Methods for combining predictions from different models in a supervised learning setting must somehow estimate/predict the quality of a model's predictions at unknown future inputs. Many of these methods (often implicitly) make the assumption that the test inputs are identical to the training inputs, which is seldom reasonable. By failing to take into account that prediction will generally be harder for test inputs that did not occur in the training set, this leads to the selection of too complex models. Based on a novel, unbiased expression for KL divergence, we propose XAIC and its special case FAIC as versions of AIC intended for prediction that use different degrees of knowledge of the test inputs. Both methods substantially differ from and may outperform all the known versions of AIC even when the training and test inputs are iid, and are especially useful for deterministic inputs and under covariate shift. Our experiments on linear models suggest that if the test and training inputs differ substantially, then XAIC and FAIC predictively outperform AIC, BIC and several other methods including Bayesian model averaging.

Many tasks in human environments require performing a sequence of navigation and manipulation steps involving objects. In unstructured human environments, the location and configuration of the objects involved often change in unpredictable ways. This requires a high-level planning strategy that is robust and flexible in an uncertain environment. We propose a novel dynamic planning strategy, which can be trained from a set of example sequences. High level tasks are expressed as a sequence of primitive actions or controllers (with appropriate parameters). Our score function, based on Markov Random Field (MRF), captures the relations between environment, controllers, and their arguments. By expressing the environment using sets of attributes, the approach generalizes well to unseen scenarios. We train the parameters of our MRF using a maximum margin learning method. We provide a detailed empirical validation of our overall framework demonstrating successful plan strategies for a variety of tasks.

We reduce a broad class of machine learning problems, usually addressed by EM or sampling, to the problem of finding the $k$ extremal rays spanning the conical hull of a data point set. These $k$ "anchors" lead to a global solution and a more interpretable model that can even outperform EM and sampling on generalization error. To find the $k$ anchors, we propose a novel divide-and-conquer learning scheme "DCA" that distributes the problem to $\mathcal O(k\log k)$ same-type sub-problems on different low-D random hyperplanes, each can be solved by any solver. For the 2D sub-problem, we present a non-iterative solver that only needs to compute an array of cosine values and its max/min entries. DCA also provides a faster subroutine for other methods to check whether a point is covered in a conical hull, which improves algorithm design in multiple dimensions and brings significant speedup to learning. We apply our method to GMM, HMM, LDA, NMF and subspace clustering, then show its competitive performance and scalability over other methods on rich datasets.

We present results from a set of experiments in this pilot study to investigate the causal influence of user activity on various environmental parameters monitored by occupant carried multi-purpose sensors. Hypotheses with respect to each type of measurements are verified, including temperature, humidity, and light level collected during eight typical activities: sitting in lab / cubicle, indoor walking / running, resting after physical activity, climbing stairs, taking elevators, and outdoor walking. Our main contribution is the development of features for activity and location recognition based on environmental measurements, which exploit location- and activity-specific characteristics and capture the trends resulted from the underlying physiological process. The features are statistically shown to have good separability and are also information-rich. Fusing environmental sensing together with acceleration is shown to achieve classification accuracy as high as 99.13%. For building applications, this study motivates a sensor fusion paradigm for learning individualized activity, location, and environmental preferences for energy management and user comfort.

We study the problem of building generative models of natural source code (NSC); that is, source code written and understood by humans. Our primary contribution is to describe a family of generative models for NSC that have three key properties: First, they incorporate both sequential and hierarchical structure. Second, we learn a distributed representation of source code elements. Finally, they integrate closely with a compiler, which allows leveraging compiler logic and abstractions when building structure into the model. We also develop an extension that includes more complex structure, refining how the model generates identifier tokens based on what variables are currently in scope. Our models can be learned efficiently, and we show empirically that including appropriate structure greatly improves the models, measured by the probability of generating test programs.

