Innovative methods have been developed for diagnosis, activity monitoring, and state estimation that achieve high accuracy through the use of stochastic models involving hybrid discrete and continuous behaviors. A key bottleneck is the automated acquisition of these hybrid models, and recent methods have focused predominantly on Jump Markov processes and piecewise autoregressive models. In this paper, we present a novel algorithm capable of performing unsupervised learning of guarded Probabilistic Hybrid Automata (PHA) models, which extends prior work by allowing stochastic discrete mode transitions in a hybrid system to have a functional dependence on its continuous state. Our experiments indicate that guarded PHA models can yield significant performance improvements when used by hybrid state estimators, particularly when diagnosing the true discrete mode of the system, without any noticeable impact on their real-time performance.

Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) provides a formal framework for optimal exploration-exploitation tradeoff in reinforcement learning. Unfortunately, it is generally intractable to find the Bayes-optimal behavior except for restricted cases. As a consequence, many BRL algorithms, model-based approaches in particular, rely on approximated models or real-time search methods. In this paper, we present potential-based shaping for improving the learning performance in model-based BRL. We propose a number of potential functions that are particularly well suited for BRL, and are domain-independent in the sense that they do not require any prior knowledge about the actual environment. By incorporating the potential function into real-time heuristic search, we show that we can significantly improve the learning performance in standard benchmark domains.

Advice giving has been long explored in artificial intelligence to build robust learning algorithms. We consider advice giving in relational domains where the noise is systematic. The advice is provided as logical statements that are then explicitly considered by the learning algorithm at every update. Our empirical evidence proves that human advice can effectively accelerate learning in noisy structured domains where so far humans have been merely used as labelers or as designers of initial structure of the model.

We present a probabilistic extension of logic programs under the stable model semantics, inspired by the concept of Markov Logic Networks. The proposed language takes advantage of both formalisms in a single framework, allowing us to represent commonsense reasoning problems that require both logical and probabilistic reasoning in an intuitive and elaboration tolerant way.

Documents from the same domain usually discuss similar topics in a similar order. However, the number of topics and the exact topics discussed in each individual document can vary. In this paper we present a simple topic model that uses generalised Mallows models and incomplete topic orderings to incorporate this ordering regularity into the probabilistic generative process of the new model. We show how to reparameterise the new model so that a point-wise sampling algorithm from the Bayesian word segmentation literature can be used for inference. This algorithm jointly samples not only the topic orders and the topic assignments but also topic segmentations of documents. Experimental results show that our model performs significantly better than the other ordering-based topic models on nearly all the corpora that we used, and competitively with other state-of-the-art topic segmentation models on corpora that have a strong ordering regularity.

Bayesian decision-theory underpins robust decision-making in applications ranging from plant control to robotics where hedging action selection against state uncertainty is critical for minimizing low probability but potentially catastrophic outcomes (e.g, uncontrollable plant conditions or robots falling into stairwells). Unfortunately, belief state distributions in such settings are often complex and/or high dimensional, thus prohibiting the efficient application of analytical techniques for expected utility computation when real-time control is required. This leaves Monte Carlo evaluation as one of the few viable (and hence frequently used) techniques for online action selection. However, loss-insensitive Monte Carlo methods may require large numbers of samples to identify optimal actions with high certainty since they may sample from highprobability regions that do not disambiguate action utilities. In this paper we remedy this problem by deriving an optimal proposal distribution for a loss-calibrated Monte Carlo importance sampler that bounds the regret of using an estimated optimal action. Empirically, we show that using our loss-calibrated Monte Carlo method yields high-accuracy optimal action selections in a fraction of the number of samples required by conventional loss-insensitive samplers.

