Modern data acquisition routinely produces massive amounts of high dimensional data with complex statistical dependency structures. Latent variable graphical models provide a succinct representation of such complex dependency structures by relating the observed variables to a set of latent ones. By defining a joint distribution over observed and latent variables, the marginal distribution of the observed variables can be obtained by integrating out the latent ones. This allows complex distributions over observed variables (e.g., clique models) to be expressed in terms of more tractable joint models (e.g., tree models) over the augmented variable space. Probabilistic graphical models with latent variables have been deployed successfully to a diverse range of problems such as in document analysis (Blei et al., 2002), social network modeling (Hoff et al., 2002), speech recognition (Rabiner and Juang, 1986) and bioinformatics (Clark, 1990). In this paper, we focus on latent variable models where the latent structures are trees (we call it a "latent tree" for short).

The survey propagation (SP) algorithm has been shown to work well on large instances of the random 3-SAT problem near its phase transition. It was shown that SP estimates marginals over covers that represent clusters of solutions. The SP-y algorithm generalizes SP to work on the maximum satisfiability (Max-SAT) problem, but the cover interpretation of SP does not generalize to SP-y. In this paper, we formulate the relaxed survey propagation (RSP) algorithm, which extends the SP algorithm to apply to the weighted Max-SAT problem. We show that RSP has an interpretation of estimating marginals over covers violating a set of clauses with minimal weight. This naturally generalizes the cover interpretation of SP. Empirically, we show that RSP outperforms SP-y and other state-of-the-art Max-SAT solvers on random Max-SAT instances. RSP also outperforms state-of-the-art weighted Max-SAT solvers on random weighted Max-SAT instances.

The paper investigates parameterized approximate message-passing schemes that are based on bounded inference and are inspired by Pearl's belief propagation algorithm (BP). We start with the bounded inference mini-clustering algorithm and then move to the iterative scheme called Iterative Join-Graph Propagation (IJGP), that combines both iteration and bounded inference. Algorithm IJGP belongs to the class of Generalized Belief Propagation algorithms, a framework that allowed connections with approximate algorithms from statistical physics and is shown empirically to surpass the performance of mini-clustering and belief propagation, as well as a number of other state-of-the-art algorithms on several classes of networks. We also provide insight into the accuracy of iterative BP and IJGP by relating these algorithms to well known classes of constraint propagation schemes.

Decentralized planning in uncertain environments is a complex task generally dealt with by using a decision-theoretic approach, mainly through the framework of Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (DEC-POMDPs). Although DEC-POMDPS are a general and powerful modeling tool, solving them is a task with an overwhelming complexity that can be doubly exponential. In this paper, we study an alternate formulation of DEC-POMDPs relying on a sequence-form representation of policies. From this formulation, we show how to derive Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) problems that, once solved, give exact optimal solutions to the DEC-POMDPs. We show that these MILPs can be derived either by using some combinatorial characteristics of the optimal solutions of the DEC-POMDPs or by using concepts borrowed from game theory. Through an experimental validation on classical test problems from the DEC-POMDP literature, we compare our approach to existing algorithms. Results show that mathematical programming outperforms dynamic programming but is less efficient than forward search, except for some particular problems. The main contributions of this work are the use of mathematical programming for DEC-POMDPs and a better understanding of DEC-POMDPs and of their solutions. Besides, we argue that our alternate representation of DEC-POMDPs could be helpful for designing novel algorithms looking for approximate solutions to DEC-POMDPs.

Deciding how to act in partially observable environments remains an active area of research. Identifying good sequences of decisions is particularly challenging when good control performance requires planning multiple steps into the future in domains with many states. Towards addressing this challenge, we present an online, forward-search algorithm called the Posterior Belief Distribution (PBD). PBD leverages a novel method for calculating the posterior distribution over beliefs that result after a sequence of actions is taken, given the set of observation sequences that could be received during this process. This method allows us to efficiently evaluate the expected reward of a sequence of primitive actions, which we refer to as macro-actions. We present a formal analysis of our approach, and examine its performance on two very large simulation experiments: scientific exploration and a target monitoring domain. We also demonstrate our algorithm being used to control a real robotic helicopter in a target monitoring experiment, which suggests that our approach has practical potential for planning in real-world, large partially observable domains where a multi-step lookahead is required to achieve good performance.

