Data association, the problem of reasoning over correspondence between targets and measurements, is a fundamental problem in tracking. This paper presents a graphical model formulation of data association and applies an approximate inference method, belief propagation (BP), to obtain estimates of marginal association probabilities. We prove that BP is guaranteed to converge, and bound the number of iterations necessary. Experiments reveal a favourable comparison to prior methods in terms of accuracy and computational complexity.

Model-based methods and deep neural networks have both been tremendously successful paradigms in machine learning. In model-based methods, problem domain knowledge can be built into the constraints of the model, typically at the expense of difficulties during inference. In contrast, deterministic deep neural networks are constructed in such a way that inference is straightforward, but their architectures are generic and it is unclear how to incorporate knowledge. This work aims to obtain the advantages of both approaches. To do so, we start with a model-based approach and an associated inference algorithm, and \emph{unfold} the inference iterations as layers in a deep network. Rather than optimizing the original model, we \emph{untie} the model parameters across layers, in order to create a more powerful network. The resulting architecture can be trained discriminatively to perform accurate inference within a fixed network size. We show how this framework allows us to interpret conventional networks as mean-field inference in Markov random fields, and to obtain new architectures by instead using belief propagation as the inference algorithm. We then show its application to a non-negative matrix factorization model that incorporates the problem-domain knowledge that sound sources are additive. Deep unfolding of this model yields a new kind of non-negative deep neural network, that can be trained using a multiplicative backpropagation-style update algorithm. We present speech enhancement experiments showing that our approach is competitive with conventional neural networks despite using far fewer parameters.

Computational intensity and sequential nature of estimation techniques for Bayesian methods in statistics and machine learning, combined with their increasing applications for big data analytics, necessitate both the identification of potential opportunities to parallelize techniques such as MCMC sampling, and the development of general strategies for mapping such parallel algorithms to modern CPUs in order to elicit the performance up the compute-based and/or memory-based hardware limits. Two opportunities for Single-Instruction Multiple-Data (SIMD) parallelization of MCMC sampling for probabilistic graphical models are presented. In exchangeable models with many observations such as Bayesian Generalized Linear Models, child-node contributions to the conditional posterior of each node can be calculated concurrently. In undirected graphs with discrete nodes, concurrent sampling of conditionally-independent nodes can be transformed into a SIMD form. High-performance libraries with multi-threading and vectorization capabilities can be readily applied to such SIMD opportunities to gain decent speedup, while a series of high-level source-code and runtime modifications provide further performance boost by reducing parallelization overhead and increasing data locality for NUMA architectures. For big-data Bayesian GLM graphs, the end-result is a routine for evaluating the conditional posterior and its gradient vector that is 5 times faster than a naive implementation using (built-in) multi-threaded Intel MKL BLAS, and reaches within the striking distance of the memory-bandwidth-induced hardware limit. The proposed optimization strategies improve the scaling of performance with number of cores and width of vector units (applicable to many-core SIMD processors such as Intel Xeon Phi and GPUs), resulting in cost-effectiveness, energy efficiency, and higher speed on multi-core x86 processors.

In this article, we derive a new stepsize adaptation for the normalized least mean square algorithm (NLMS) by describing the task of linear acoustic echo cancellation from a Bayesian network perspective. Similar to the well-known Kalman filter equations, we model the acoustic wave propagation from the loudspeaker to the microphone by a latent state vector and define a linear observation equation (to model the relation between the state vector and the observation) as well as a linear process equation (to model the temporal progress of the state vector). Based on additional assumptions on the statistics of the random variables in observation and process equation, we apply the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to derive an NLMS-like filter adaptation. By exploiting the conditional independence rules for Bayesian networks, we reveal that the resulting EM-NLMS algorithm has a stepsize update equivalent to the optimal-stepsize calculation proposed by Yamamoto and Kitayama in 1982, which has been adopted in many textbooks. As main difference, the instantaneous stepsize value is estimated in the M step of the EM algorithm (instead of being approximated by artificially extending the acoustic echo path). The EM-NLMS algorithm is experimentally verified for synthesized scenarios with both, white noise and male speech as input signal.

We derive a convex optimization problem for the task of segmenting sequential data, which explicitly treats presence of outliers. We describe two algorithms for solving this problem, one exact and one a top-down novel approach, and we derive a consistency results for the case of two segments and no outliers. Robustness to outliers is evaluated on two real-world tasks related to speech segmentation. Our algorithms outperform baseline segmentation algorithms.