Manually labeling documents for training a text classifier is expensive and time-consuming. Moreover, a classifier trained on labeled documents may suffer from overfitting and adaptability problems. Dataless text classification (DLTC) has been proposed as a solution to these problems, since it does not require labeled documents. Previous research in DLTC has used explicit semantic analysis of Wikipedia content to measure semantic distance between documents, which is in turn used to classify test documents based on nearest neighbours. The semantic-based DLTC method has a major drawback in that it relies on a large-scale, finely-compiled semantic knowledge base, which is difficult to obtain in many scenarios. In this paper we propose a novel kind of model, descriptive LDA (DescLDA), which performs DLTC with only category description words and unlabeled documents. In DescLDA, the LDA model is assembled with a describing device to infer Dirichlet priors from prior descriptive documents created with category description words. The Dirichlet priors are then used by LDA to induce category-aware latent topics from unlabeled documents. Experimental results with the 20Newsgroups and RCV1 datasets show that: (1) our DLTC method is more effective than the semantic-based DLTC baseline method; and (2) the accuracy of our DLTC method is very close to state-of-the-art supervised text classification methods. As neither external knowledge resources nor labeled documents are required, our DLTC method is applicable to a wider range of scenarios.

In the analysis and diagnosis of many diseases, such as the Alzheimer's disease (AD), two important and related tasks are usually required: i) selecting genetic and phenotypical markers for diagnosis, and ii) identifying associations between genetic and phenotypical features. While previous studies treat these two tasks separately, they are tightly coupled due to the same underlying biological basis. To harness their potential benefits for each other, we propose a new sparse Bayesian approach to jointly carry out the two important and related tasks. In our approach, we extract common latent features from different data sources by sparse projection matrices and then use the latent features to predict disease severity levels; in return, the disease status can guide the learning of sparse projection matrices, which not only reveal interactions between data sources but also select groups of related biomarkers. In order to boost the learning of sparse projection matrices, we further incorporate graph Laplacian priors encoding the valuable linkage disequilibrium (LD) information. To efficiently estimate the model, we develop a variational inference algorithm. Analysis on an imaging genetics dataset for AD study shows that our model discovers biologically meaningful associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features, and achieves significantly higher accuracy for predicting ordinal AD stages than competitive methods.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) with large number of states are of high practical interest. However, conventional algorithms to solve MDP are computationally infeasible in this scenario. Approximate dynamic programming (ADP) methods tackle this issue by computing approximate solutions. A widely applied ADP method is approximate linear program (ALP) which makes use of linear function approximation and offers theoretical performance guarantees. Nevertheless, the ALP is difficult to solve due to the presence of a large number of constraints and in practice, a reduced linear program (RLP) is solved instead. The RLP has a tractable number of constraints sampled from the original constraints of the ALP. Though the RLP is known to perform well in experiments, theoretical guarantees are available only for a specific RLP obtained under idealized assumptions. In this paper, we generalize the RLP to define a generalized reduced linear program (GRLP) which has a tractable number of constraints that are obtained as positive linear combinations of the original constraints of the ALP. The main contribution of this paper is the novel theoretical framework developed to obtain error bounds for any given GRLP. Central to our framework are two max-norm contraction operators. Our result theoretically justifies linear approximation of constraints. We discuss the implication of our results in the contexts of ADP and reinforcement learning. We also demonstrate via an example in the domain of controlled queues that the experiments conform to the theory.

Sum-product networks (SPNs) are a recently-proposed deep architecture that guarantees tractable inference, even on certain high-treewidth models. SPNs are a propositional architecture, treating the instances as independent and identically distributed. In this paper, we introduce Relational Sum-Product Networks (RSPNs), a new tractable first-order probabilistic architecture. RSPNs generalize SPNs by modeling a set of instances jointly, allowing them to influence each other's probability distributions, as well as modeling probabilities of relations between objects. We also present LearnRSPN, the first algorithm for learning high-treewidth tractable statistical relational models. LearnRSPN is a recursive top-down structure learning algorithm for RSPNs, based on Gens and Domingos' LearnSPN algorithm for propositional SPN learning. We evaluate the algorithm on three datasets; the RSPN learning algorithm outperforms Markov Logic Networks in both running time and predictive accuracy.