Structured prediction is the problem of learning a function that maps structured inputs to structured outputs. Prototypical examples of structured prediction include part-of-speech tagging and semantic segmentation of images. Inspired by the recent successes of search-based structured prediction, we introduce a new framework for structured prediction called HC-Search. Given a structured input, the framework uses a search procedure guided by a learned heuristic H to uncover high quality candidate outputs and then employs a separate learned cost function C to select a final prediction among those outputs. The overall loss of this prediction architecture decomposes into the loss due to H not leading to high quality outputs, and the loss due to C not selecting the best among the generated outputs. Guided by this decomposition, we minimize the overall loss in a greedy stage-wise manner by first training H to quickly uncover high quality outputs via imitation learning, and then training C to correctly rank the outputs generated via H according to their true losses. Importantly, this training procedure is sensitive to the particular loss function of interest and the time-bound allowed for predictions. Experiments on several benchmark domains show that our approach significantly outperforms several state-of-the-art methods.

We analyze variational inference for highly symmetric graphical models such as those arising from first-order probabilistic models. We first show that for these graphical models, the tree-reweighted variational objective lends itself to a compact lifted formulation which can be solved much more efficiently than the standard TRW formulation for the ground graphical model. Compared to earlier work on lifted belief propagation, our formulation leads to a convex optimization problem for lifted marginal inference and provides an upper bound on the partition function. We provide two approaches for improving the lifted TRW upper bound. The first is a method for efficiently computing maximum spanning trees in highly symmetric graphs, which can be used to optimize the TRW edge appearance probabilities. The second is a method for tightening the relaxation of the marginal polytope using lifted cycle inequalities and novel exchangeable cluster consistency constraints.

Attacker-Defender Stackelberg security games (SSGs) have emerged as an important research area in multi-agent systems. However, existing SSGs models yield fixed, static, schedules which fail in dynamic domains where defenders face execution uncertainty, i.e., in domains where defenders may face unanticipated disruptions of their schedules. A concrete example is an application involving checking fares on trains, where a defender's schedule is frequently interrupted by fare evaders, making static schedules useless. To address this shortcoming, this paper provides four main contributions. First, we present a novel general Bayesian Stackelberg game model for security resource allocation in dynamic uncertain domains. In this new model, execution uncertainty is handled by using a Markov decision process (MDP) for generating defender policies. Second, we study the problem of computing a Stackelberg equilibrium for this game and exploit problem structure to reduce it to a polynomial-sized optimization problem. Shifting to evaluation, our third contribution shows, in simulation, that our MDP-based policies overcome the failures of previous SSG algorithms. In so doing, we can now build a complete system, that enables handling of schedule interruptions and, consequently, to conduct some of the first controlled experiments on SSGs in the field.

A method for authorship attribution based on function word adjacency networks (WANs) is introduced. Function words are parts of speech that express grammatical relationships between other words but do not carry lexical meaning on their own. In the WANs in this paper, nodes are function words and directed edges stand in for the likelihood of finding the sink word in the ordered vicinity of the source word. WANs of different authors can be interpreted as transition probabilities of a Markov chain and are therefore compared in terms of their relative entropies. Optimal selection of WAN parameters is studied and attribution accuracy is benchmarked across a diverse pool of authors and varying text lengths. This analysis shows that, since function words are independent of content, their use tends to be specific to an author and that the relational data captured by function WANs is a good summary of stylometric fingerprints. Attribution accuracy is observed to exceed the one achieved by methods that rely on word frequencies alone. Further combining WANs with methods that rely on word frequencies alone, results in larger attribution accuracy, indicating that both sources of information encode different aspects of authorial styles.

We study Bayesian optimal control of a general class of smoothly parameterized Markov decision problems. Since computing the optimal control is computationally expensive, we design an algorithm that trades off performance for computational efficiency. The algorithm is a lazy posterior sampling method that maintains a distribution over the unknown parameter. The algorithm changes its policy only when the variance of the distribution is reduced sufficiently. Importantly, we analyze the algorithm and show the precise nature of the performance vs. computation tradeoff. Finally, we show the effectiveness of the method on a web server control application.