The expressive power of a Gaussian process (GP) model comes at a cost of poor scalability in the data size. To improve its scalability, this paper presents a low-rank-cum-Markov approximation (LMA) of the GP model that is novel in leveraging the dual computational advantages stemming from complementing a low-rank approximate representation of the full-rank GP based on a support set of inputs with a Markov approximation of the resulting residual process; the latter approximation is guaranteed to be closest in the Kullback-Leibler distance criterion subject to some constraint and is considerably more refined than that of existing sparse GP models utilizing low-rank representations due to its more relaxed conditional independence assumption (especially with larger data). As a result, our LMA method can trade off between the size of the support set and the order of the Markov property to (a) incur lower computational cost than such sparse GP models while achieving predictive performance comparable to them and (b) accurately represent features/patterns of any scale. Interestingly, varying the Markov order produces a spectrum of LMAs with PIC approximation and full-rank GP at the two extremes. An advantage of our LMA method is that it is amenable to parallelization on multiple machines/cores, thereby gaining greater scalability. Empirical evaluation on three real-world datasets in clusters of up to 32 computing nodes shows that our centralized and parallel LMA methods are significantly more time-efficient and scalable than state-of-the-art sparse and full-rank GP regression methods while achieving comparable predictive performances.

Bell's Theorem shows that quantum mechanical correlations can violate the constraints that the causal structure of certain experiments impose on any classical explanation. It is thus natural to ask to which degree the causal assumptions -- e.g. locality or measurement independence -- have to be relaxed in order to allow for a classical description of such experiments. Here, we develop a conceptual and computational framework for treating this problem. We employ the language of Bayesian networks to systematically construct alternative causal structures and bound the degree of relaxation using quantitative measures that originate from the mathematical theory of causality. The main technical insight is that the resulting problems can often be expressed as computationally tractable linear programs. We demonstrate the versatility of the framework by applying it to a variety of scenarios, ranging from relaxations of the measurement independence, locality and bilocality assumptions, to a novel causal interpretation of CHSH inequality violations.

Random ferns is a machine learning algorithm proposed by [11] for matching same elements between two images of the same scene, allowing one to recognise certain objects or trace them on videos. The original motivation behind this method was to create a simple and efficient algorithm by extending the Naïve Bayes classifier; still the authors acknowledged its strong connection to the decision tree ensembles like the Random forest [2] algorithm. Since introduction, Random ferns have been applied in numerous computer vision application, like image recognition [1], action recognition [10] or augmented reality [14]. However, it has not gathered attention outside this field; thus, this work aims to bring this algorithm to a much wider spectrum of applications. In order to do that, I propose a generalised version of the algorithm, implemented as an R [13] package rFerns. The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 briefly recalls the Bayesian derivation of the original version of Random ferns, presents the decision tree ensemble interpretation of the algorithm and lists modifications leading to the rFerns variant.

Synaptic plasticity is believed to be the fundamental building block of learning and memory in the brain. Its study is of crucial importance to understanding the activity and function of neural circuits. With innovations in neural recording technology providing access to the simultaneous activity of increasingly large populations of neurons, statistical models are promising tools for formulating and testing hypotheses about the dynamics of synaptic connectivity. Advances in optical techniques (Packer et al., 2012; Hochbaum et al., 2014), for example, have made it possible to simultaneously record from and stimulate large populations of synaptically connected neurons. Armed with statistical tools capable of inferring time-varying synaptic connectivity, neuroscientists could test competing models of synaptic plasticity, discover new learning rules at the monosynaptic and network level, investigate the effects of disease on synaptic plasticity, and potentially design stimuli to modify neural networks. Despite the popularity of GLMs for spike data, relatively little work has attempted to model the time-varying nature of neural interactions. Here we model interaction weights as a dynamical system governed by parametric synaptic plasticity rules. To perform inference in this model, we use particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC) (Andrieu et al., 2010), a recently developed inference technique for complex time series. We use this new modeling framework to examine the problem of using recorded data to distinguish between proposed variants of spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) learning rules.

Crowdsourcing has become an effective and popular tool for human-powered computation to label large datasets. Since the workers can be unreliable, it is common in crowdsourcing to assign multiple workers to one task, and to aggregate the labels in order to obtain results of high quality. In this paper, we provide finite-sample exponential bounds on the error rate (in probability and in expectation) of general aggregation rules under the Dawid-Skene crowdsourcing model. The bounds are derived for multi-class labeling, and can be used to analyze many aggregation methods, including majority voting, weighted majority voting and the oracle Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) rule. We show that the oracle MAP rule approximately optimizes our upper bound on the mean error rate of weighted majority voting in certain setting. We propose an iterative weighted majority voting (IWMV) method that optimizes the error rate bound and approximates the oracle MAP rule. Its one step version has a provable theoretical guarantee on the error rate. The IWMV method is intuitive and computationally simple. Experimental results on simulated and real data show that IWMV performs at least on par with the state-of-the-art methods, and it has a much lower computational cost (around one hundred times faster) than the state-of-the-art methods.