Contrastive Divergence (CD) and Persistent Contrastive Divergence (PCD) are popular methods for training the weights of Restricted Boltzmann Machines. However, both methods use an approximate method for sampling from the model distribution. As a side effect, these approximations yield significantly different biases and variances for stochastic gradient estimates of individual data points. It is well known that CD yields a biased gradient estimate. In this paper we however show empirically that CD has a lower stochastic gradient estimate variance than exact sampling, while the mean of subsequent PCD estimates has a higher variance than exact sampling. The results give one explanation to the finding that CD can be used with smaller minibatches or higher learning rates than PCD.

Can we make Bayesian posterior MCMC sampling more efficient when faced with very large datasets? We argue that computing the likelihood for N datapoints in the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) test to reach a single binary decision is computationally inefficient. We introduce an approximate MH rule based on a sequential hypothesis test that allows us to accept or reject samples with high confidence using only a fraction of the data required for the exact MH rule. While this method introduces an asymptotic bias, we show that this bias can be controlled and is more than offset by a decrease in variance due to our ability to draw more samples per unit of time.

Score calibration enables automatic speaker recognizers to make cost-effective accept / reject decisions. Traditional calibration requires supervised data, which is an expensive resource. We propose a 2-component GMM for unsupervised calibration and demonstrate good performance relative to a supervised baseline on NIST SRE'10 and SRE'12. A Bayesian analysis demonstrates that the uncertainty associated with the unsupervised calibration parameter estimates is surprisingly small.

The law of total probability may be deployed in binary classification exercises to estimate the unconditional class probabilities if the class proportions in the training set are not representative of the population class proportions. We argue that this is not a conceptually sound approach and suggest an alternative based on the new law of total odds. We quantify the bias of the total probability estimator of the unconditional class probabilities and show that the total odds estimator is unbiased. The sample version of the total odds estimator is shown to coincide with a maximum-likelihood estimator known from the literature. The law of total odds can also be used for transforming the conditional class probabilities if independent estimates of the unconditional class probabilities of the population are available. Keywords: Total probability, likelihood ratio, Bayes' formula, binary classification, relative odds, unbiased estimator, supervised learning, dataset shift.

We present a formal model of human decision-making in explore-exploit tasks using the context of multi-armed bandit problems, where the decision-maker must choose among multiple options with uncertain rewards. We address the standard multi-armed bandit problem, the multi-armed bandit problem with transition costs, and the multi-armed bandit problem on graphs. We focus on the case of Gaussian rewards in a setting where the decision-maker uses Bayesian inference to estimate the reward values. We model the decision-maker's prior knowledge with the Bayesian prior on the mean reward. We develop the upper credible limit (UCL) algorithm for the standard multi-armed bandit problem and show that this deterministic algorithm achieves logarithmic cumulative expected regret, which is optimal performance for uninformative priors. We show how good priors and good assumptions on the correlation structure among arms can greatly enhance decision-making performance, even over short time horizons. We extend to the stochastic UCL algorithm and draw several connections to human decision-making behavior. We present empirical data from human experiments and show that human performance is efficiently captured by the stochastic UCL algorithm with appropriate parameters. For the multi-armed bandit problem with transition costs and the multi-armed bandit problem on graphs, we generalize the UCL algorithm to the block UCL algorithm and the graphical block UCL algorithm, respectively. We show that these algorithms also achieve logarithmic cumulative expected regret and require a sub-logarithmic expected number of transitions among arms. We further illustrate the performance of these algorithms with numerical examples.

The potential of recovering the topology of a grid using solely publicly available market data is explored here. In contemporary whole-sale electricity markets, real-time prices are typically determined by solving the network-constrained economic dispatch problem. Under a linear DC model, locational marginal prices (LMPs) correspond to the Lagrange multipliers of the linear program involved. The interesting observation here is that the matrix of spatiotemporally varying LMPs exhibits the following property: Once premultiplied by the weighted grid Laplacian, it yields a low-rank and sparse matrix. Leveraging this rich structure, a regularized maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is developed to recover the grid Laplacian from the LMPs. The convex optimization problem formulated includes low rank- and sparsity-promoting regularizers, and it is solved using a scalable algorithm. Numerical tests on prices generated for the IEEE 14-bus benchmark provide encouraging topology recovery results.

The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function parameters are usually learned using maximum likelihood, which can lead to overfitting. To address these problems we introduce a novel model for time-changing variances using Gaussian Processes. A Gaussian Process (GP) defines a distribution over functions, which allows us to capture highly flexible functional relationships for the variances. In addition, we develop an online algorithm to perform inference. The algorithm has two main advantages. First, it takes a Bayesian approach, thereby avoiding overfitting. Second, it is much quicker than current offline inference procedures. Finally, our new model was evaluated on financial data and showed significant improvement in predictive performance over current standard models.

We present a method for incorporating missing data in non-parametric statistical learning without the need for imputation. We focus on a tree-based method, Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART), enhanced with "Missingness Incorporated in Attributes," an approach recently proposed incorporating missingness into decision trees (Twala, 2008). This procedure takes advantage of the partitioning mechanisms found in tree-based models. Simulations on generated models and real data indicate that our proposed method can forecast well on complicated missing-at-random and not-missing-at-random models as well as models where missingness itself influences the response. Our procedure has higher predictive performance and is more stable than competitors in many cases. We also illustrate BART's abilities to incorporate missingness into uncertainty intervals and to detect the influence of missingness on the model fit.

We describe a probabilistic framework for synthesizing control policies for general multi-robot systems, given environment and sensor models and a cost function. Decentralized, partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs) are a general model of decision processes where a team of agents must cooperate to optimize some objective (specified by a shared reward or cost function) in the presence of uncertainty, but where communication limitations mean that the agents cannot share their state, so execution must proceed in a decentralized fashion. While Dec-POMDPs are typically intractable to solve for real-world problems, recent research on the use of macro-actions in Dec-POMDPs has significantly increased the size of problem that can be practically solved as a Dec-POMDP. We describe this general model, and show how, in contrast to most existing methods that are specialized to a particular problem class, it can synthesize control policies that use whatever opportunities for coordination are present in the problem, while balancing off uncertainty in outcomes, sensor information, and information about other agents. We use three variations on a warehouse task to show that a single planner of this type can generate cooperative behavior using task allocation, direct communication, and signaling, as appropriate.

Existing Bayesian models, especially nonparametric Bayesian methods, rely on specially conceived priors to incorporate domain knowledge for discovering improved latent representations. While priors can affect posterior distributions through Bayes' rule, imposing posterior regularization is arguably more direct and in some cases more natural and general. In this paper, we present regularized Bayesian inference (RegBayes), a novel computational framework that performs posterior inference with a regularization term on the desired post-data posterior distribution under an information theoretical formulation. RegBayes is more flexible than the procedure that elicits expert knowledge via priors, and it covers both directed Bayesian networks and undirected Markov networks whose Bayesian formulation results in hybrid chain graph models. When the regularization is induced from a linear operator on the posterior distributions, such as the expectation operator, we present a general convex-analysis theorem to characterize the solution of RegBayes. Furthermore, we present two concrete examples of RegBayes, infinite latent support vector machines (iLSVM) and multi-task infinite latent support vector machines (MT-iLSVM), which explore the large-margin idea in combination with a nonparametric Bayesian model for discovering predictive latent features for classification and multi-task learning, respectively. We present efficient inference methods and report empirical studies on several benchmark datasets, which appear to demonstrate the merits inherited from both large-margin learning and Bayesian nonparametrics. Such results were not available until now, and contribute to push forward the interface between these two important subfields, which have been largely treated as isolated in the community.