Coordination of distributed agents is required for problems arising in many areas, including multi-robot systems, networking and e-commerce. As a formal framework for such problems, we use the decentralized partially observable Markov decision process (DEC-POMDP). Though much work has been done on optimal dynamic programming algorithms for the single-agent version of the problem, optimal algorithms for the multiagent case have been elusive. The main contribution of this paper is an optimal policy iteration algorithm for solving DEC-POMDPs. The algorithm uses stochastic finite-state controllers to represent policies. The solution can include a correlation device, which allows agents to correlate their actions without communicating. This approach alternates between expanding the controller and performing value-preserving transformations, which modify the controller without sacrificing value. We present two efficient value-preserving transformations: one can reduce the size of the controller and the other can improve its value while keeping the size fixed. Empirical results demonstrate the usefulness of value-preserving transformations in increasing value while keeping controller size to a minimum. To broaden the applicability of the approach, we also present a heuristic version of the policy iteration algorithm, which sacrifices convergence to optimality. This algorithm further reduces the size of the controllers at each step by assuming that probability distributions over the other agents actions are known. While this assumption may not hold in general, it helps produce higher quality solutions in our test problems.

Inference in Bayes Nets (BAYES) is an important problem with numerous applications in probabilistic reasoning. Counting the number of satisfying assignments of a propositional formula (#SAT) is a closely related problem of fundamental theoretical importance. Both these problems, and others, are members of the class of sum-of-products (SUMPROD) problems. In this paper we show that standard backtracking search when augmented with a simple memoization scheme (caching) can solve any sum-of-products problem with time complexity that is at least as good any other state-of-the-art exact algorithm, and that it can also achieve the best known time-space tradeoff. Furthermore, backtracking's ability to utilize more flexible variable orderings allows us to prove that it can achieve an exponential speedup over other standard algorithms for SUMPROD on some instances. The ideas presented here have been utilized in a number of solvers that have been applied to various types of sum-of-product problems. These system's have exploited the fact that backtracking can naturally exploit more of the problem's structure to achieve improved performance on a range of probleminstances. Empirical evidence of this performance gain has appeared in published works describing these solvers, and we provide references to these works.

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a principled framework for sequential planning in uncertain single agent settings. An extension of POMDPs to multiagent settings, called interactive POMDPs (I-POMDPs), replaces POMDP belief spaces with interactive hierarchical belief systems which represent an agent's belief about the physical world, about beliefs of other agents, and about their beliefs about others' beliefs. This modification makes the difficulties of obtaining solutions due to complexity of the belief and policy spaces even more acute. We describe a general method for obtaining approximate solutions of I-POMDPs based on particle filtering (PF). We introduce the interactive PF, which descends the levels of the interactive belief hierarchies and samples and propagates beliefs at each level. The interactive PF is able to mitigate the belief space complexity, but it does not address the policy space complexity. To mitigate the policy space complexity -- sometimes also called the curse of history -- we utilize a complementary method based on sampling likely observations while building the look ahead reachability tree. While this approach does not completely address the curse of history, it beats back the curse's impact substantially. We provide experimental results and chart future work.

Accurate calibration of probabilistic predictive models learned is critical for many practical prediction and decision-making tasks. There are two main categories of methods for building calibrated classifiers. One approach is to develop methods for learning probabilistic models that are well-calibrated, ab initio. The other approach is to use some post-processing methods for transforming the output of a classifier to be well calibrated, as for example histogram binning, Platt scaling, and isotonic regression. One advantage of the post-processing approach is that it can be applied to any existing probabilistic classification model that was constructed using any machine-learning method. In this paper, we first introduce two measures for evaluating how well a classifier is calibrated. We prove three theorems showing that using a simple histogram binning post-processing method, it is possible to make a classifier be well calibrated while retaining its discrimination capability. Also, by casting the histogram binning method as a density-based non-parametric binary classifier, we can extend it using two simple non-parametric density estimation methods. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed calibration methods on synthetic and real datasets. Experimental results show that the proposed methods either outperform or are comparable to existing calibration methods.

In this survey, we present and compare different approaches to estimate Mutual Information (MI) from data to analyse general dependencies between variables of interest in a system. We demonstrate the performance difference of MI versus correlation analysis, which is only optimal in case of linear dependencies. First, we use a piece-wise constant Bayesian methodology using a general Dirichlet prior. In this estimation method, we use a two-stage approach where we approximate the probability distribution first and then calculate the marginal and joint entropies. Here, we demonstrate the performance of this Bayesian approach versus the others for computing the dependency between different variables. We also compare these with linear correlation analysis. Finally, we apply MI and correlation analysis to the identification of the bias in the determination of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) by the satellite based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the ground based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). Here, we observe that the AOD measurements by these two instruments might be different for the same location. The reason of this bias is explored by quantifying the dependencies between the bias and 15 other variables including cloud cover, surface reflectivity and others.