We present two algorithms for learning the structure of a Markov network from data: GSMN* and GSIMN. Both algorithms use statistical independence tests to infer the structure by successively constraining the set of structures consistent with the results of these tests. Until very recently, algorithms for structure learning were based on maximum likelihood estimation, which has been proved to be NP-hard for Markov networks due to the difficulty of estimating the parameters of the network, needed for the computation of the data likelihood. The independence-based approach does not require the computation of the likelihood, and thus both GSMN* and GSIMN can compute the structure efficiently (as shown in our experiments). GSMN* is an adaptation of the Grow-Shrink algorithm of Margaritis and Thrun for learning the structure of Bayesian networks. GSIMN extends GSMN* by additionally exploiting Pearls well-known properties of the conditional independence relation to infer novel independences from known ones, thus avoiding the performance of statistical tests to estimate them. To accomplish this efficiently GSIMN uses the Triangle theorem, also introduced in this work, which is a simplified version of the set of Markov axioms. Experimental comparisons on artificial and real-world data sets show GSIMN can yield significant savings with respect to GSMN*, while generating a Markov network with comparable or in some cases improved quality. We also compare GSIMN to a forward-chaining implementation, called GSIMN-FCH, that produces all possible conditional independences resulting from repeatedly applying Pearls theorems on the known conditional independence tests. The results of this comparison show that GSIMN, by the sole use of the Triangle theorem, is nearly optimal in terms of the set of independences tests that it infers.

Many real-world decision making tasks require us to choose among several expensive observations. In a sensor network, for example, it is important to select the subset of sensors that is expected to provide the strongest reduction in uncertainty. In medical decision making tasks, one needs to select which tests to administer before deciding on the most effective treatment. It has been general practice to use heuristic-guided procedures for selecting observations. In this paper, we present the first efficient optimal algorithms for selecting observations for a class of probabilistic graphical models. For example, our algorithms allow to optimally label hidden variables in Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). We provide results for both selecting the optimal subset of observations, and for obtaining an optimal conditional observation plan. Furthermore we prove a surprising result: In most graphical models tasks, if one designs an efficient algorithm for chain graphs, such as HMMs, this procedure can be generalized to polytree graphical models. We prove that the optimizing value of information is $NP^{PP}$-hard even for polytrees. It also follows from our results that just computing decision theoretic value of information objective functions, which are commonly used in practice, is a #P-complete problem even on Naive Bayes models (a simple special case of polytrees). In addition, we consider several extensions, such as using our algorithms for scheduling observation selection for multiple sensors. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on several real-world datasets, including a prototype sensor network deployment for energy conservation in buildings.

In this paper we formulate the problem of inference under incomplete information in very general terms. This includes modelling the process responsible for the incompleteness, which we call the incompleteness process. We allow the process behaviour to be partly unknown. Then we use Walleys theory of coherent lower previsions, a generalisation of the Bayesian theory to imprecision, to derive the rule to update beliefs under incompleteness that logically follows from our assumptions, and that we call conservative inference rule. This rule has some remarkable properties: it is an abstract rule to update beliefs that can be applied in any situation or domain; it gives us the opportunity to be neither too optimistic nor too pessimistic about the incompleteness process, which is a necessary condition to draw reliable while strong enough conclusions; and it is a coherent rule, in the sense that it cannot lead to inconsistencies. We give examples to show how the new rule can be applied in expert systems, in parametric statistical inference, and in pattern classification, and discuss more generally the view of incompleteness processes defended here as well as some of its consequences.

Bayesian networks are a useful tool in the representation of uncertain knowledge. This paper proposes a new algorithm called ACO-E, to learn the structure of a Bayesian network. It does this by conducting a search through the space of equivalence classes of Bayesian networks using Ant Colony Optimization (ACO). To this end, two novel extensions of traditional ACO techniques are proposed and implemented. Firstly, multiple types of moves are allowed. Secondly, moves can be given in terms of indices that are not based on construction graph nodes. The results of testing show that ACO-E performs better than a greedy search and other state-of-the-art and metaheuristic algorithms whilst searching in the space of equivalence classes.

Multiagent planning and coordination problems are common and known to be computationally hard. We show that a wide range of two-agent problems can be formulated as bilinear programs. We present a successive approximation algorithm that significantly outperforms the coverage set algorithm, which is the state-of-the-art method for this class of multiagent problems. Because the algorithm is formulated for bilinear programs, it is more general and simpler to implement. The new algorithm can be terminated at any time and-unlike the coverage set algorithm-it facilitates the derivation of a useful online performance bound. It is also much more efficient, on average reducing the computation time of the optimal solution by about four orders of magnitude. Finally, we introduce an automatic dimensionality reduction method that improves the effectiveness of the algorithm, extending its applicability to new domains and providing a new way to analyze a subclass of bilinear programs.