An ideal crowdsourcing or citizen-science system would route tasks to the most appropriate workers, but the best assignment is unclear because workers have varying skill, tasks have varying difficulty, and assigning several workers to a single task may significantly improve output quality. This paper defines a space of task routing problems, proves that even the simplest is NP-hard, and develops several approximation algorithms for parallel routing problems. We show that an intuitive class of requesters' utility functions is submodular, which lets us provide iterative methods for dynamically allocating batches of tasks that make near-optimal use of available workers in each round. Experiments with live oDesk workers show that our task routing algorithm uses only 48% of the human labor compared to the commonly used round-robin strategy. Further, we provide versions of our task routing algorithm which enable it to scale to large numbers of workers and questions and to handle workers with variable response times while still providing significant benefit over common baselines.

While temporal behavioral patterns can be discerned to underlie real crowd work, prior studies have typically modeled worker performance under a simplified i.i.d. assumption. To better model such temporal worker behavior, we propose a time-series label prediction model for crowd work. This latent variable model captures and summarizes past worker behavior, enabling us to better predict the quality of each worker's next label. Given inherent uncertainty in prediction, we also investigate a decision reject option to balance the tradeoff between prediction accuracy vs. coverage. Results show our model improves accuracy of both label prediction on real crowd worker data, as well as data quality overall.

Task starvation leads to huge variation in the completion times of the tasks posted on to the crowd. The price offered to a given task together with the dynamics of the crowd at the time of posting affect its completion time. Large organizations/requesters who frequent the crowd at regular intervals in order to get their tasks done desire predictability in completion times of the tasks. Thus, such requesters have to take into account the crowd dynamics at the time of posting the tasks and price them accordingly. In this work, we study an instance of the pricing problem and propose a solution based on the framework of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs).

Dropout training, originally designed for deep neural networks, has been successful on high-dimensional single-layer natural language tasks. This paper proposes a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon: we show that, under a generative Poisson topic model with long documents, dropout training improves the exponent in the generalization bound for empirical risk minimization. Dropout achieves this gain much like a marathon runner who practices at altitude: once a classifier learns to perform reasonably well on training examples that have been artificially corrupted by dropout, it will do very well on the uncorrupted test set. We also show that, under similar conditions, dropout preserves the Bayes decision boundary and should therefore induce minimal bias in high dimensions.

We consider the problem of learning to optimize an unknown Markov decision process (MDP). We show that, if the MDP can be parameterized within some known function class, we can obtain regret bounds that scale with the dimensionality, rather than cardinality, of the system. We characterize this dependence explicitly as $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{d_K d_E T})$ where $T$ is time elapsed, $d_K$ is the Kolmogorov dimension and $d_E$ is the \emph{eluder dimension}. These represent the first unified regret bounds for model-based reinforcement learning and provide state of the art guarantees in several important settings. Moreover, we present a simple and computationally efficient algorithm \emph{posterior sampling for reinforcement learning} (PSRL) that satisfies these bounds.

In various situations one is given only the predictions of multiple classifiers over a large unlabeled test data. This scenario raises the following questions: Without any labeled data and without any a-priori knowledge about the reliability of these different classifiers, is it possible to consistently and computationally efficiently estimate their accuracies? Furthermore, also in a completely unsupervised manner, can one construct a more accurate unsupervised ensemble classifier? In this paper, focusing on the binary case, we present simple, computationally efficient algorithms to solve these questions. Furthermore, under standard classifier independence assumptions, we prove our methods are consistent and study their asymptotic error. Our approach is spectral, based on the fact that the off-diagonal entries of the classifiers' covariance matrix and 3-d tensor are rank-one. We illustrate the competitive performance of our algorithms via extensive experiments on both artificial and real datasets.

One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been adjusted for. We introduce a novel approach for estimating causal effects that exploits observational conditional independencies to suggest "weak" paths in a unknown causal graph. The widely used faithfulness condition of Spirtes et al. is relaxed to allow for varying degrees of "path cancellations" that imply conditional independencies but do not rule out the existence of confounding causal paths. The outcome is a posterior distribution over bounds on the average causal effect via a linear programming approach and Bayesian inference. We claim this approach should be used in regular practice along with other default tools in observational studies.

We introduce a method to learn a hierarchy of successively more abstract representations of complex data based on optimizing an information-theoretic objective. Intuitively, the optimization searches for a set of latent factors that best explain the correlations in the data as measured by multivariate mutual information. The method is unsupervised, requires no model assumptions, and scales linearly with the number of variables which makes it an attractive approach for very high dimensional systems. We demonstrate that Correlation Explanation (CorEx) automatically discovers meaningful structure for data from diverse sources including personality tests, DNA, and human language.

Liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry, also known as shotgun proteomics, is a widely-used high-throughput technology for identifying proteins in complex biological samples. Analysis of the tens of thousands of fragmentation spectra produced by a typical shotgun proteomics experiment begins by assigning to each observed spectrum the peptide hypothesized to be responsible for generating the spectrum, typically done by searching each spectrum against a database of peptides. We have recently described a machine learning method---Dynamic Bayesian Network for Rapid Identification of Peptides (DRIP)---that not only achieves state-of-the-art spectrum identification performance on a variety of datasets but also provides a trainable model capable of returning valuable auxiliary information regarding specific peptide-spectrum matches. In this work, we present two significant improvements to DRIP. First, we describe how to use word lattices, which are widely used in natural language processing, to significantly speed up DRIP's computations. To our knowledge, all existing shotgun proteomics search engines compute independent scores between a given observed spectrum and each possible candidate peptide from the database. The key idea of the word lattice is to represent the set of candidate peptides in a single data structure, thereby allowing sharing of redundant computations among the different candidates. We demonstrate that using lattices in conjunction with DRIP leads to speedups on the order of tens across yeast and worm data sets. Second, we introduce a variant of DRIP that uses a discriminative training framework, performing maximum mutual entropy estimation rather than maximum likelihood estimation. This modification improves DRIP's statistical power, enabling us to increase the number of identified spectrum at a 1% false discovery rate on yeast and worm data sets.

We demonstrate that there is significant redundancy in the parameterization of several deep learning models. Given only a few weight values for each feature it is possible to accurately predict the remaining values. Moreover, we show that not only can the parameter values be predicted, but many of them need not be learned at all. We train several different architectures by learning only a small number of weights and predicting the rest. In the best case we are able to predict more than 95% of the weights of a network without any drop in accuracy.