We present exact algorithms for identifying deterministic-actions effects and preconditions in dynamic partially observable domains. They apply when one does not know the action model(the way actions affect the world) of a domain and must learn it from partial observations over time. Such scenarios are common in real world applications. They are challenging for AI tasks because traditional domain structures that underly tractability (e.g., conditional independence) fail there (e.g., world features become correlated). Our work departs from traditional assumptions about partial observations and action models. In particular, it focuses on problems in which actions are deterministic of simple logical structure and observation models have all features observed with some frequency. We yield tractable algorithms for the modified problem for such domains. Our algorithms take sequences of partial observations over time as input, and output deterministic action models that could have lead to those observations. The algorithms output all or one of those models (depending on our choice), and are exact in that no model is misclassified given the observations. Our algorithms take polynomial time in the number of time steps and state features for some traditional action classes examined in the AI-planning literature, e.g., STRIPS actions. In contrast, traditional approaches for HMMs and Reinforcement Learning are inexact and exponentially intractable for such domains. Our experiments verify the theoretical tractability guarantees, and show that we identify action models exactly. Several applications in planning, autonomous exploration, and adventure-game playing already use these results. They are also promising for probabilistic settings, partially observable reinforcement learning, and diagnosis.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) provide a rich framework for sequential decision-making under uncertainty in stochastic domains. However, solving a POMDP is often intractable except for small problems due to their complexity. Here, we focus on online approaches that alleviate the computational complexity by computing good local policies at each decision step during the execution. Online algorithms generally consist of a lookahead search to find the best action to execute at each time step in an environment. Our objectives here are to survey the various existing online POMDP methods, analyze their properties and discuss their advantages and disadvantages; and to thoroughly evaluate these online approaches in different environments under various metrics (return, error bound reduction, lower bound improvement). Our experimental results indicate that state-of-the-art online heuristic search methods can handle large POMDP domains efficiently.

This paper proposes and experimentally validates a Bayesian network model of a range finder adapted to dynamic environments. All modeling assumptions are rigorously explained, and all model parameters have a physical interpretation. This approach results in a transparent and intuitive model. With respect to the state of the art beam model this paper: (i) proposes a different functional form for the probability of range measurements caused by unmodeled objects, (ii) intuitively explains the discontinuity encountered in te state of the art beam model, and (iii) reduces the number of model parameters, while maintaining the same representational power for experimental data. The proposed beam model is called RBBM, short for Rigorously Bayesian Beam Model. A maximum likelihood and a variational Bayesian estimator (both based on expectation-maximization) are proposed to learn the model parameters. Furthermore, the RBBM is extended to a full scan model in two steps: first, to a full scan model for static environments and next, to a full scan model for general, dynamic environments. The full scan model accounts for the dependency between beams and adapts to the local sample density when using a particle filter. In contrast to Gaussian-based state of the art models, the proposed full scan model uses a sample-based approximation. This sample-based approximation enables handling dynamic environments and capturing multi-modality, which occurs even in simple static environments.

This paper presents Networks of Influence Diagrams (NID), a compact, natural and highly expressive language for reasoning about agents' beliefs and decision-making processes. NIDs are graphical structures in which agents' mental models are represented as nodes in a network; a mental model for an agent may itself use descriptions of the mental models of other agents. NIDs are demonstrated by examples, showing how they can be used to describe conflicting and cyclic belief structures, and certain forms of bounded rationality. In an opponent modeling domain, NIDs were able to outperform other computational agents whose strategies were not known in advance. NIDs are equivalent in representation to Bayesian games but they are more compact and structured than this formalism. In particular, the equilibrium definition for NIDs makes an explicit distinction between agents' optimal strategies, and how they actually behave in reality.

A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning models are used in decision analysis. This paper presents two new non-parametric methods for calibrating outputs of binary classification models: a method based on the Bayes optimal selection and a method based on the Bayesian model averaging. The advantage of these methods is that they are independent of the algorithm used to learn a predictive model, and they can be applied in a post-processing step, after the model is learned. This makes them applicable to a wide variety of machine learning models and methods. These calibration methods, as well as other methods, are tested on a variety of datasets in terms of both discrimination and calibration performance. The results show the methods either outperform or are comparable in performance to the state-of-the-art calibration methods.