Learning Graphical Models
More Than Irrational: Modeling Belief-Biased Agents
Zhu, Yifan, Katt, Sammie, Kaski, Samuel
Despite the explosive growth of AI and the technologies built upon it, predicting and inferring the sub-optimal behavior of users or human collaborators remains a critical challenge. In many cases, such behaviors are not a result of irrationality, but rather a rational decision made given inherent cognitive bounds and biased beliefs about the world. In this paper, we formally introduce a class of computational-rational (CR) user models for cognitively-bounded agents acting optimally under biased beliefs. The key novelty lies in explicitly modeling how a bounded memory process leads to a dynamically inconsistent and biased belief state and, consequently, sub-optimal sequential decision-making. We address the challenge of identifying the latent user-specific bound and inferring biased belief states from passive observations on the fly. We argue that for our formalized CR model family with an explicit and parameterized cognitive process, this challenge is tractable. To support our claim, we propose an efficient online inference method based on nested particle filtering that simultaneously tracks the user's latent belief state and estimates the unknown cognitive bound from a stream of observed actions. We validate our approach in a representative navigation task using memory decay as an example of a cognitive bound. With simulations, we show that (1) our CR model generates intuitively plausible behaviors corresponding to different levels of memory capacity, and (2) our inference method accurately and efficiently recovers the ground-truth cognitive bounds from limited observations ($\le 100$ steps). We further demonstrate how this approach provides a principled foundation for developing adaptive AI assistants, enabling adaptive assistance that accounts for the user's memory limitations.
Scaling Law Analysis in Federated Learning: How to Select the Optimal Model Size?
Chen, Xuanyu, Yang, Nan, Wang, Shuai, Yuan, Dong
The recent success of large language models (LLMs) has sparked a growing interest in training large-scale models. As the model size continues to scale, concerns are growing about the depletion of high-quality, well-curated training data. This has led practitioners to explore training approaches like Federated Learning (FL), which can leverage the abundant data on edge devices while maintaining privacy. However, the decentralization of training datasets in FL introduces challenges to scaling large models, a topic that remains under-explored. This paper fills this gap and provides qualitative insights on generalizing the previous model scaling experience to federated learning scenarios. Specifically, we derive a P AC-Bayes (Probably Approximately Correct Bayesian) upper bound for the generalization error of models trained with stochastic algorithms in federated settings and quantify the impact of distributed training data on the optimal model size by finding the analytic solution of model size that minimizes this bound. Our theoretical results demonstrate that the optimal model size has a negative power law relationship with the number of clients if the total training compute is unchanged. Besides, we also find that switching to FL with the same training compute will inevitably reduce the upper bound of generalization performance that the model can achieve through training, and that estimating the optimal model size in federated scenarios should depend on the average training compute across clients. Furthermore, we also empirically validate the correctness of our results with extensive training runs on different models, network settings, and datasets.
CriticSearch: Fine-Grained Credit Assignment for Search Agents via a Retrospective Critic
Zhang, Yaocheng, Huang, Haohuan, Song, Zijun, Zhu, Yuanheng, Zhang, Qichao, Zhao, Zijie, Zhao, Dongbin
Tool-Integrated Reasoning (TIR) with search engines enables large language models to iteratively retrieve up-to-date external knowledge, enhancing adaptability and generalization in complex question-answering tasks. However, existing search agent pipelines typically depend on reinforcement learning based optimization, which often suffers from sparse outcome rewards, leading to inefficient exploration and unstable training. We introduce CriticSearch, a fine-grained credit-assignment framework that supplies dense, turn-level feedback via a retrospective critic mechanism. During training, a frozen, asymmetric critique LLM retrospectively evaluates each turn using privileged information from the full trajectory and gold answers, converting these assessments into stable, dense rewards that guide policy improvement. Experimental results across diverse multi-hop reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that CriticSearch consistently outperforms existing baselines, achieving faster convergence, improved training stability, and higher performance.
Goal-Oriented Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Decentralized Agent Teams
Du, Hung, Nguyen, Hy, Thudumu, Srikanth, Vasa, Rajesh, Mouzakis, Kon
Connected and autonomous vehicles across land, water, and air must often operate in dynamic, unpredictable environments with limited communication, no centralized control, and partial observability. These real-world constraints pose significant challenges for coordination, particularly when vehicles pursue individual objectives. To address this, we propose a decentralized Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) framework that enables vehicles, acting as agents, to communicate selectively based on local goals and observations. This goal-aware communication strategy allows agents to share only relevant information, enhancing collaboration while respecting visibility limitations. We validate our approach in complex multi-agent navigation tasks featuring obstacles and dynamic agent populations. Results show that our method significantly improves task success rates and reduces time-to-goal compared to non-cooperative baselines. Moreover, task performance remains stable as the number of agents increases, demonstrating scalability. These findings highlight the potential of decentralized, goal-driven MARL to support effective coordination in realistic multi-vehicle systems operating across diverse domains.
Conformal Constrained Policy Optimization for Cost-Effective LLM Agents
Si, Wenwen, Jang, Sooyong, Lee, Insup, Bastani, Osbert
While large language models (LLMs) have recently made tremendous progress towards solving challenging AI problems, they have done so at increasingly steep computational and API costs. We propose a novel strategy where we combine multiple LLM models with varying cost/accuracy tradeoffs in an agentic manner, where models and tools are run in sequence as determined by an orchestration model to minimize cost subject to a user-specified level of reliability; this constraint is formalized using conformal prediction to provide guarantees. To solve this problem, we propose Conformal Constrained Policy Optimization (CCPO), a training paradigm that integrates constrained policy optimization with off-policy reinforcement learning and recent advances in online conformal prediction. CCPO jointly optimizes a cost-aware policy (score function) and an adaptive threshold. Across two multi-hop question answering benchmarks, CCPO achieves up to a 30% cost reduction compared to other cost-aware baselines and LLM-guided methods without compromising reliability. Our approach provides a principled and practical framework for deploying LLM agents that are significantly more cost-effective while maintaining reliability.
