We propose the supervised hierarchical Dirichlet process (sHDP), a nonparametric generative model for the joint distribution of a group of observations and a response variable directly associated with that whole group. We compare the sHDP with another leading method for regression on grouped data, the supervised latent Dirichlet allocation (sLDA) model. We evaluate our method on two real-world classification problems and two real-world regression problems. Bayesian nonparametric regression models based on the Dirichlet process, such as the Dirichlet process-generalised linear models (DP-GLM) have previously been explored; these models allow flexibility in modelling nonlinear relationships. However, until now, Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP) mixtures have not seen significant use in supervised problems with grouped data since a straightforward application of the HDP on the grouped data results in learnt clusters that are not predictive of the responses. The sHDP solves this problem by allowing for clusters to be learnt jointly from the group structure and from the label assigned to each group.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a workhorse of probabilistic modeling and inference, but are difficult to debug, and are prone to silent failure if implemented naïvely. We outline several strategies for testing the correctness of MCMC algorithms. Specifically, we advocate writing code in a modular way, where conditional probability calculations are kept separate from the logic of the sampler. We discuss strategies for both unit testing and integration testing. As a running example, we show how a Python implementation of Gibbs sampling for a mixture of Gaussians model can be tested.

We provide guarantees for learning latent variable models emphasizing on the overcomplete regime, where the dimensionality of the latent space can exceed the observed dimensionality. In particular, we consider multiview mixtures, spherical Gaussian mixtures, ICA, and sparse coding models. We provide tight concentration bounds for empirical moments through novel covering arguments. We analyze parameter recovery through a simple tensor power update algorithm. In the semi-supervised setting, we exploit the label or prior information to get a rough estimate of the model parameters, and then refine it using the tensor method on unlabeled samples. We establish that learning is possible when the number of components scales as $k=o(d^{p/2})$, where $d$ is the observed dimension, and $p$ is the order of the observed moment employed in the tensor method. Our concentration bound analysis also leads to minimax sample complexity for semi-supervised learning of spherical Gaussian mixtures. In the unsupervised setting, we use a simple initialization algorithm based on SVD of the tensor slices, and provide guarantees under the stricter condition that $k\le \beta d$ (where constant $\beta$ can be larger than $1$), where the tensor method recovers the components under a polynomial running time (and exponential in $\beta$). Our analysis establishes that a wide range of overcomplete latent variable models can be learned efficiently with low computational and sample complexity through tensor decomposition methods.

Feature learning forms the cornerstone for tackling challenging learning problems in domains such as speech, computer vision and natural language processing. In this paper, we consider a novel class of matrix and tensor-valued features, which can be pre-trained using unlabeled samples. We present efficient algorithms for extracting discriminative information, given these pre-trained features and labeled samples for any related task. Our class of features are based on higher-order score functions, which capture local variations in the probability density function of the input. We establish a theoretical framework to characterize the nature of discriminative information that can be extracted from score-function features, when used in conjunction with labeled samples. We employ efficient spectral decomposition algorithms (on matrices and tensors) for extracting discriminative components. The advantage of employing tensor-valued features is that we can extract richer discriminative information in the form of an overcomplete representations. Thus, we present a novel framework for employing generative models of the input for discriminative learning.

Bayesian methods suffer from the problem of how to specify prior beliefs. One interesting idea is to consider worst-case priors. This requires solving a stochastic zero-sum game. In this paper, we extend well-known results from bandit theory in order to discover minimax-Bayes policies and discuss when they are practical.

This work presents a technique for statistically modeling errors introduced by reduced-order models. The method employs Gaussian-process regression to construct a mapping from a small number of computationally inexpensive `error indicators' to a distribution over the true error. The variance of this distribution can be interpreted as the (epistemic) uncertainty introduced by the reduced-order model. To model normed errors, the method employs existing rigorous error bounds and residual norms as indicators; numerical experiments show that the method leads to a near-optimal expected effectivity in contrast to typical error bounds. To model errors in general outputs, the method uses dual-weighted residuals---which are amenable to uncertainty control---as indicators. Experiments illustrate that correcting the reduced-order-model output with this surrogate can improve prediction accuracy by an order of magnitude; this contrasts with existing `multifidelity correction' approaches, which often fail for reduced-order models and suffer from the curse of dimensionality. The proposed error surrogates also lead to a notion of `probabilistic rigor', i.e., the surrogate bounds the error with specified probability.

We propose a Bayesian framework of Gaussian process in order to extend Fisher's discriminant to classify functional data such as spectra and images. The probability structure for our extended Fisher's discriminant is explicitly formulated, and we utilize the smoothness assumptions of functional data as prior probabilities. Existing methods which directly employ the smoothness assumption of functional data can be shown as special cases within this framework given corresponding priors while their estimates of the unknowns are one-step approximations to the proposed MAP estimates. Empirical results on various simulation studies and different real applications show that the proposed method significantly outperforms the other Fisher's discriminant methods for functional data.

In many domains, scientists build complex simulators of natural phenomena that encode their hypotheses about the underlying processes. These simulators can be deterministic or stochastic, fast or slow, constrained or unconstrained, and so on. Optimizing the simulators with respect to a set of parameter values is common practice, resulting in a single parameter setting that minimizes an objective subject to constraints. We propose a post optimization posterior analysis that computes and visualizes all the models that can generate equally good or better simulation results, subject to constraints. These optimization posteriors are desirable for a number of reasons among which easy interpretability, automatic parameter sensitivity and correlation analysis and posterior predictive analysis. We develop a new sampling framework based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) with one-sided kernels. In collaboration with two groups of scientists we applied POPE to two important biological simulators: a fast and stochastic simulator of stem-cell cycling and a slow and deterministic simulator of tumor growth patterns.

Predictive rate-distortion analysis suffers from the curse of dimensionality: clustering arbitrarily long pasts to retain information about arbitrarily long futures requires resources that typically grow exponentially with length. The challenge is compounded for infinite-order Markov processes, since conditioning on finite sequences cannot capture all of their past dependencies. Spectral arguments show that algorithms which cluster finite-length sequences fail dramatically when the underlying process has long-range temporal correlations and can fail even for processes generated by finite-memory hidden Markov models. We circumvent the curse of dimensionality in rate-distortion analysis of infinite-order processes by casting predictive rate-distortion objective functions in terms of the forward- and reverse-time causal states of computational mechanics. Examples demonstrate that the resulting causal rate-distortion theory substantially improves current predictive rate-distortion analyses.

This paper presents a novel Block Iterative Bayesian Algorithm (Block-IBA) for reconstructing block-sparse signals with unknown block structures. Unlike the existing algorithms for block sparse signal recovery which assume the cluster structure of the nonzero elements of the unknown signal to be independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.), we use a more realistic Bernoulli-Gaussian hidden Markov model (BGHMM) to characterize the non-i.i.d. block-sparse signals commonly encountered in practice. The Block-IBA iteratively estimates the amplitudes and positions of the block-sparse signal using the steepest-ascent based Expectation-Maximization (EM), and optimally selects the nonzero elements of the block-sparse signal by adaptive thresholding. The global convergence of Block-IBA is analyzed and proved, and the effectiveness of Block-IBA is demonstrated by numerical experiments and simulations on synthetic and real-life data.