quantity in information theory, and a fundamental building block for the analysis of neural codes. Estimating the entropy of a discrete distribution from samples is an important and difficult problem that has received considerable attention in statistics and theoretical neuroscience. However, neural responses have characteristic statistical structure that generic entropy estimators fail to exploit. For example, existing Bayesian entropy estimators make the naive assumption that all spike words are equally likely a priori, which makes for an inefficient allocation of prior probability mass in cases where spikes are sparse. Here we develop Bayesian estimators for the entropy of binary spike trains using priors designed to flexibly exploit the statistical structure of simultaneously-recorded spike responses. We define two prior distributions over spike words using mixtures of Dirichlet distributions centered on simple parametric models. The parametric model captures high-level statistical features of the data, such as the average spike count in a spike word, which allows the posterior over entropy to concentrate more rapidly than with standard estimators (e.g., in cases where the probability of spiking differs strongly from 0.5). Conversely, the Dirichlet distributions assign prior mass to distributions far from the parametric model, ensuring consistent estimates for arbitrary distributions. We devise a compact representation of the data and prior that allow for computationally efficient implementations of Bayesian least squares and empirical Bayes entropy estimators with large numbers of neurons. We apply these estimators to simulated and real neural data and show that they substantially outperform traditional methods.

The Markov chain is a convenient tool to represent the dynamics of complex systems such as traffic and social systems, where probabilistic transition takes place between internal states. A Markov chain is characterized by initial-state probabilities and a state-transition probability matrix. In the traditional setting, a major goal is to figure out properties of a Markov chain when those probabilities are known. This paper tackles an inverse version of the problem: we find those probabilities from partial observations at a limited number of states. The observations include the frequency of visiting a state and the rate of reaching a state from another. Practical examples of this task include traffic monitoring systems in cities, where we need to infer the traffic volume on every single link on a road network from a very limited number of observation points. We formulate this task as a regularized optimization problem for probability functions, which is efficiently solved using the notion of natural gradient. Using synthetic and real-world data sets including city traffic monitoring data, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Monte-Carlo tree search is drawing great interest in the domain of planning under uncertainty, particularly when little or no domain knowledge is available. One of the central problems is the trade-off between exploration and exploitation. In this paper we present a novel Bayesian mixture modelling and inference based Thompson sampling approach to addressing this dilemma. The proposed Dirichlet-NormalGamma MCTS (DNG-MCTS) algorithm represents the uncertainty of the accumulated reward for actions in the MCTS search tree as a mixture of Normal distributions and inferences on it in Bayesian settings by choosing conjugate priors in the form of combinations of Dirichlet and NormalGamma distributions. Thompson sampling is used to select the best action at each decision node. Experimental results show that our proposed algorithm has achieved the state-of-the-art comparing with popular UCT algorithm in the context of online planning for general Markov decision processes.

We study the problem of online learning in finite episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs)where the loss function is allowed to change between episodes. The natural performance measure in this learning problem is the regret defined as the difference between the total loss of the best stationary policy and the total loss suffered by the learner. We assume that the learner is given access to a finite action space A and the state space X has a layered structure with L layers, so that state transitions are only possible between consecutive layers. We describe a variant of the recently proposed Relative Entropy Policy Search algorithm and show that its regret after T episodes is 2 L X A T log( X A /L) in the bandit setting and 2L T log( X A /L) in the full information setting, given that the learner has perfect knowledge of the transition probabilities of the underlying MDP. These guarantees largely improve previously known results under much milder assumptions andcannot be significantly improved under general assumptions.

Typical blur from camera shake often deviates from the standard uniform convolutional assumption, in part because of problematic rotations which create greater blurring away from some unknown center point. Consequently, successful blind deconvolution for removing shake artifacts requires the estimation of a spatially-varying or non-uniform blur operator. Using ideas from Bayesian inference and convex analysis, this paper derives a non-uniform blind deblurring algorithm with several desirable, yet previously-unexplored attributes. The underlying objective function includes a spatially-adaptive penalty that couples the latent sharp image, non-uniform blur operator, and noise level together. This coupling allows the penalty to automatically adjust its shape based on the estimated degree of local blur and image structure such that regions with large blur or few prominent edges are discounted. Remaining regions with modest blur and revealing edges therefore dominate the overall estimation process without explicitly incorporating structure-selection heuristics. The algorithm can be implemented using an optimization strategy that is virtually parameter free and simpler than existing methods. Detailed theoretical analysis and empirical validation on real images serve to validate the proposed method.