Diffusion Models: A Mathematical Introduction
Maleki, Sepehr, Pourmoazemi, Negar
We present a concise, self-contained derivation of diffusion-based generative models. Starting from basic properties of Gaussian distributions (densities, quadratic expectations, re-parameterisation, products, and KL divergences), we construct denoising diffusion probabilistic models from first principles. This includes the forward noising process, its closed-form marginals, the exact discrete reverse posterior, and the related variational bound. This bound simplifies to the standard noise-prediction goal used in practice. We then discuss likelihood estimation and accelerated sampling, covering DDIM, adversarially learned reverse dynamics (DDGAN), and multi-scale variants such as nested and latent diffusion, with Stable Diffusion as a canonical example. A continuous-time formulation follows, in which we derive the probability-flow ODE from the diffusion SDE via the continuity and Fokker-Planck equations, introduce flow matching, and show how rectified flows recover DDIM up to a time re-parameterisation. Finally, we treat guided diffusion, interpreting classifier guidance as a posterior score correction and classifier-free guidance as a principled interpolation between conditional and unconditional scores. Throughout, the focus is on transparent algebra, explicit intermediate steps, and consistent notation, so that readers can both follow the theory and implement the corresponding algorithms in practice.
Enhancing Reinforcement Learning in 3D Environments through Semantic Segmentation: A Case Study in ViZDoom
Reinforcement learning (RL) in 3D environments with high-dimensional sensory input poses two major challenges: (1) the high memory consumption induced by memory buffers required to stabilise learning, and (2) the complexity of learning in partially observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). This project addresses these challenges by proposing two novel input representations: SS-only and RGB+SS, both employing semantic segmentation on RGB colour images. Experiments were conducted in deathmatches of ViZDoom, utilizing perfect segmentation results for controlled evaluation. Our results showed that SS-only was able to reduce the memory consumption of memory buffers by at least 66.6%, and up to 98.6% when a vectorisable lossless compression technique with minimal overhead such as run-length encoding is applied. Meanwhile, RGB+SS significantly enhances RL agents' performance with the additional semantic information provided. Furthermore, we explored density-based heatmapping as a tool to visualise RL agents' movement patterns and evaluate their suitability for data collection. A brief comparison with a previous approach highlights how our method overcame common pitfalls in applying semantic segmentation in 3D environments like ViZDoom.
Convergence of Multiagent Learning Systems for Traffic control
Sen, Sayambhu, Bhatnagar, Shalabh
Rapid urbanization in cities like Bangalore has led to severe traffic congestion, making efficient Traffic Signal Control (TSC) essential. Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL), often modeling each traffic signal as an independent agent using Q-learning, has emerged as a promising strategy to reduce average commuter delays. While prior work Prashant L A et. al has empirically demonstrated the effectiveness of this approach, a rigorous theoretical analysis of its stability and convergence properties in the context of traffic control has not been explored. This paper bridges that gap by focusing squarely on the theoretical basis of this multi-agent algorithm. We investigate the convergence problem inherent in using independent learners for the cooperative TSC task. Utilizing stochastic approximation methods, we formally analyze the learning dynamics. The primary contribution of this work is the proof that the specific multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithm for traffic control is proven to converge under the given conditions extending it from single agent convergence proofs for asynchronous value iteration.
How Data Quality Affects Machine Learning Models for Credit Risk Assessment
Machine Learning (ML) models are being increasingly employed for credit risk evaluation, with their effectiveness largely hinging on the quality of the input data. In this paper we investigate the impact of several data quality issues, including missing values, noisy attributes, outliers, and label errors, on the predictive accuracy of the machine learning model used in credit risk assessment. Utilizing an open-source dataset, we introduce controlled data corruption using the Pucktrick library to assess the robustness of 10 frequently used models like Random Forest, SVM, and Logistic Regression and so on. Our experiments show significant differences in model robustness based on the nature and severity of the data degradation. Moreover, the proposed methodology and accompanying tools offer practical support for practitioners seeking to enhance data pipeline robustness, and provide researchers with a flexible framework for further experimentation in data-centric AI contexts.
Good-for-MDP State Reduction for Stochastic LTL Planning
Weinhuber, Christoph, De Giacomo, Giuseppe, Li, Yong, Schewe, Sven, Tang, Qiyi
We study stochastic planning problems in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with goals specified in Linear Temporal Logic (LTL). The state-of-the-art approach transforms LTL formulas into good-for-MDP (GFM) automata, which feature a restricted form of nondeterminism. These automata are then composed with the MDP, allowing the agent to resolve the nondeterminism during policy synthesis. A major factor affecting the scalability of this approach is the size of the generated automata. In this paper, we propose a novel GFM state-space reduction technique that significantly reduces the number of automata states. Our method employs a sophisticated chain of transformations, leveraging recent advances in good-for-games minimisation developed for adversarial settings. In addition to our theoretical contributions, we present empirical results demonstrating the practical effectiveness of our state-reduction technique. Furthermore, we introduce a direct construction method for formulas of the form $\mathsf{G}\mathsf{F}φ$, where $φ$ is a co-safety formula. This construction is provably single-exponential in the worst case, in contrast to the general doubly-exponential complexity. Our experiments confirm the scalability advantages of this specialised construction.